Transmogrified Tiger

Last year was a record high payroll that went into the LT, and they're less than 17M from that mark now. They aren't so devoid of other avenues for improvement that I really doubt they're going to be in for someone guaranteed to make 20+ AAV. If they did, a Chapman reunion would seem more likely for multiple reasons.

To play devil's advocate, I think having something that keeps baseball in the news over the winter months similar to the NFL and NBA free agency's Day 1 rush is probably a net positive for interest. I also am not convinced that adding time urgency is automatically leading to ownership leverage/suppressing salaries. But ultimately I don't think it's a capital P Problem you spend any effort solving, never mind the backlash that shortening it might inspire from some(particularly the PA).

Maybe Boras can sweet talk Arte Moreno into overriding his GM or hold a seance with the ghost of Mike Ilitch or something, but demanding a total value that high isn't going to make an offer at that level manifest itself. I'd say at this point given who the suitors are and how many have essentially shut themselves off from a contract of that size with other moves, I'd put heavy odds against Bellinger getting 200 million this offseason. If he does it likely would come through some elaborate option/opt-out machinations.

This is the question for me. If I can oversimplify in terms of total contract value: 175+: Cody/Boras would likely accept, there doesn't appear to be any team particularly interested at this level 130-175: Unclear if Cody/Boras would accept, they may prefer short term/opt-outs over this. Unclear how many teams interested at this level, probably a few 90-130: Cody/Boras may eventually accept on a short term/opt-out deal, likely a number of teams interested at this level Obviously there are shades of gray because you can have a larger guarantee that also has opt-outs, but I think that illustrates the tension. No one wants to give Cody/Boras the top line number they want(or maybe close to it), and there's a lot of haggling on what they actually will accept once they start dipping below that line, since Cody/Boras may want to go well under it for a short term deal to be able to get the big top line number after another year. One thing that does work in the Cubs favor is they have maximum information on Cody, and Cody clearly loves playing in Chicago, so even in a shorter deal where we go from barely any aggressive suitors to many, they should still be in good position if they choose to do so.

This is really the thing for me. Is he the good/prime version of Ryu, or are the HR systemic enough that he's more like the post-prime version of Ryu(or Maeda, to use another import). If it's the former then I'm not overly cowed by the 9 figure contract, but if you aren't really sure then you're setting up risk of another FA SP that lands like Taillon did(though I don't think Taillon's 2023 is necessarily his future), and without the stuff to dream on fixing things or overpowering his shortcomings.

The caveat that I would give is that it still persistently sounds like they're trying multiple trade angles, and if part of getting their preferred targets means some of the bullpen depth goes out the door, then I don't mind a middle reliever signing. But if it's a situation where only like 1 of Wesneski/Assad/Brown are leaving, then save your bullets for elsewhere and keep trying your hand at finding another Leiter or Merryweather for essentially free. As an aside, I kinda wonder if there's a RP we have penciled in that the team has basically written off, at least for the opening day roster. You saw with Wick that they are not afraid of being preemptive with middle relievers not getting a roster spot on past reputation even if they haven't collapsed, and there's a spot or two(looking at you, Leiter) that could be ripe for a similar move.

Picking the three teams that have a big revenue advantage over the other 27 as the 'actually tries to win at baseball' dividing line is very funny. Also, the Dodgers are not blowing out their payroll like the Cohen Mets, they are spending big but are closer to 3rd in the NL than they are to 1st. Their offseason is a combination of being well run(FAs know they'll compete), having a huge revenue advantage over everyone else(their TV deal is a near 9 figure head start on 2nd place), losing a bunch of money off their payroll(Bauer + Kershaw + Urias alone is ~57 million), and having a built-in geographical advantage(LA is "close" to Japan and rich people love living there).

Sharma has been persistent in making sure to drop Alonso's name, so you do start to wonder. I don't think this is literally true, but there's maybe a 'don't have to deal with Boras' premium they might be willing to pay in trade or in a possible Alonso extension given how much of the bigger names have to go through him at this point in the offseason

I'm not familiar with Arizona Phil having broken news or revealed anything that wasn't otherwise widely reported. Generally speaking, when he starts talking anything related to roster building, I tune out. That in particular looks like he's just pattern matching the lack of movement thus far with something he believes to be true about last year. There's about 5 different ways I would hesitate to make the same extrapolation, and especially given the phrasing I wouldn't really put stock into it.

Giving Breslow a favored pet pitching prospect down system for Jansen is an idea I don't hate on its face.

The Braves are low key Dombrowskiing their roster build, curious if they end up in a stuck place in the next 24 months or so.

BBTV has Westburg as half of PCA’s value, and that’s with a bump from listing him as a primary 2B/backup SS

Santander for Stroman was the idea I thought might have some steam, before Stroman opted out. I’m not sure if Assad or Wesneski move the needle enough despite not being unfair value, but if that is a possibility its a move that gives you more outs with the rest of the offseason so I’d be fine with it happening quickly.

Is imagining absurd scenarios where Jed is like the GM version of Mr. Bean some type of weird, unnecessary coping mechanism for people? Should we theorize if he's spent the entire offseason trying to figure out Boras's phone number, I mean what are we doing here

Something I think about every now and then is when I got banned from a White Sox message board. Ahead of a crosstown series I had made some posts that were not hostile, but probably ended up antagonistic given my pro-Cubs disposition. I don't think the folks at WSI are community builders to emulate, but it did teach me something that I think is true. You ultimately build a place *for* the community, and on the margins it's the experience of the community that matters more than others antagonizing the community even if they do so in ways that aren't objectively against the rules. That said, that doesn't mean the community is always right, and every long standing member doesn't speak for the group. For example, the initial reaction to Brandon's article was absurd, and unnecessarily raised the temperature of the conversation and made it more likely that folks who might have different opinions would be upset or inspired to respond. Personally, I have not seen a huge influx of people being combative in those off topic spaces. There's been a couple people who have gotten in arguments, but nothing that we haven't seen before and that didn't mostly self-regulate, since folks who find it a fun pastime to argue with a group of people who think opposite of themselves all the time typically aren't great rule followers themselves.

I'm not a single issue voter on velocity, but Manaea is 32, sits 90-91 as a SP, and requires a multi-year 8 figure commitment, all of which are very much not what I have in mind. The thinking is to gamble on upside because you have the depth in Wicks, Horton, and whatever of the rest(Assad, Wesneski, Brown) remain. EDIT: I missed that Manaea did get a velo bump from working with Driveline(though uncertain how that carries to a full starter workload), but the larger point still remains.

Manaea opted out of 12.5 million so he's probably pretty eager to sign a multi-year deal, which isn't how I would want a 2nd SP handled unless there's some significant change in circumstances. Without putting a ton of thought into the individual repertoires/fits, I'd probably prefer the likes of Velasquez, Turnbull, Montas, or Odorizzi on 1 year deals, though what I *really* want is to buy low on a stuff monster SP that hasn't put it together(Edward Cabrera being the pinnacle)

Yes, i think there’s absolutely money for that permutation, and I don’t think it’s true that it’s either that or your best trade assets out there door to get a SP.

Well sure, on the hierarchy of needs having that 2nd bat falls beneath having a playoff series SP. But there's no sign those are mutually exclusive that I can see. You can still do the above and sign Imanaga or Montgomery or trade for Bieber or Cease or maybe a Marlins or Mariners SP.

He could, but the point is that he doesn't have to. You could get Bellinger and Hoskins and still have the aforementioned 6 players for 5 spots between Happ/Bellinger/Suzuki/PCA/Hoskins/Morel. This lets you minimize the pressure on PCA's bat, hedges against injury and underperformance, and lets the team have a higher floor day to day. Long story short, we worry a bit too much about having a neat place in the ideal 9 person lineup when that is basically never the circumstance the team ends up playing in.

Suzuki mostly DHs, he's at almost 250 MLB games in RF as an average at best defender. Also, and I apologize for making this point before, but you can get away just fine with 6 guys for 5 spots(OF + 1B/DH) even if you want all 6 to get 'starter' playing time. That's 135 games per person, and when you add up injuries, rest, matchup preferences, and PCA preferably not breaking camp with the big league team, it ends up being a solved problem or (rarely) a luxury.

You can play Bellinger in RF, and if you look at what it took for, say, Adolis Garcia to put up a near 5 win season from that position, that feels like an entirely reasonable outcome to invest in as the 'if PCA is in fact good' contingency.

Several weeks ago, probably. But since then potential Bellinger suitors have filled holes with Lee, Garver, and Kiermaier, while some may prefer fellow Boras client Chapman at this point, so the appetite to do so in January is far less certain. Hence the likelihood that he ends up stuck with a Correa deal, possibly because Boras overplayed his hand. Or maybe he signs with the tigers for 8/220 or something in the next few days. It only takes one, but the pool to find that one is shrinking.

I suspect if there was a team ready and willing to give Bellinger 200 million, especially straight without any option machinations, he’d be signed by now. At this point I’d say there’s better odds of him taking Correa’s short term deal than it is he gets a 180+ million guarantee.