He's actually performed at a high level before, none of those guys have. Career ERA+ of 112. You might be lucky to get 100 innings of 90 ERA+ out of any of those other options. Miller might be able to give you 150 inning at 100-110, and it wouldn't be ridiculous if he gave you 190 innings at 120 ERA+. What makes Miller more likely to be good than any of the younger guys? The Cubs made the playoffs the last time he threw a full season, he had major rotator cuff surgery, and he was terrible in his brief stint in the majors this year. Miller's terrible end of 2006 was still much better than any of the young guys besides Hill end of 2006. Nope. Miller: 21.2 IP, 1.71 WHIP, 1.11 K/BB, 1.66 HR/9, .232/.376/.402/.771 line against Marshall: 125.2 IP, 1.52 WHIP, 1.30 K/BB, 1.43 HR/9, .270/.356/.444/.795 line against Marmol: 77 IP, 1.69 WHIP, 1.00 K/BB, 1.63 HR/9, .250/.386/.482/.862 line against Guzman: 56 IP, 1.88 WHIP, 1.62 K/BB, 1.44 HR/9, .308/.416/.507/.915 line against Mateo: 45.2 IP, 1.62 WHIP, 1.52 K/BB, 1.18 HR/9, .288/.376/.475/.841 line against Ryu: 15 IP, 1.93 WHIP, 2.83 K/BB, 4.26 HR/9, .348/.419/.758/1.160 line against