Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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The Terrible Umpires Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to TruffleShuffle's topic in General Baseball Talk
All you need is the URL of the tweet, if that gives you issues try getting rid of everything after the question mark you might see in the URL(including the question mark itself). -
General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
They look like the Philly Jawns, brought to you by Ed Hardy -
I vaguely recall the Petriello tweet, but what I was mostly reacting to was Bryan Smith pointing out 2023 numbers: There's some room for optimism given the peripherals and I don't want to suggest that's a permanent state of being for him, but as part of trying to win games and balance workloads I do think that's a place where we may see him shielded a bit. They currently aren't slated to face a LHSP for the next 3 series at least so he won't be in/out on strict platoon grounds for a while either.
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Really hard to see how this could be a positive in any way, absent other rule changes to keep the downsides in check. More roster spots just means more relievers/pitcher specialization, lengthening games and taking us further down the track of pitchers being anonymized like NFL running backs. Same thing with longer benches that promote more platoons. In both cases you'd see suppressed service time/arb salaries/FA contracts as a result, so aside from the extra service time days for the ~900th best player in the game, there's not much upside for players either. You could change some rules to hedge against this(double hook DH, overhaul service time), but you should do those anyway since there's no compelling benefit to upping rosters. The sport doesn't become more compelling with arbitrarily deeper benches, it's the opposite in practice in all likelihood.
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Jokes aside, this will be an interesting first test of how optimized Counsell wants to make matchups. In AAA Busch was not great against elite velo, combined with Hendricks GB tendencies it might be a good day to go with Tauchman and Madrigal and push Busch to the bench(Bellinger 1B, Morel DH)
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Minor League Discussion & Box, 4-4-24
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I mean this in the nicest way possible since I want them to succeed too: stop putting Canario in a class with PCA, Alcantara, and other current MLB starters. He's a 4th OF, every org has a version of him. Maybe he hits his 95th percentile outcome and becomes non-peak Marcell Ozuna, but when that's your 95th percentile outcome it kinda tells you what you need to know about their outlook. Combine that with Alcantara being a year behind, Bellinger's potential opt out, and one or both of Caissie/Seiya probably being a DH in 2025+, it's a problem that will almost certainly resolve itself. -
Hendricks against the Dodgers at Wrigley? You know what time it is
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A's to Sacramento, then maybe Vegas?
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Banedon's topic in General Baseball Talk
Giants have and would block it -
Minor League Musings
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
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pretty salty about that 0-1 call, not hard to see that being the difference in Bryant being on base or not
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If the Cubs are incredibly good this year, like best in the league good, they will lose 60 games. Two *months* worth of crummy starting pitching, blown leads, weak contact, and striking out in clutch. Happens to everyone, the best teams, that ones that pay all the money, whatever. Sometimes a bad thing that happens in an individual game is just that, a bad thing that isn't a team's character flaw. When it's the 6th game of the season, and you're freaking out about not spending enough when Neris blew the lead and like 2 guys signed for money than him, it's definitely that and not a character flaw in the team.
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Sometimes relievers will give up runs
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Christopher the bar is so low please stop tripping over it
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darkly funny that the ump had a tight zone the whole inning and then Seiya steps up and immediately gets called for a pitch 3 inches outside
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Early-season trends that may or may not end up meaningful
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The Pirates are a great example of a team that looks pretty good if you assume positive outcomes happen at a disproportionate rate, and also don't assume anything negative unexpected happening. No one on the roster projects to a 120 wRC+, half of their 'good' hitters you need to assume unexpected 2023 progress continues(or starts, in the case of Cruz), and the bottom of the lineup is pretty dire for being a depth based lineup like the Cubs have largely done. The pitching will get reinforced with Skenes at some point but it will be muted compared to his reputation(he's not facing any lineup a 2nd time yet, and his cautious buildup means he's not gonna make 25+ MLB starts). Even with Skenes the rotation isn't going to carry an offense on its back, and they don't project to be a particularly great defensive team. They won 76 games by beating pythag by 5 games last year, and that's about where they are this year in my estimation. That could serve as a springboard to a better 2025 if they're smart about their additions and lucky about who plays well though. -
The White Sox also play tomorrow so there's less runway to wait and see how conditions change.
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Little has thrown on back to back days once in his professional career, and the one time he did it the second outing was 0.2 IP and 7 pitches. It's not something he's accustomed to, and there's no reason to push him into the unknown in cold, crummy weather to try to steal another inning when they have 7 other pitchers they can call on(several which could go multiple IP) and an off day tomorrow. Said another way, some other managers are probably just starting Brown today since he's likely to get the most outs, but instead of having e.g. Brown go 3.2, Smyly go 1.2, and Little go .2 in order to get to the 7th, they (correctly) believe the best matchups to succeed with those folks are having Little pitch the first and then (probably) Brown pick it up from there.
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If you're planning on Little throwing multiple innings today, I don't think he throws 18 pitches at the end of last night's game. I suspect he's there to go one inning against the top of the order that is somewhat lefty-dense, then they'll have Brown and possibly Smyly go multiple innings behind him. I'd guess Brown goes first to face the more RHH heavy bottom half at least twice and since he's had more rest, but the game can dictate that. With the off day tomorrow you can have a quick hook and all of your best relievers are on 2 days rest. This would also provide an explanation of why Little did throw in the 9th yesterday, process of elimination. He didn't want to use the late inning circle of trust(Alzolay, Neris, Merryweather, Leiter) in a blowout, Almonte was down from throwing on Monday, and they're hoping for length from Smyly/Brown today. With Cuas throwing the 7th and 8th that only leaves Little.
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Early-season trends that may or may not end up meaningful
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The NL Central as a whole is playing at a 116 win pace. -
PCA’s looper
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I know either way he's going one inning to matchup with Blackmon/Jones, but what's the logic for letting Little pitch the 9th in a decided game if that's the plan
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good grief Cody
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you're just saying that because they're .500 now and winning by 6 runs against a bad team
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The Rockies OF defense has reached the level of performance art
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guessing Statcast clocked Cooper as high as 8 ft/s on that one
