Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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haha, even the well thrown ball Tebow throws was a duck
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Nice to see Duke playing a true road game outside the B10 Challenge, they must've been waiting for the Democrats to get the White House back before trying that again.
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LH RF trade option?
Transmogrified Tiger replied to 8654's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I'd still like to see how much it would take to get a Baldelli/DeRosa/Fontenot for 2B/RF combo. -
Castro doesn't seem like much, although he might develop a little as a reliever. Hopefully he has good stuff. Waddell looks like a LOOGY candidate, although LH have hit him hard in different years. Johnson is an older Koyie Hill. I wonder if that's an indicator Hill will back up Soto, or that Hill won't be back in any capacity?
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Would anyone actually miss Marquis?
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Ski's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
His second half ERA was 4.66, 4.44 in the first half. -
LH RF trade option?
Transmogrified Tiger replied to 8654's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Everyone is better than Ibanez. Felix Pie is better than Ibanez. -
Did you ever see Secret Window?
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Florida 31-7 Oklahoma 49-31
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I'm pretty sure we're going to put up some points, but Bradford's hand is the only avenue to the game being close at the end. Hopefully they aren't as effective without much ability to go under center, and if Mizzou can get around the line and hit Bradford a few times, maybe he gets knocked out of the game by landing on that hand or something.
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I'd say Soriano's pretty used to being a leadoff hitter. Personally, I'd rather have him there than Roberts, and it's no contest when we have to give up the world to get Roberts.
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So Oklahoma is going to ruin my chance at seeing Mizzou play Ohio State two years in a row? That sucks.
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So it's all just a big, flukey coincidence that he's pitched so above-averagishly on the road and awesomely at home. Yes, like it's a big fluky coincidence that he's pitched awesomely on the road 3 of the last 5 years, and the 2 he didn't he had injury troubles.
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So only 5-6 teams have comparable tops of the rotation, but we "lack dominance"? This is really a terrible argument. I've also just realized I've spent the last 50 or so posts of mine arguing with people who don't think games in Petco Park are real.
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The argument appears to be "if we get the worst case scenario for all 5 starters, then the rotation won't be as good as many think". What you call "worst case scenario," I call "reasonable projection." "If Dempster's 2008 was entirely luck and reverts to average AND Harden gets hurt and misses time AND Zambrano has his worst year ever AND Peavy's road splits from 2008 and 2006 are somehow much more predictive than his road splits from 2007, 2005, and 2004; then our rotation may not be so grand" is not "reasonable projection", it's devil's advocate nonsense.
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Those are not total production stats, those are rate stats. If you can promise me that Harden pitches 150+ innings for the Cubs next season, then my opinion of the rotation increases a bit. Add in Marshall's or Shark's or Gaudin's or whoever's starts in his stead if he gets hurt then.
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The argument appears to be "if we get the worst case scenario for all 5 starters, then the rotation won't be as good as many think".
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Discounting Harden by the odds of injury (not saying he's not a great value at his salary and projected output), I'd say the following teams have duos that I'd say are comparable to Peavy/Harden: Kazmir/Shields Halladay/Litsch or Marcum Lee/Sabathia Lowe/Billingsly Webb/Haren If you had to pick one of those six duos for a single 2009 season, I don't think Peavy/Harden is a no-brainer choice. Lowe and Sabathia are free agents, and none of Kazmir, Shields, Litsch, Marcum, Billingsley, or Lowe are as good as either Peavy or Harden. So really the only 1/2 that compares is Arizona, and yet we lack dominance" in that situation? Wanna take a 2009 bet on production from Harden vs. Kazmir or Billingsley? Name your (non-monetary) terms and preferred total value stat. I don't really care about terms, but take a look at their FIP or ERA+ after next season if it means that much to you.
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Discounting Harden by the odds of injury (not saying he's not a great value at his salary and projected output), I'd say the following teams have duos that I'd say are comparable to Peavy/Harden: Kazmir/Shields Halladay/Litsch or Marcum Lee/Sabathia Lowe/Billingsly Webb/Haren If you had to pick one of those six duos for a single 2009 season, I don't think Peavy/Harden is a no-brainer choice. Lowe and Sabathia are free agents, and none of Kazmir, Shields, Litsch, Marcum, Billingsley, or Lowe are as good as either Peavy or Harden. So really the only 1/2 that compares is Arizona, and yet we lack dominance" in that situation?
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How many rotations have any pitchers better than Peavy or Harden? 10 in all of baseball if we're being generous to them and pessimistic about Peavy's splits? How many of them have two of those guys?
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Holy hell, Stanford is BAD. Colorado lost home games to Montana State and TCU, who just beat them by 16. Looks like Bdzelik or however it's spelled has his work cut out for him. There's a combined 3 Juniors and Seniors on the team, one of which plays 4 minutes a game.
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Washington Texas Oklahoma Texas A&M Washington State Iowa State Oregon Arizona State Missouri Colorado Kansas Texas Tech I have the Pac-10 going 4-8. Hopefully I'm wrong about UCLA-Texas. Colorado already lost to Stanford by 14.
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No, the Cubs have no obligations if they non-tender Gaudin. And non-tendering him would be an epically stupid thing to do.
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Illinois plays Georgia in the non-conference too? That's strange. With the B10/ACC challenge done, it's now time for the Big XII/Pac 10 challenge. Here's this year's lineup. Thursday, December 4, 2008 Oklahoma State at Washington UCLA at Texas USC at Oklahoma Friday, December 5, 2008 Arizona at Texas A&M Saturday, December 6, 2008 Baylor at Washington State Oregon State at Iowa State Sunday, December 7, 2008 Kansas State at Oregon Nebraska at Arizona State California at Missouri Outside the four-day series window Colorado at Stanford (Sat., Nov. 29, 2008) Kansas at Arizona (Tue., Dec. 23, 2008) Texas Tech at Stanford (Sun., Dec. 28, 2008) Lots of strong matchups there. For a prognostication, I'll go with: Washington, Texas, OU, Zona, Baylor, Oregon State, Oregon, ASU, Mizzou(homer pick, please don't let them make 40 threes), Stanford, kansas, and Tech. That would make it 6-6, and 5-4 Pac 10 after the initial 4 days.
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Greene to Cards close
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mdwilla's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Except for the part where his OPS away from PETCO has been above .800 3 of 5 seasons (60%) and that his OPS away from PETCO has been above .850 2 of 5 seasons (40%) and that his OPS away from PETCO has been below 775 once. I mean, 200 PAs on the road or 1200? For clarification. When I say expected I mean outside of PETCO in a neutral setting. Matt Holliday is an awful hitter. You can't ignore what Greene did last year, especially since he's had consistent injury problems, and especially since he's past an age where you can expect a breakout. It doesn't change all those years of hitting away from Petco, but when that's the only reason for optimism it's foolish to be so bold with the expectations for him. Recent results matter. -
Greene to Cards close
Transmogrified Tiger replied to mdwilla's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I have a very hard time buying Greene's "expected" offense at an .800 OPS even with Petco. He's never done it, ever. Unless you count the 46 games he played in High A at age 22. He's coming off his worst season ever, one in which he didn't even hit away from Petco. He's 29 years old now, and he's missed significant time due to injury in 4 of his 5 MLB seasons. There just isn't the evidence there to be that optimistic with a "high probability" projection.
