Transmogrified Tiger

He took the middle ground between Bill James and Marcels, and rounded off his career UZR to a whole number. This isn't complicated or mincing numbers to try to prove a point, it's just simplifying.

He was talking about what to expect out of a player next year, what exactly should he have done? Why do people have such difficulty understanding the context of specific quotes? I made no argument or remark regarding what he should have done. I pointed out the fallacy that the OP had not used guesswork in his point. He, in fact, did use guesswork- regardless of how close to reality those projections tend to be, they are still projections. Hence, they are GUESSES. Educated guesses, sure. But, guesses nonetheless. Yes, and it's obvious by your previous disagreement of his point and your overuse of the word "guess" that your point is to discredit what he's saying. Everything talking about next year is a guess of some magnitude, to belabor that is beside the point. How would you go about making that evaluation of Gathright '09 v. Abreu '09?

He was talking about what to expect out of a player next year, what exactly should he have done?

If Abreu gets anywhere near 15 million dollars in 2009, I'll make SSR eat a hat.

I guess if you platoon Kosuke and Johnson, then had a 3 man grouping of Gathright/DeRosa/Fontenot, the bench works out as Gathright/Fontenot, Cedeno/other SS backup, Hoffpauir, Johnson, backup C.

The wording from various sources is unclear if Gathright would even get a major league contract, I really doubt he's getting 1-2 million. And I'm pretty sure the 3 players Colin is referring to are Ibanez, Abreu, and Bradley. Ibanez and Abreu(throw Dunn the RF in here too if you like) are the inverse of Gathright, giving away their offensive value with wretched defense. Bradley isn't much better than anyone if he can't stay healthy. Personally, I'm skeptical of Gathright's offensive projection like I mentioned earlier, but it's not like he's never hit at that level(below average instead of replacement level), and he's 28 so if he were to step up offensively now would be the time(especially going to an easier league like Colin mentioned). Also of note is that Gathright has no platoon split. .631 career OPS against both RHP and LHP.

Really? Because of the four offseason RF targets the Cubs had going into the winter meetings, Gathright is better than 2-3 of them (depending on how many games you think Bradley will last in the outfield). And that's BEFORE you take contract value into account. I know projections put him at about a .305 w/OBA, but I'm skeptical of him reaching a level he's only met once in 4+ seasons. Still, getting another Pie with less upside isn't bad at all if you're going to trade the original.

A major league contract? Irritating. A minor league contract? Pretty good Iowa fodder.

Dunn is a completely different hitter in that he approaches at bats a completely different way. Dunn strikes out a ton and walks a ton, both byproducts of him taking pitches to get deep into counts. He looks for a pitch he can drive, and if he doesn't get it early in the count, he doesn't swing. When he gets deep into counts, he still looks to drive the ball, and remains selective. This leads to the walks, the K's(swinging and looking), and the extra base hits(reflected by his obscene IsoP). Soriano on the other hand, approaches hitting not unlike a trained labradoodle. He sees the pitch, if he can hit it, he swings at it indiscriminately, and as hard as he can. This leads to the extra base hits, the strikeouts(swinging but rarely looking), but not the walks. When they're at the plate, Dunn is playing chess while Soriano is coloring outside the lines in a book of crossword puzzles.

I'm sorry, I have an extremely difficult time describing someone as a very good hitter when their career batting average is .247, they average 160+ strikeouts a year, and his career RISP is .241 (.208 with RISP and 2 outs.) Sometimes, the situation demands a player step up to the plate and drive in a run, and he can't deliver that. His career numbers prove it. These SHOULD matter. Listen, OBP and SLG are great numbers to have...I know. But Dunn is basically another Soriano, only with the ability to take a walk and not steal a base. Most people here hate Soriano, yet praise Dunn profusely. He's a valuable offensive piece overall that just doesn't make sense for this team based on our needs. Batting average should never be the metric to determine how valuable someone is in a given situation. Ever. His OPS w/ RISP is .890(he also strikes out less than his career rate). .883 w/ RISP and 2 outs(and an even lower K rate). .911 in Tie games, 1.371 in extra innings, .942 w/ man on 3rd < 2 outs, you could go on forever, and in all of those he has a better K rate than his average, not that it particularly matters. People don't hate Soriano and praise Dunn profusely. And Dunn and Soriano are not comparable players in the slightest.

The happy medium with Dunn is that he's a very good hitter who gives back a good bit of that offense with his defense(even moreso in RF). The reasoning for signing or not signing him should not include how he performs "when it matters" or other such arbitrary situations that Dunn actually doesn't suck at.

And won more games than the previous year?

Lowell is 35 and was pretty abysmal for a corner IF offensively last year.

Holy moly, Pomeroy has Mizzou going 14-2 in the conference right now, losing 2 point games @Texas and @Kansas. It also gives UNC a 12% chance to run the table.

Do we know that Bradley will be that much better? He hasn't played 100 games in the field since 2004 and played a whole 20 last year. I realize most of it is because he'll hurt himself if he stands in the outfield, but is a player who will be injured if he plays the outfield any better than a poor defender? Yes. Everything I've seen points to Bradley being at least capable, if not above average defensively. With Dunn, we're talking about giving away a substantial portion of the offense he provides with his defense, especially in RF. But that was two years ago, at best, for Bradley. The sample size defensively for him is very small unless you go back to 2006. Defensive metrics are highly questionable at best with a large sample size. If you have to go back to when Bradley was 27 to have any sort of real sample size, are the metrics reliable enough to tell you how he'll be today when he's 31 and has a pitiful health record? For me I need more than "he's had injuries" to deduce that he's become a worse outfielder. And besides, even if he's been sapped of range by his injuries, he's still highly likely to be orders of magnitude better than Dunn in the OF.

Do we know that Bradley will be that much better? He hasn't played 100 games in the field since 2004 and played a whole 20 last year. I realize most of it is because he'll hurt himself if he stands in the outfield, but is a player who will be injured if he plays the outfield any better than a poor defender? Yes. Everything I've seen points to Bradley being at least capable, if not above average defensively. With Dunn, we're talking about giving away a substantial portion of the offense he provides with his defense, especially in RF.

Dunn would probably be the worst defensive right fielder in the history of baseball.

I think signing Bradley would amount to paying extra money to have Reed Johnson or Fukudome play right field for 60-70 games. So yeah, I'd prefer either of those options. It's more playing time for Fontenot, not Kosuke or Johnson.

Bradley is not getting 4/40. Ranting and raving about Bradley playing in Arlington and having a high BABIP in 2008 rings awfully hollow considering he's raked no matter where he's been. People aren't excited because he hit well in 2008, they're excited because he's been a good hitter forever. Bradley's career OPS is over .820(misleading anyway since he's always had an OBP heavy OPS), and he's played in pitchers parks everywhere he's been. Bradley's health is a valid concern. However, with DeRosa and Fontenot around, we're well equipped to gamble on higher performance(compared to the alternatives) at the risk of health. The rumored deal was 2 years with a vesting option, so he's not going to be a millstone contract if he breaks himself.

Temple beat #8 Tennessee by 16 at Temple. Temple has losses to Miami Ohio and Buffalo. UMass held off #23 Kansas in Kansas City. The win brings UMass to 3-6 on the season(with losses to Jacksonville State, UW-Green Bay, and Toledo)

I only saw the highlights from tonight, but the block he spiked off the backboard was ridiculous.

I don't really understand how misplays by CF and SS matter more than misplays by LF and RF.

Here's what it comes down to for me. DeRosa is pretty much a shoo-in for 400 PAs due to some combination of: -getting no one better for RF -whoever we get for RF sucking -whoever we get for RF being hurt -Fontenot sucking/needing a platoon partner/getting hurt -Ramirez getting hurt Going from DeRosa to replacement level is something you can probably cover in the starting 9 to start out with, but it's a significant drop off. Marshall is pretty much a shoo-in for 10-15 starts due to some combination of starters being hurt. Going from his 115 ERA+ to Gaudin or Samardzija being 100 ERA+ with a chance to be better or (more likely) worse over ~100 innings is not a small thing either. Even with that, Peavy is still a net improvement on the club. However, I don't think that mitigated improvement is worth Vitters, Pie, plus two more of the Hart/Atkins/Cedeno/etc brigade, plus paying 5 million dollars of Marquis' contract to send him as well. There's easier ways to get that smaller improvement without completely draining your organization of tradeable assets. Depending on how you value it, you can maybe get that improvement by adding someone like Juan Cruz to the back end of the bullpen. There's also Peavy's history of arm troubles to consider, and there's some who think he's on the brink of big problems with his mechanics. That said, if you think Peavy will make us more dominating in the playoffs, think he solidifies the rotation with Harden and Lilly set to leave within the next two years, and/or think we can replace the losses in the trade easier than I or others think, that's fine. It's not an outrageous position by any stretch, Peavy is really good. But I don't think either side is worthy of the sarcastic histrionics of "WE CAN'T LOSE OUR SWING MAN" or "IT'S JAKE PEAVY" in response to that rumored deal that Hendry walked away from.

This is on point. McCoy, Daniel, Freeman, and Harrell are 3 year starters, and Bradford, Robinson, Ganz, Reesing, and Arnaud are all returning starters, plus the top newcomer was Baylor's freshman QB Griffin. You'll see a step down next year with upwards of half the conference having turnover at QB.

what makes that so obvious? oh, and i'd also be remiss if i didn't mention Fuku was roughly 5 runs better than Ibanez on the basepaths last year I'm guessing it's obvious to him because Fukudome didn't just hit some rough patches that held down his numbers, but rather he was a complete piece of crap at the plate for months. I don't get why people are thanking god that Ibanez won't be available. He wasn't ideal, but they are more likely than not getting somebody, and they could do a lot worse. Ibanez was the worst of any possibility mentioned this offseason, including any permutation of not adding someone and going with what we currently have.