Transmogrified Tiger
-
Posts
38,761 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
70
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
-
[tweet]https://twitter.com/lenkasper/status/733811286140583938[/tweet] [tweet] [/tweet] -
Heyward has been pulling off outside pitches really bad in this series. I wonder what would happen if he got Rizzo-close to the plate?
-
that's what, 3 home runs Montero has had taken away by ridiculous CF dimensions?
-
Jimmy Nelson's ERA is between Gerrit Cole and Cole Hamels, he is a good pitcher. Even if they were all terrible, this is baseball, these things happen. Please proceed to get a grip at your earliest convenience. Okay - this isn't a fullblown meltdown here. I'm allowed to express mild disdain when our offense goes on a three-game slump against three pitchers who combine for league average performance, just like any other user. You've long lost the benefit of the doubt, I'm afraid, that's the consequence of persistent doom-mongering.
-
I'm more annoyed that, against three mediocre pitchers in a row, they've all had their one of a handful of good starts they'll have all season. Jimmy Nelson's ERA is between Gerrit Cole and Cole Hamels, he is a good pitcher. Even if they were all terrible, this is baseball, these things happen. Please proceed to get a grip at your earliest convenience.
-
The offense has scored 2 runs in 4 innings.
-
Was reading Brian Straus's article/interview with Dempsey and then they just drop this picture of him as Jim Halpert from draft day like it's nothing. Gotta prepare a guy for this stuff. http://cdn-s3.si.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_gallery_desktop/public/si/dam/assets/13/06/12/130612221806-dempsey-38-single-image-cut.jpg
-
That is terrific. I've not really heard any great heckles myself, but my favorite story is fans in the Wrigley bleachers giving Gregg Jefferies a hard time about having the worst possible fielding score in Strat-O-Matic, "You're a 5 Jefferies!" http://espn.go.com/magazine/wulf_20020213.html
-
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-17-16
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Edwards just gave up his first walk and earned run in over 3 weeks. 7.1 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 11 K, 1 BB -
I'd make Russell and Bryant untouchable, but after that pretty much any permutation of players would probably be okay with me. You'd have to do something like clean out all the MLB/AAA trade assets(Schwarber, Baez, Soler, Hendricks, Almora, Edwards, AND Contreras) before I start to flinch. There isn't a single prospect in the system I'm terribly attached to, the only real hesitation I might have would be to make sure we aren't eliminating any farm system impact for 2 years, like illustrated in the previous sentence. Anyone else goes without a thought. Happ? Gone. Eloy? See ya. Torres? Tootles. Underwood? You were never good anyway. Cease? Lottery ticket, this is Trout.
-
I totally suck at these things, so forgive me. In this scenario on the Russell and a single good prospect side, do you also have to add in a hypothetical free agent that we could sign for five years at about $100 million with the money saved, or not? I don't even know if what I asked makes sense. You're on the right track, but using surplus value does this for us. Or to illustrate another way, using round numbers for simplicity: You get 385 million dollars of value for 135 million with Trout You get 275 million dollars of value for 25 million with Russell plus a prospect So yes, you can add in the value you can get from spending that additional 110 million, but the easier thing to do is just to subtract the cost from the value to get to the surplus value. It tells the same story in a simpler way, so you can see that in this example Russell + prospect provide the same surplus as Trout despite not being as good. This type of analysis has limitations and shouldn't be thrown around like gospel truth, but it's good to ground discussions, especially in this case where the very idea is a bit abstract(trading for a pretty surefire HOFer that's not even 25 years old).
-
Quick back of the envelope math: 5 win x 5 years = 25 wins 9 wins x 5 years = 45 wins 7 million/win with 10% inflation puts you at 385 million for Trout and about 215 for hypothetical 5 win Russell. That's about 250 million in surplus value for Trout v. a little under 200 for Russell. So if you want to be strictly mathematical about it(not a good idea), Russell plus a single good prospect probably hits the mark in terms of surplus value, although Russell has a 6th year of team control to bridge that gap further.
-
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-17-16
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
McKinney has been terrible but Candelario hasn't really even been that disappointing, tbh. Power numbers are low, but it happens early in the season for some players. Other than that, it's just him getting BABIP'd. He's walking at a fantastic rate and is keeping his K's in check. McKinney, though, looks to be feeling the effects of the knee injury, or at least that is my hope. I've probably said this elsewhere, but with prospects I think you have to be careful about BABIP variation in both directions. It is less of an equal playing field than MLB, the prospects with promise should be creating a bit of their own luck, and those with horrific BABIPs are less likely to have the hitting ability to raise it significantly. In the case of Candelario we're at over 150 PA of him with a .635 OPS. Even if we can expect BABIP progression from him, the fact that he's had this stretch reflects just as poorly as the optimism does in the other direction. Because in this instance, Candelario getting neutral BABIP still isn't lighting AA on fire, and in order to be truly useful he needs to be good at that level, AAA, and then the MLB level, all escalating in difficulty(and chipping away at the expected BABIP he should have). -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-16-16
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
http://i.imgur.com/WJYrcV7.gif -
General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
At long last, finally an outlet for Mojo to be able to say when something is bad. -
God, I didn’t miss this. I really didn’t. I want to drown this sentence in a [expletive] sewer. I laughed so hard at this.
-
Minor League Musings
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Of all the things to criticize Tom for, you guys are going after him for thinking Edwards is a good relief arm and for talking about trading prospects for a starting pitcher. Guy can't catch a break. -
Minor League Musings
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I (kinda) said this 5 pages ago! More seriously, that's the mental model I've had for Almora this calendar year, which really is a particularly great fit given the composition of the rest of the OF right now. -
Other Games Week of 5/8
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CubInOK's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
[tweet] [/tweet] -
Cookies in this case meaning cutters that broke the bats of two hitters already in this inning
-
To be honest, I'd rather see Cole out for the 9th getting the top of the lineup another look at him, and with near 100 pitches. Doesn't look like he's going to get that shot though.
-
deadened it too much, Javy
-
that is a dirty, dirty slider, mercy
-
They are definitely throwing away a great chance to move to 5 games clear of every other team in baseball.
-
It feels like Warren ends up with more intentional walks than the rest of the team combined.
