Transmogrified Tiger
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Strasburg Signs Extension with Nationals
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
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If the Cubs play .800 baseball all season long and win 130 games, then there could be an argument that the Cubs can overcome more of the variance than the average team. The reason the Playoffs are such a crapshoot is because the good teams are reasonably concentrated together. Mathematically the 97 win Cubs of last year are only a wee bit better than the 90 win Mets of last year, so an individual game's variance pretty much wipes out any actual difference in talent level when projecting the rest of the series. A 130 win Cubs team playing an 88 win Giants team or something is a bit of a different story. It would still be a crapshoot, but the Cubs would be rolling loaded dice instead of the normal coinflip. This is all pretty much moot because the Cubs are not going to win 130 games or anything close to that number.
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The Mets are 9th in the NL in runs but 5th in wOBA and wRC+, so they've probably got some progressing to do yet. They're also in an odd spot where they don't have much money to spend so they're less likely to take on a big contract, especially one that would force an existing contract to the bench. Their clearest spot to upgrade at the moment is catcher, but TdA will probably be a big part of that progressing to the mean. If not, Lucroy might make sense.
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I don't think Fernandez is going to happen, even if the Marlins made him available. I think the front office is not really interested in that risk/reward profile. That's why they love Lester so much(he has the upside with the durability), that's why they've gone after the Lackeys, Hammels, Feldmans, and Jaxons of the world in free agency instead of the Kazmirs or Brett Andersons. That's why Hendricks was never seriously in doubt of losing a rotation spot, and why Edwards was funneled to the bullpen as quickly as he was. Upside means little when you're constantly rehabbing, especially with the cascading effects that has on the rest of the roster.
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Yeah next off day is Thursday. Coming off a high energy 4 game weekend series with an extra innings ending, they could use a little rest. The Padres aren't off Thursday, so it could be interesting trying to make the game up if it does not happen. They could do it Monday. Both teams are off, the Padres are in Milwaukee all weekend and the Cubs are headed to Milwaukee the next day. Only downside would be the Padres flying back to SD for a home game the next day, but it's a night game and flying west gains time.
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This is also a fun illustration. Against < .500 teams STL: 11-5, +56 RD CHC: 15-5, +74 RD Against >= .500 teams STL: 5-11, -16 RD CHC: 9-1, +28 RD
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Nobody for at least an inning, I'd suspect. Ramirez can probably go an inning or two. I think he means at the plate.
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Harper's walk rate has gone from 15.7%(which itself is roughly top 15 in MLB) to 22.7% in this series.
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with RH relievers, 2 outs, and the ghost of Ryan Zimmerman due up after, I'd keep walking him
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Wood is coming into the game, right? Why not have him hit and save Hammel? He not getting any reps as a bullpen guy now?
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infrequently
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Baez fooled me with his reaction, I thought he had put it off the wall
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ah, the good ole ankle strike
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With 2 strikes and 2 outs I think it's a decent gamble. Bryant isn't slow, Zobrist is high contact, with that count you're likely to get an off speed pitch and Zobrist is less likely to get an XBH.
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I've seen Rendon's busted throwing motion so many times today that's starting to bother me.
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it irritates me to see the Cubs not take advantage of managerial incompetence even more than the average failing especially in this case where Dusty just has no idea of the game being played around him
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How many times has Dusty tried to steal an extra inning from his starter and had it blow up in his face?
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A couple guys wear those on the bases, Javy is another I know of for sure.
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Federowicz at least ask for an appeal there
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Ramos wouldn't have tried to tag on Jim Abbott there.
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It's more of a you couldn't have ever been a hitter if your approach was hack at balls low and away off the plate than a nerds in the basement attack. To sit there and attack a hitter for not swinging at pitches that are at best 50/50 calls is a joke. I don't need to attack Soler as a hitter since the results speak for themself at this point. Getting pissed at bad strike calls is not absolving Soler for responsibility for his overall output. If you're going to sarcastically dismiss arguments please do so to arguments that are actually made.
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ball 1 to Murphy was deep apparently
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Arrieta losing a few strikes/pitches to Federowicz's D doesn't make your bizarre crusade against him coming up for 2 weeks any more sensical.
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that is really frustrating after watching Arrieta get squeezed in the top half
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strike one not a strike
