Yellow card accumulation runs through the quarterfinal, so any of these guys getting a yellow card in the next game would be suspended for the semis: Orozco, Brooks, Johnson, Bradley, Jones, Bedoya, and Wood
some pitchers literally say they are looking to pitch to more contact, including arrieta and sale this year Pitchers say a lot of things. Sale I'm almost positive is trying to not scare people with his drop in velocity by saying something that sounds strategic but he's literally just not missing as many bars with his stuff anymore Pitchers sometimes very explicitly throw pitches they want guys to swing and miss at, like chase sliders, high fastballs, etc. Other times they throw pitches that they're more okay with contact because they want to throw strikes and set up sequences. Or in other words, pitching to contact in the 'haha they're gonna pop this up just like I planned it' sense is pretty much a myth; pitching to contact in the 'even if you make contact I'm okay with that because of the pitch/location/your lack of skill' sense is absolutely a real thing.
Is there no downtrend that you're not willing to completely ignore? Yeah it's amazing that they've put together a 41-18 record, but that's because the SP has masked a lot of the glaring problems. I'm actually more worried about the pitching sustaining a strand rate that is higher than what we mocked the Cardinals for last year than I am the offense which has used up all of the fantastic depth they had in March. But in the grand scheme of things my biggest worries are like a 3 on a 1-10 scale. Yes they've gone like 17-12 since their 24-6 start. But 17-12 is still like 96 win pace over the course of a season. And this is a down stretch for this team relatively speaking The strand rate will go down as the temperatures go up, the Cards last year actually had a higher strand rate to this point in the season, especially compared to everyone else. However, the same increase in temperatures means more runs on the offensive side of the ledger. The Cubs also have a great defense, 20% of their rotation is incredibly good at inducing soft contact, and their FIP is #2 in baseball(#1 for SP).
You are smarter than this. His last 3 appearances 1/3IP 5H 5ER 1BB 0K. Combine that with a 5.57ERA and 4.56FIP and you can't feel at all comfortable with him coming into tight games. 5 days ago he had a 3.48/3.81/3.42 ERA/FIP/xFIP, and moving beyond the small samples of this week/this year is very positive as well. So yes, unless there's some reason to think Grimm is more fundamentally broken, I'm very comfortable with Grimm in a tight game, although I also recognize as the 3rd best reliever he isn't going to be flawless(and historically he may struggle with control, like 80% of relievers).