Bumgarner threw 119 pitches in the wild card game, he'll be starting on 4 days rest on Monday. Here's Bumgarner the last 3 years coming off 110+ pitches when he has 4 days rest: The highlighted piece shows how he does in those starts compared to those seasons on the whole(postseason included). Since the season totals include the games following 110+ pitches on 4 days rest, the gap is a bit larger than that. In other words, when Bumgarner has a high pitch count outing and doesn't get additional rest, you can basically tack on a run to his ERA and that's the pitcher you're facing.