Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Candelario would be a top 10 prospect in the majority of systems in baseball. Probably the 9th or 10th prospect in the better ones, but he's still a legit guy. Zagunis probably makes plenty of top 10 lists as well, just due to his proximity to the majors. Many lists will throw a guy like him in at #10. Wilson and Albertos aren't making many lists though. As others have mentioned, this kind of thing happens when you graduate loads of talent to the big league team the past 2 years, and then deal from the remainder of the farm to bolster those graduates for a WS run. Candelario has like a .600 OPS when the temperature is below 80 degrees. He's a perfectly fine prospect and would make more than a few Top 10s, but it's also telling that all the Candelario conversation from Cubs fans(who are going to overrate him the most) is "what can we get for Candelario" and not "how can we fit Candelario in the roster/lineup". But he's easily the best of that list of 4, it's more that he's in the Top 10 and those other guys are too. Zagunis is next-gen Matt Szczur. That's fine and the system needs to provide those guys for injury depth and cost efficient bench/platoon players, but in no good system should he be ranked #6. -
That was my thought exactly as I read it. Obligatory "this is kind of what happens when you graduate like 7 guys who win you a world series within two seasons" qualifier comment. And that's with Almora being given prospect status! Having pretty much no breakouts and a number of disappointments the same year your first pick is #104 is not great timing. Should bounce back though, they have 3 picks this draft before #104, plus with the current state there's way more potential for guys to take off than to disappoint. Also, kudos to BA for resisting the temptation to rank Underwood in the Top 10.
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Wilson, Zagunis, Candelario, and Albertos in the Top 10. The system, it is not good right now.
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Random Offseason Musings and Rumors
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Here's my attitude towards adding a 6th SP. They need to either be clearly better than Montgomery, or they need to have options/team control so there's some longer term hope that can be cultivated. Ross is neither, and I really don't have any interest in him. As for what the FO is actually doing, well they clearly have some interest in Ross so maybe they're more optimistic than Ross than me or just want the body to sort out later. If they don't get Ross, I imagine they'll continue trying to get some level of controlled SP, be it a failed prospect or someone more in the Montgomery mold. They may also like Zastryzny as a 6th starter more than we think, and they also might believe that finding a 6th starter without options(like Ross) is easier near the end of ST as teams sort out their 25 man rosters. -
They clearly would rather have Montgomery starting instead of him, and Hammel's repertoire doesn't transfer to the bullpen well(and there's not really much space there anyway). It's hard to see Hammel being considered unless there was a fairly significant injury in the rotation while he was still available.
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[tweet] [/tweet]
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They're probably waiting for Free Agency to finish. If the Cardinals knew their punishment was, say, their 2017 first round pick, it might change their incentives with FA's that have Qualifying Offers. I'd be a little surprised if it wasn't announced sometime during Spring Training.
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I was gonna say, pretty disrespectful for none of those pictures to have Bryant.
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THE CUBS ARE 2016 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
Transmogrified Tiger replied to raw's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Yeah, the Heyward stuff early in the article got a little flowery for my tastes, but the Heyward as unwitting hero stuff was fascinating. -
General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
i haven't read it, but if this means how bad they can be in a practical sense (like how bad the worst guys actually are) rather than some extreme where they literally have every borderline pitch called a ball, this pitch framing thing has completely jumped the shark It appears to be the latter. -
THE CUBS ARE 2016 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!
Transmogrified Tiger replied to raw's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
*Checks Author* Clear my schedule. -
Random Offseason Musings and Rumors
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Bautista is SNTS personified. 1st round picks matter. Jay was better than Bautista last year. -
Here's the link you want: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings Where do I go to bet on the spread in the Dodger and Cub offenses being greater than 3 wins?
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Random Offseason Musings and Rumors
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Cubswin11's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'm sure the Twins are weak with gratitude. The 40 HR 2B for a notch above mediocre arm prospect, huzzah. Do you literally spit at every pitching prospect that doesn't throw 95 or is it more of a metaphorical thing? -
Didn't we learn enough from the Henry Blanco, terrible translator incident not to put too much weight behind Chapman's exact phrasing? He said he was tired in Game 7 and he never questioned Maddon's decisions in the moment. Zero problem with his translated press conference quotes. Maddon not at least acknowledging that Chapman was gassed in Game 7 is a little odd given how forthcoming he normally is, but maybe there's a level of consideration for the rest of the bullpen being made there. If he's truly honest and says "yeah I rode Chapman too hard", even if he doesn't elaborate there's a pretty implicit "I thought Rondon, Strop and friends were garbage at that point and had no other choice" attached.
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Yes, and that moment will almost surely not pass. When Theo came, there was a theory that hitting would become scarce and teams with hitters would have a trade leverage advantage. That theory does not appear to have been fulfilled. It's not that hitting would become scarce, it's that hitters are a more predictable, less volatile asset, which is undeniably true. So while other teams have tried to ransom young pitchers with some pedigree, or build a rotation full of guys with great stuff and injury/control risks, the Cubs have won 200 games the last 2 years and a world series with a rotation that's 40% a pre-arb reject(Arrieta) and a low-ceiling prospect(Hendricks) providing about 19 fWAR over that time.
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Cubs cancelled my season tickets - anyone else?
Transmogrified Tiger replied to evanstonian's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Did you have the right to go to those games? The Cubs would disagree. is that why you went to those 9 games, to make sure the tickets still worked -
I don't think we really talked about this, but for those who aren't familiar with Uehara, he throws 2 pitches(like most relievers), a fastball and a splitter. What's unique about him is that last year his average fastball was under 87 mph. That's not new, he's never averaged 90 mph for a season on his fastball, and this also explains why he has little platoon split. He's going to throw straight in the upper 80s, or upper 70s and the bottom is going to fall out of it, and hitters can't tell which until it's too late.
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Cubs cancelled my season tickets - anyone else?
Transmogrified Tiger replied to evanstonian's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
You seem to be implying this would be bad. -
I saw that story called Tinker Tailor Demon Deacon yesterday and it was the best thing I saw on twitter all day.
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I'm not sure why McCarthy would be desirable. He's not very sure to be better than Montgomery, he has injury concerns and a contract of non-trivial size, he can't be optioned, and he's not a good fit for the bullpen if he failed to beat out Montgomery.
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I'm not sure if there's a reasonable path to resetting next year. With Jansen and Turner they've got about 180 million committed for 10 players, plus Grandal's arb 3 and Pederson's arb 1 likely bring them really close to the threshold alone. They could pay a team in prospects to take McCarthy, Gonzalez, or Kazmir, but even then you're still dealing with largely the same players and not having any ability to improve the team for an entire offseason.
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Turner and Jansen at 16 mil each only adds about 17 million to last year's payroll, and they shed a fair amount in dead weight alone(Anderson, Utley, and Howell add up to nearly 29 million). Next year another 40 million with Crawford and Ethier. 50 million in 2019 with McCarthy, Gonzalez, and Kazmir.
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In the absence of Dodgers ZiPS, let's use Steamer's fWAR: Starting 8: Dodgers: 22.2 Cubs: 25.6 Rotation: Dodgers: 17.9 Cubs: 16.4 Top 5 relievers: Dodgers: 4.5 Cubs: 3.9 Trading for Dozier without impacting their current MLB roster would be enough for a virtual tie in projections, but they're still trailing. And of course we need to see what ZiPS says since it's better than Steamer and more optimistic on the Cubs.
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Cubs offseason thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Ding Dong Johnson's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
They still need to be competitive though, which is the tricky thing. The Arrieta/Verlander stuff from a while back is the only thing that would make sense in that vein, because they aren't overflowing with SP otherwise and there's motivation on both sides(Cubs get post-2017 SP, Tigers cut payroll without tanking their chances). Wilson is easier to move because 1) he wasn't that effective last year, and 2) Boyd is a ready-made replacement since they won't want to start him 20 times again.
