Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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That would jive with Rosenthal's mention of trading a young position player: http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/07/10/cubs-reportedly-considering-trading-a-young-position-player/ I don't think we're going to see Happ any better than he is today, and while that guy(3 win switch hitter with positional flexibility) is plenty valuable, the downside if and when pitchers start exploiting him a bit more makes him a pretty good sell high candidate. It'd be risky considering the offense's inconsistency, but if that gets you the SP you really want without having to move Eloy, then I think you could get away with it now that there aren't 3 regulars with various injuries.
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Even with his struggles this year, he's on a 2.5 fWAR pace, and it's not difficult to see him continuing to be 'better than April but still inconsistent' and having a 3 win season. His age and struggles will keep him from getting huge money, but he'll get more than he would have if he put in 2 solid months in the pen and rebranded as a late inning reliever.
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I'm still pretty optimistic about Heyward. Maybe I'm stubborn but I don't think guys who hit well for thousands of PAs simply lose that ability entirely without a more legit reason than he has. Heyward has historically been a decently better hitter in the 2nd half, so hopefully that combining with more time to work through kinks in the adjustments he's made will have him more like a 3 win player for the rest of this year and next. That'd be a disappointment compared to the hopes for him, but at least it wouldn't be underwater on his contract and if he improves slightly upon it he might opt-out after '18 anyway. -
I assume the first reason would be Arrieta would absolutely not agree to such a plan in his free agent walk year. Yes, the two big reasons against would be the relationship with Arrieta(and the precedent that would set), and the cost of trading for 2 SP worthy enough to bump Arrieta to the pen. I'm also not sure that Arrieta's struggles wouldn't follow him to the pen, but that's way less important.
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Going back to the discussion on trading Davis, I saw the idea on Twitter that they could try adding 2 SP and make Arrieta a late inning RP for the rest of the year. I don't think that would happen for a couple reasons, but I thought it was a fun thought exercise.
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Minor League Musings
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Brent Honeywell was almost a Cub: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/brent-honeywell-shows-hes-ready-for-prime-time/ Pick 78 ended up being Zagunis. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-9-17
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Season ends today, is there anyone who doesn't have Paredes safely tucked inside our top 10? Last I looked I had 5 hitters ahead of him(Eloy, Burks, and the AAA trio), and on the pitching side you've got an increasing number of interesting options plus the draft class. Short answer, I don't know if I would. -
They are not going to trade Davis because they're 4 losses behind the Brewers at the all star break. I also don't really think they want to extend Davis. They paid a decent player cost for the right to pay Davis 10 million so clearly they aren't above having money invested in the bullpen, but they likely don't want to invest dollars+years in the same person when it's very likely that will turn out poorly. They had their chance to do it that way just a few months ago with Jansen, Chapman, and Melancon all available and they basically paid lip service to pursuing any of them.
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I'm not too proud to admit that I would've turned the game off if Freese had caught that.
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what was that throw Baez
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Happ: .374 wOBA, 131 wRC+, 15.1 PA/HR Stanton: .376 wOBA, 132 wRC+, 14.9 PA/HR
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That reminds me, this was an important reminder when I saw it today: [tweet] [/tweet] We're back to mid-2000s norms when it comes to eyeballing ERA's and OPS's and deciding what is good.
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Ian Happ has a 9% walk rate and the Fox crew is mystified he saw 5 pitches in an at bat
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if I'm going to be subjected to Smoltz, I appreciate that Cervelli is going to be in pain every inning to balance it out
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okay now tip one off his facemask Zobrist
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he was playing deep, but that's a kinda terrible read by Happ
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Isn't that the one thing Bedoya is supposed to be good at I'm biased but I'd love to see what a Roldan/Acosta partnership could do
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Dwyer really has a nose for goal. It'd be nice if he could be the guy that Wondo never could be for the USMNT.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-7-17
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Similar to how you don't want to be too definitive about a hitter's defense in low-A, I think batting average carries more importance. Demonstrating the bat to ball to hit for a good average at that level helps portend that you won't see it erode to nothing at high levels. That's where the comparison to Torres falls off to me, he hit .293 at South Bend compared to .261 for Paredes, and Torres isn't a guy with a terrific hit tool either. That doesn't spell doom for Paredes, but it means he has more work to do before his current output portends a bright MLB future. -
Yankees give up 3 in the first, they might be out of a playoff spot by the end of the day. If they lose they'll have won 6 of their last 24
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Something distracted both Bell and the first base coach. Story? Hitter swung and missed and lost his bat, Russell-style. Bat went into the crowd and Bell watched it without realizing the catcher tried to back-pick the runner. Ball went into right field and the runner scored from first.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-7-17
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Paredes hit a HR Duncan Robinson had a middling first outing at Myrtle Beach, before yielding to his future self, Casey Bloomquist. -
Under the assumption Archer/Stroman aren't available outside of a godfather offer and Gray requires Eloy+ I'm all just for using our money and like Caritini and Jeimer to grab a pitcher who should have elite stuff (at least get the AL to NL bump) and at least fills a rotation spot for a year or 2. I'd approve of the Vic C + Jeimer C for Verlander all day. The Tigers can F off if they want someone on the ML roster or Eloy / Cease. The elite guys or ML guys are to be used for a Stroman-like trade. To give up 2 of the AAA trio, I'd want them to pick up a substantial amount of money. That may be getting greedy, and I'm not going to let Caratini or Candelario get in the way of making the team better, but even if I'm optimistic about Verlander's bounce back, 2.5/70 is a lot to pay for that risk before even getting to players.
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Sullivan's article briefly mentioned this, but the hard contact bit seems to be a plague for the Tigers. They're easily worst in MLB at it(after being 7th in MLB with mostly the same cast of characters in 2016), and Fulmer is the only starter who hasn't seen that go significantly in the wrong direction in 2017 compared to last year. It's possible that problem has a large environmental component. And with regards to command, James McCann or Avila have been the primary catcher there since 2010 (!), and the only seasons either of them have been above average by BP's framing are 2012 and 2016. Not coincidentally Verlander's 2 best ERA seasons in the last 5+ were those two years, and this year McCann is not only just below average, but at the very bottom of the league. Toss in those factors combined with the AL to NL move, and I'd be reasonably confident that Verlander is a 3+ win pitcher the rest of this year, if not more.
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Verlander's WAR per 32 starts: 2017: 2.5 2016: 4.9 2015: 4.6 2014: 2.9 2013: 4.6 2012: 6.6 2011: 6.0 2010: 6.1
