Transmogrified Tiger

They didn't give Montgomery, Butler, Kelly, etc a rotation spot this spring, and if they kick Montgomery out of the rotation for Hendricks, then their best bet from the internal options won't be likely to go a full SP's workload. Quintana and Teheran combined cost about as much as Lackey+Anderson, so it's not a matter of finances that would hold them back either. That said, if you have Lester/Q/Hendricks/Teheran, another SP isn't a huge need, but there isn't a whole lot else to spend on either. I think it can add up fairly quickly. Let's say you buy a guy in FA, instead of adding Teheran.....That's probably an extra 5-10 mill in payroll. Darvish being the biggest target, that would cost more..... You're going to need 3-4 bullpen arms, that's going to add up. Maybe 25-30 mill? More, if you keep Davis or trade for Britton..... And you've at least got to look at a possibility of adding a CF. Quintana + Teheran + Darvish at 30M + 25-30M towards the bullpen is basically the same payroll as this year's team. Maybe you can't get a Jay replacement, but those bullpen estimates are probably high(Montgomery is in the pen in this scenario) and you've got several CF lying around(Happ, Almora, Heyward, maybe Burks) without dropping Jay-money on one. Is that the path I think they'll go? No, but it's not all that elaborate a contortion either. Trading for Teheran wouldn't close any doors, unless there's a similar valued pitcher you like better that you can't trade for with a more depleted system.

They didn't give Montgomery, Butler, Kelly, etc a rotation spot this spring, and if they kick Montgomery out of the rotation for Hendricks, then their best bet from the internal options won't be likely to go a full SP's workload. Quintana and Teheran combined cost about as much as Lackey+Anderson, so it's not a matter of finances that would hold them back either. That said, if you have Lester/Q/Hendricks/Teheran, another SP isn't a huge need, but there isn't a whole lot else to spend on either.

Yeah, I think the correct call should've been a HR, but for some reason they didn't see it. No excuse for Granderson not noticing that Blackmon was booking it around the bases and giving at least 10% effort, but Blackmon didn't *need* to book it around the bases.

Unless they think he's hurt or his arm is about to explode, I'm not a big fan of this logic, since it applies nearly equally to every team and player that could be traded.

Rodriguez manages to swing and miss at a pitch in the strike zone and get ball 4 out of the deal. Remarkable.

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Happ made sure he got got

Schwarber's now around 90 games in the OF as a major leaguer and grades out +6 UZR/150. Also he's a danger to himself and the Cubs should be ashamed for playing him in LF.

of course Bucknor makes that call without help

Mekkes struck out the side to close things out. Quite the pitching day.

CB Bucknor gets paid to do this real american currency

[tweet] [/tweet] [tweet]https://twitter.com/bencarsley/status/887123574011691010[/tweet]

Rucker as a starter: 44.2 IP, 2.01 ERA, 28 H, 42/11 K/BB, 3 HR

...how do you pronounce it

Jones has about a .315 wOBA/95 wRC+ in his last 1100 plate appearances, and he's going to get worse before he gets better. If you traded Almora and he didn't carry any player cost then okay, but I don't see the appeal in Jones as a destination. Yes you can poke holes in the current CF options, but they're end of the lineup options to begin with and they basically have 3 of them for 1 spot which makes it pretty easy to optimize matchups, even in the playoffs.

So obviously Mekkes and his 0.00 era in Myrtle gets the bump up too, right? I'd bet on Araujo. He's 24, has been at Myrtle Beach all year, and has this line: 41.2 IP, 2.38 ERA, 31 H, 52/9 K/BB, 2 HR

I'm not that knowledgeable about other teams' prospects, I'm afraid. The hard thing when you start going that route is that there isn't a shortage of reliever profiles with velocity who can't tame their stuff. The line between Andrew Miller and Jack Leathersich is surprisingly thin, and most of the time is identified as a scouting exercise more than parsing performance. For some semblance of a starting point, you could look at SP prospects that are stalling out at high levels.

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Here's the list of relievers with 10+ IP this year and an average fastball velocity of 95+ mph from the left side. Aroldis Chapman Yankees Enny Romero Nationals Felipe Rivero Pirates James Pazos Mariners Jose Alvarado Rays Jose Torres Padres Josh Osich Giants Justin Wilson Tigers Wandy Peralta Reds Zach Britton Orioles

Quintana and Teheran aren't even in the same conversation, and I would argue that Teheran has always been pretty worthless. -0.2, 0.2, 2.5, 3.2, 1.2, 3.2, -0.1 Those are his fWAR in his career. Combine his less than mediocre track record with his declining velocity and he's a hard pass. Those first two seasons have a combined 25 IP, they're irrelevant. He's also consistently outproduced his FIP, his full seasons by bWar are 3.2, 3.9, 1.5, and 4.8. His velocity hasn't declined. He's been a very good pitcher for a number of years, if you don't like him for whatever reason that's okay but if you're going to resort to histrionics like comparing him to Butler or saying he's 'always been pretty worthless' it undermines the point. If anything, now is the ideal time to explore trading for Teheran. His trade value is at its lowest, and he doesn't bear the weight of saving the rotation since they've already added Quintana. He's extremely durable(11th most IP since he entered the league, right with Hamels and Verlander) yet is still only 26 and you have him for 2.5 seasons.

Jose Quintana didn't forget to be a good pitcher in the first half of the year, and I doubt Teheran did either. He's got over 900 MLB innings with a 3.54 ERA. If you think he's hurt, or that his cost would be too high, that's fine. But 'he had some bad starts this year, he's suddenly less than worthless' is not a compelling argument.

Britton is under control through 2018, so think of it as paying a little more for having him around for the stretch run, and then doing your Davis-replacement shopping early. Also, Fangraphs has the Cubs currently at 83% odds to make the playoffs. That said, I don't think Britton will happen. His injury should lower his value, which in turn lowers the incentive for the Orioles to trade him. That tweet is just a guess from a random MLB person/exec though, so it's less viable than the average rumor on top of it.

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Just under a 20% K rate in that stretch too. Even when the BABIP comes down, if he can hit for pop like that with a shaved down K rate then he's gonna be really good.

Lackey is going to be overrated and Montgomery is going to be underrated by metrics that try to normalize batted ball profiles. Montgomery is very hard to square up and gets a lot of groundballs, while Lackey is a strike thrower who has lost a tick and is now in an environment where more strikes than ever end up at or over the fence. Montgomery isn't perfect, and he hasn't seized the starting chance like I hoped he might, but he is still easily the 5th best SP we have.