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Transmogrified Tiger

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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger

  1. Transmogrified Tiger
    I'd also argue that Merryweather is way too high. The roster spot costs 800k, and when he's been healthy the ceiling is well worth the 500k gamble.
  2. Transmogrified Tiger
    I like BBTV as an objective starting point, but there is simply no way in the world Hoerner has less than 20 million in surplus value. He's a consistent 4 win player, that surplus number is closer to 60 than 20. If a team wants to hesitate on their valuation for him because of the surgery, you simply hang on to your extremely valuable player.
  3. Transmogrified Tiger
    He struck out 30% of hitters he faced, maintained a GB% over 50%, and gave up 2 HR in over 50 innings. The walks color all of that but again that's why he's in the 'talented but flawed' echelon of prospects. You're talking about him like he's so wild that it's all stuff no results, and that was not the case.
  4. Transmogrified Tiger
    Also, look at the names behind Wiggins on the list. This is the point in a prospect ranking where everyone has a fatal flaw that will probably tank their ability to be a productive major leaguer. We've known all along that control/command will be the bellwether for Wiggins, he's made some small strides and has reasons to at least hope for more(full injury recovery, limited college/pro developmental time due to the injury). I would put Birdsell ahead of him on a list today, but it's not outrageous to shuffle a bunch of the names around at this point. They're all likely to fail from an actuarial standpoint, shouting 'this guy isn't gonna do it' is uninteresting.
  5. Transmogrified Tiger
    I am curious with a bigger audience if the tweaks BlueSky has made around moderation and amplification make a noticeable difference. But I also fear that too many people have been trained around Facebook/Twitter incentives so anything that looks remotely similar is gonna have a similar path to being an unending wheel of outrage engagement.
  6. Transmogrified Tiger
    It's less that people think they're drafting a star in the 5th round(though in the 'NSBB era' Samardzija, Steele, Szczur, Birdsell, Velazquez is a decent track record), but what it does to your overall ability to give out bonuses in the 1st and other rounds. This is why even the big market teams people most want the Cubs to emulate generally(but not exclusively) sign a QO when they have the fallback of a QO comp pick themselves.
  7. Transmogrified Tiger
    Some folks are so eager to be upset about bits of news that we end up with contradictory sentiments like the Cubs are doing what everyone else does(not true) while foolishly departing from what many other good organizations do. Also the rush to label this about stats vs scouts is exhausting and oversimplified.
  8. Transmogrified Tiger
    It won't happen but this is a big week for the dream of 7 SEC teams with 2 losses. Need Georgia and Mizzou to win, then it's just about avoiding bad upsets and having aTm beat Texas.
  9. Transmogrified Tiger
    Yeah Madrigal showed pretty clearly that we overrate how much a strong arm matters to being a solid defensive 3B. If Shaw can catch the ball I think he'll be fine at either 2B or 3B.
  10. Transmogrified Tiger
    I think as a fit the biggest barrier is that the Mariners aren't really hurting for OF or OF that can play CF. They obviously have Julio, and they recently extended Robles who can play out there along with Arozarena to play LF. Plus Raley was very good for them and is a LHH 1B. All 3 OF are RHH and they don't have a locked on DH so it's not an impossible fit, but probably one where they'd look for something a bit different than Bellinger.
  11. Transmogrified Tiger
    Watching the game in real time I had a similar thought, I think you take the goal in hand if you're Liverpool, but if Nunez missed that wouldn't have been an unjust red. I was watching the Sky sports feed though, and shortly after they replayed the ref's reaction to the Salah collision that seemed to imply he wasn't going to call it a foul at all. That might've been a tougher overturn on VAR, especially in the EPL where everything refereeing-related is done on vibes, so happy that Nunez got the finish.
  12. Transmogrified Tiger
    I believe this is the source: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/42331709/mlb-offseason-2024-25-passan-predictions-juan-soto-roki-sasaki-corbin-burnes-pete-alonso The Hoerner stuff in particular feels more speculative than I'm used to seeing from Passan. I also wonder if a hotter trade market makes FA even harder to handicap this early.
  13. Transmogrified Tiger
    Serious, I am not a BA subscriber so possible I've been duped but saw a cropped screenshot of those superlatives and Triantos was the pick.
  14. Transmogrified Tiger
    They named Triantos the best defensive infielder in the system.
  15. Transmogrified Tiger
    I know the content gods have endless demands, and outside the box thinking is fine, but we also don't have to try to credulously say that there's any path to Seiya being traded. Seiya led Cubs regulars in wRC+ and IsoP, he probably would've hit 30 HR in a normal Wrigley year, and there likely aren't 10 hitters clearly better than him in MLB for the next 2 years he's under contract. Trading him in the name of adding power to the lineup is ludicrous.
  16. Transmogrified Tiger
    This doesn't make any sense, and also isn't what has happened when past IFA bound by pools have come to MLB.
  17. Transmogrified Tiger
    PSG isn't even in line to make the play in round at this point
  18. Transmogrified Tiger
    Welcome!
  19. Transmogrified Tiger
    I'm coming around on that too, though I think the path may be something like a trade for an SP that isn't making 15+ million paired with Bieber.
  20. Transmogrified Tiger
    Worth noting the Ravens had scored a touchdown on 4 consecutive drives, the odds of the coin flip ending the game one way or another were pretty high. It's the same situation from the Tampa/Kansas City game from Monday but the opposite decision. KC didn't aggressively try for a FG in those last 30 seconds, won the coin toss and Tampa never had the ball again. When you're on the road against a great QB that is playing well if you have any trust in your offense I think you need to show faith in them and go for it.
  21. Transmogrified Tiger
    If I'm reading between the lines, I think the Cubs probably like Burnes but they do not hold out any hope they will like the contract he gets enough to pursue him. I think they have greater optimism about Fried(there's a lot of independent connections between the Cubs and Fried for early November), but they're not gonna go beyond the pale to get him specifically, and that's where the trade market and possibly any next step down guys they especially like come in. I am just so curious what they manage to do from a trade perspective. I feel like I've canvassed nearly every team's roster resource page already this offseason, but the last 2 big trades were not a surprise in the way they helped the roster, but were very much surprises in how(Busch was a production gamble, Paredes I did not think would be available). And given the weight given to trade mentions and the near universal sentiment that we should see a hotter trade market in general, I'm wondering if multiple trades or a single trade for multiple roles is the most likely path this offseason.
  22. Transmogrified Tiger
    Men will literally obsess over trading our all star 2B on a team-friendly deal rather than go to therapy recognize Wrigley was weird last year
  23. Transmogrified Tiger
    The thing that makes me wary of any extensions is that the team currently isn't losing any meaningful dollars off the payroll after this year. Any 1 year deals would potentially fit in that category, and Bellinger has an opt out again, but at least a small part of the planning for this offseason has to be mindful of that to avoid painting yourself into a corner. Extensions work against this because it's very likely that any extension candidates would raise their AAV/CBT value. Maybe if you wanted to be like 'Ian Happ do you want to be a Cub for life' and offer him 6/110 or something you could pull it off(not my favorite idea!), but any young guys by definition will increase in AAV.
  24. Transmogrified Tiger
    Signing a QO FA SP and trading significant assets for another is a lot of player capital used when you do have decent depth. Assad, Wicks, Brown, Wesneski, Horton, Birdsell as options 5-10 is not a problem, especially if you fortify the pen that you don't have to use those folks there outside of long relief if desired. There's 2 situations where I could see them adding 2 SP. One is if Sasaki is posted and they win the race for him, since he's functionally free in both player and financial terms. The other is if they like a SP and he carries a similar cost as one of the RP they would be adding anyway. Beefing the rotation and leaning on Brown and Wesneski in particular out of the pen as needed is fine, it's just not very certain you can find that SP target/RP target equivalency.
  25. Transmogrified Tiger
    I think there would be a pretty dramatic difference. Lowe is a 2-3 win IF/OF who has had persistent injuries that led to him reaching 110 games once, he's on 1/10.5 + 11.5 option. Tucker (while he was hurt last year) hasn't had recurring injuries, has consistently been a 5+ win OF, and is on ~1/16 before FA (plus comp pick). Just using BBTV as a semi-objective benchmark, Tucker's cost is roughly Lowe's cost plus an Alcantara.
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