Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Do you earnestly believe that if Castillo were a free agent right now he'd get a deal similar to Snell's? Or are you working backwards from being a Mariners fan who wants to have the best possible outcome from their current player/potential trade asset? -
So it's a Shota deal where a decently likely outcome is 800 million before incentives.
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Don't be afraid to use start a new thread if there would be several posts of discussion about it, but this can be a home base for the week of the winter meetings. We'll be locking the non-Soto FA thread(which we don't want to turn into an offseason-long megathread) to avoid confusion.
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As always, no one has a reason to deny the "[losing team] actually offered [more money/years/etc]" since it makes every party look slightly better, so it's probably best to pretend they're made up.
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Conforto was my favorite FA Bellinger contingency, so that's a bummer. But if it took 17+ that's not as much savings on Cody to begin with.
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What are you talking about, please read that post again if that's your takeaway. The point is not that the Cubs were tragically unlucky the last 2 years(though I think you can argue their 2024 level is a bit higher than 83 wins), it's that unlike recent offseasons(and most offseasons for every team) they don't have to replace the production of a Contreras, Stroman, Bellinger, etc just to get back to their previous level. That means if they make steady but unspectacular improvements, they're going to be considered the best team in the division and likely on par with the Philly/Mets/Arizona tier they've been a little short of the last 2 years.
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If the Cubs do the same thing they did the last several offseasons, they will enter the season favored to win the division and probably projected within a win or so of every NL team aside from the Dodgers and Braves(who are not realistic to catch in one offseason). This is because 1) waiting for value is not the same as shopping in the clearance aisle(Bertz's examples, Swanson, Bellinger, etc) 2) the Cubs are very fortunate this offseason in that they don't have to replace any meaningful lost production and also didn't have significant overperformance to hedge against, so they don't have to play catch up just to get to last year's level.
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Bryce Harper's wRC+ when he hit free agency is about 20 points less than Soto's. I'm not even telling you that there definitely will not be deferrals in Soto's future deal, but age/number of prime seasons absolutely has an impact on AAV even aside from length.
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Oh you're right why didn't I think of that.
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Cubs Likely to Add Another Starting Pitcher
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
It really is wild that baseball was invented in 2024 and therefore we have no other data points in making this comparison. If you're bearish on Castillo that's fine, but it's disingenuous to pretend that there's no reason people might think Castillo will be better. He's 2 years younger, throws much much harder, post-pandemic he's been worth 13 fWAR to Taillon's 8, and Steamer projects him to be 1.5 fWAR better with similar workload. -
Age matters a lot, and not just with the length of the deal. Soto will play all year at 26 while Ohtani turned 30 before the All-Star break in the first year of his deal
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Minor League Musings
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Bryce Harper had TJ in November and was back in an MLB lineup (as a DH) on May 2nd. That was considered an impressive/aggressive timeline, but it would take about a 33% longer recovery to not be ready for some level of game action in ST. -
They signed Jung Hoo Lee last year, he missed most of the season with injury. Their corner OF is far from settled though.
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Cubs and Mariners Have Discussed Nico Hoerner Trade
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Wait why are we suspecting that Hoerner + Bellinger brings back Castillo and a marginal piece, Castillo and Bellinger have very similar value, you'd need something really significant coming back to toss Hoerner in there too, something the Mariners don't really have since trading 2 SP doesn't make sense for either team. -
Cubs and Mariners Have Discussed Nico Hoerner Trade
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The source for this is a Fansided blog post, so it's somehow less real than any random deal you or I could make up. -
Thaiss' contract is specifically structured to incentivize him accepting outright assignment. Unless a team has an injury and they really want him to be their backup catcher on opening day, Thaiss will make more by staying in Iowa off the 40 man roster.
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I don't expect the team to hand Shaw the opening day 2B role if Nico is traded. It may be someone with half an eye towards Shaw earning the spot by the end of 2025(a multi-position 10th man capable of holding down 2B like Castro or Lowe would be most ideal), but I don't think they're gonna sign Josh Rojas as a platoon hedge and have plan A for offensive value from the position coming via Shaw in some form. I have even more doubts about them doing the same for Caissie, who plays higher up the offensive spectrum, had worse AAA performance, and is a riskier transition with his much greater swing and miss.
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oh thank goodness the ultimate source on that is Joel Sherman
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Jansen is probably the most essential upgrade of the offseason for me. I've been optimistic given their documented past interest but it's still promising to hear they haven't been scared off of him. Now just get it done. Yates would be fine with me, though if he's the only reliever north of Morgan in stuff/proven quality that makes me slightly uneasy.
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Let's say this a different way, it's nearly impossible for a package to be good enough to get Crochet but way too much to give up for Nico. They're too similar value wise.
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It's also probably hopeful thinking from a White Sox guy on what Crochet can get back. That may be a little steep for Hoerner but it's not dramatically off.
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I'm prepared to be annoyed at how much may need to be added to functionally trade Nico for Crochet, and I'd still be quite worried about how it plays out, but that's a fascinating framework. For as much as I don't want to lose Nico, I do think it's easier to bridge that gap to Shaw than it is to find a pitcher with Crochet's ceiling/salary combination.
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Cubs and Mariners Have Discussed Nico Hoerner Trade
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
4 win second basemen at 10 million AAV aren't easy to come by, the cost is going to hurt if they want to add a proven major leaguer of that caliber. But yes, if they're concerned about the downside of Hoerner failing to play at the level he's established over the last 4 seasons, they may want to invest in a lesser caliber of player that costs less. Like they did when they acquired Adam Frazier, Kolten Wong, and Jorge Polanco. Thank you for asking, Bryan Woo's.
