Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Bryce Harper's wRC+ when he hit free agency is about 20 points less than Soto's. I'm not even telling you that there definitely will not be deferrals in Soto's future deal, but age/number of prime seasons absolutely has an impact on AAV even aside from length.
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Oh you're right why didn't I think of that.
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Cubs Likely to Add Another Starting Pitcher
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
It really is wild that baseball was invented in 2024 and therefore we have no other data points in making this comparison. If you're bearish on Castillo that's fine, but it's disingenuous to pretend that there's no reason people might think Castillo will be better. He's 2 years younger, throws much much harder, post-pandemic he's been worth 13 fWAR to Taillon's 8, and Steamer projects him to be 1.5 fWAR better with similar workload. -
Age matters a lot, and not just with the length of the deal. Soto will play all year at 26 while Ohtani turned 30 before the All-Star break in the first year of his deal
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Minor League Musings
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Bryce Harper had TJ in November and was back in an MLB lineup (as a DH) on May 2nd. That was considered an impressive/aggressive timeline, but it would take about a 33% longer recovery to not be ready for some level of game action in ST. -
They signed Jung Hoo Lee last year, he missed most of the season with injury. Their corner OF is far from settled though.
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Cubs and Mariners Have Discussed Nico Hoerner Trade
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Wait why are we suspecting that Hoerner + Bellinger brings back Castillo and a marginal piece, Castillo and Bellinger have very similar value, you'd need something really significant coming back to toss Hoerner in there too, something the Mariners don't really have since trading 2 SP doesn't make sense for either team. -
Cubs and Mariners Have Discussed Nico Hoerner Trade
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The source for this is a Fansided blog post, so it's somehow less real than any random deal you or I could make up. -
Thaiss' contract is specifically structured to incentivize him accepting outright assignment. Unless a team has an injury and they really want him to be their backup catcher on opening day, Thaiss will make more by staying in Iowa off the 40 man roster.
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I don't expect the team to hand Shaw the opening day 2B role if Nico is traded. It may be someone with half an eye towards Shaw earning the spot by the end of 2025(a multi-position 10th man capable of holding down 2B like Castro or Lowe would be most ideal), but I don't think they're gonna sign Josh Rojas as a platoon hedge and have plan A for offensive value from the position coming via Shaw in some form. I have even more doubts about them doing the same for Caissie, who plays higher up the offensive spectrum, had worse AAA performance, and is a riskier transition with his much greater swing and miss.
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oh thank goodness the ultimate source on that is Joel Sherman
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Jansen is probably the most essential upgrade of the offseason for me. I've been optimistic given their documented past interest but it's still promising to hear they haven't been scared off of him. Now just get it done. Yates would be fine with me, though if he's the only reliever north of Morgan in stuff/proven quality that makes me slightly uneasy.
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Let's say this a different way, it's nearly impossible for a package to be good enough to get Crochet but way too much to give up for Nico. They're too similar value wise.
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It's also probably hopeful thinking from a White Sox guy on what Crochet can get back. That may be a little steep for Hoerner but it's not dramatically off.
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I'm prepared to be annoyed at how much may need to be added to functionally trade Nico for Crochet, and I'd still be quite worried about how it plays out, but that's a fascinating framework. For as much as I don't want to lose Nico, I do think it's easier to bridge that gap to Shaw than it is to find a pitcher with Crochet's ceiling/salary combination.
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Cubs and Mariners Have Discussed Nico Hoerner Trade
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
4 win second basemen at 10 million AAV aren't easy to come by, the cost is going to hurt if they want to add a proven major leaguer of that caliber. But yes, if they're concerned about the downside of Hoerner failing to play at the level he's established over the last 4 seasons, they may want to invest in a lesser caliber of player that costs less. Like they did when they acquired Adam Frazier, Kolten Wong, and Jorge Polanco. Thank you for asking, Bryan Woo's. -
Cubs and Mariners Have Discussed Nico Hoerner Trade
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'm saying that teams don't just draw a straight line of production x years that far into the future for pitchers, more years of control is better than less but on a long enough time horizon injury eating into the value becomes statistically likely. -
Cubs and Mariners Have Discussed Nico Hoerner Trade
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
When talking about a 5 year time horizon, they are. -
Cubs and Mariners Have Discussed Nico Hoerner Trade
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Woo will likely be a super 2 after this year. -
Joc has been pretty close to every day playing time and has a 102 wRC+ against LHP since the pandemic, but without Bellinger you want to have a bench bat that's RHH to hedge Busch and/or PCA anyway so not a big issue.
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I think the bet is that you can replace the bat for less than 15 million. That could be by making a run at someone like Rooker and using the money on the pitching staff, could be signing Conforto (who looks like a good buy low-ish option given his decent 2024 performance) or Pederson, could be trading for a Brandon Lowe. It would require some finesse, but I don't think they would pull the trigger without a clear plan in mind.
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Crochet is 2 years from FA, do you really think the White Sox have any real path to contention before then? That's why he's available and someone like Gilbert on a team who believes they can be competitive is less likely when they would have to recoup some of his value in a less certain/immediate form(prospects) if traded.
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We go over this every few months, you can pretend that all teams aren't trying to fit into finite rosters and budgets, but that doesn't make them a fake consideration. But more to your actual objection, is there any indication outside of 'maybe the Mariners trade a starter' rumors that the biggest rotation arms are actually available? There's zero motivation to trade Kirby, and while Gilbert's at least got an arb salary he's still likely going for a big enough cost that a contending team is unlikely to pull the trigger when they can trade a contract(Castillo) for salary relief or a lesser arm to get a useful piece.
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Yeah, I think if you allow Ballesteros you can shave a grade off the 2nd/3rd piece, like maybe it's McCullough or Ramirez instead of Wicks or Hernandez in that case. I wouldn't touch Shaw or Smith.
