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Transmogrified Tiger

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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger

  1. Transmogrified Tiger
  2. Transmogrified Tiger
    Shaw was drafted as a SS that people assumed would move down the defensive spectrum, and played more than half his defensive innings this year at 3B(including about 70% of his AAA innings). The front office is apparently ready to trade the 3B they made a substantial trade to acquire with Shaw as the only other reasonable option in the org today. It's really silly to try to fit in this contrived meta conspiracy that Cub fans are the ones being some level of irrational by thinking Shaw will play a significant part in the MLB 3B calculation next year.
  3. Transmogrified Tiger
    The Yankees also gave up the guy currently slated to be their opening day 2B, unless of course they were optimistic about Bregman and were sliding Chisholm to 2B...
  4. Transmogrified Tiger
    I don't think you can go without someone else who can at least fake it as an every day 3B, preferably a LHH so you can ease Shaw in when ready(and they can potentially cover for Nico/Dansby via 2B). I like Rojas fine, though I wonder how much more certain his bat is than Workman. As long as they don't think he'll be a -10 3B, I like Jorge Polanco to bounce back strong with the bat. Willi Castro is another who would be a fairly seamless fit if you can talk the Twins into a reasonable deal.
  5. Transmogrified Tiger
    It doesn't make sense for the Cubs to offer this, doesn't make sense for the Astros to accept it, and based on the source probably was never offered or turned down.
  6. Transmogrified Tiger
    "Deal is dead (p. 297)" is communicating an incredible amount of detail in so few characters
  7. Transmogrified Tiger
    None of these are certain but as possibilities: The Yankees are gunshy after paying a huge cost and losing their last rental, especially since they haven't had any time to restock. They don't rate Tucker as highly or the Astros may not rate their system/targets as highly. They aren't in the same division but have had a feud that extends to the GM/ownership level that makes a trade unlikely
  8. Transmogrified Tiger
    That is certainly one way to describe his 5 starts that averaged a HR per outing for an ERA north of 10. But yes, I'm fine with him as a return too(Bellinger isn't underwater but the value isn't significant, I just would rather Warren be the guy who then goes as part of the trade rather than Brown or maybe even Wicks/Assad.
  9. Transmogrified Tiger
    I do not see a ton to be particularly jazzed about with Warren outside of 'good stuff, maybe a different org connects some dots for him'. But if his league reputation exceeds his results I'm more than fine to send him on to Houston if it keeps someone like Brown off the table. That's generally how I would think about a Bellinger trade to begin with, getting a little prospect depth that either directly or indirectly makes it easier to pull off the trades the offseason requires.
  10. Transmogrified Tiger
    The main problem with this is the Seiya projection is off by a full win in all likelihood, so even post-Alonso you're probably marginally worse. The good news is that the Seiya stuff(and especially the Paredes + Seiya + more nonsense) increasingly looks like a voice in Jon Heyman's head.
  11. Transmogrified Tiger
    I think there's room for nuance here. They may not be able to make a deal contingent on an extension, orwith a negotiating window they can back out of. But you can get a sense for Tucker's willingness and ask to know about the probability of getting him signed.
  12. Transmogrified Tiger
    who wants to get stupid
  13. Transmogrified Tiger
    I think if they trade Paredes they probably have optimism that Shaw will be on a similar timeline to PCA last year, though hopefully with a faster learning curve at the plate. So I think you could see a stop gap brought in, preferably one that is LHH and could play a little 2B, which would be a platoon hedge for Shaw and have a role off the bench spelling Nico. Jorge Polanco and Josh Rojas are the two cleanest fits among free agents. Today's Rule 5 pick Workman may also qualify, but an R5 pick with not much pedigree feels like a bridge too far when you're risking 2025 performance with Shaw to begin with.
  14. Transmogrified Tiger
  15. Transmogrified Tiger
    It is slightly odd that no one has been able to get the likely terms on Kelly, but considering Counsell's coy remark on day 1 I don't think there's a legitimate hangup
  16. Transmogrified Tiger
  17. Transmogrified Tiger
    I think it's worth getting very specific about if we're talking about nominal payroll or luxury tax payroll for these purposes. Thankfully there aren't any huge backloading considerations for existing contracts, but the calcs can still make a difference. That 180 million you quoted is basically nominal payroll(guarantees + arb estimates + pre-arb buffer to fill the roster), but not inclusive of the roughly 20 million of player benefits, Minor league 40 man salaries, and pre-arb bonus pool payments that count towards the luxury tax. This matters because if we're talking about the ceiling being 235ish *in relation to the luxury tax line*, a nominal payroll of 235 would put them about 15 million over the tax line. But if 235 *luxury tax* payroll is the ceiling, then Jed has 35 million on the absolute high end to spend, and a mere 20 million on the low end.
  18. Transmogrified Tiger
    Astros MLB.com Beat writer
  19. Transmogrified Tiger
    There are so many things you could legitimately complain about with the front office, why do you have to invent bad faith arguments
  20. Transmogrified Tiger
    If I'm taking on Pressly and giving Paredes, I think the 2nd piece needs to be below the Alcantara/Caissie/Ballesteros level. Triantos sure, Rojas I'm open to it, but I'd just as soon send that package without Pressly.
  21. Transmogrified Tiger
    Ohio having a normal one
  22. Transmogrified Tiger
    Not gonna venture to Musklandia to find the specific tweet, the important thing is the text here is Rome the Astros guy again
  23. Transmogrified Tiger
    Tucker is one of the rarest commodities around(a consistent 5 win player) on only 15ish million and will get you a QO pick on the back end if you don't extend him. It's gonna hurt to acquire him. That said, I don't think Paredes + Smith is an outcome that's particularly likely.
  24. Transmogrified Tiger
    I won't re-do my previous rambling in full, but if it's Paredes instead of Busch, you could do everything the same, hopefully grab Jorge Polanco for 8ish million, and then you get down to only needing SP for about 15 million. At that point a Cease deal would seem pretty possible? Happ/Tucker/Seiya/Busch/Swanson/Polanco/Hoerner/Kelly/PCA Steele/Cease/Shota/Taillon/Boyd Finnegan/Hodge/Pearson/Morgan/Miller/Merryweather/Little/Assad The lineup is a bit shallow, but that's almost certainly a division winner on paper.
  25. Transmogrified Tiger
    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5987064/2024/12/11/astros-cubs-kyle-tucker-seiya-suzuki-trade/ Rosenthal and Rome (Astros beat guy) It also goes on to say that after Soto's deal, a Tucker extension is probably in the 400-500 million range.
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