Transmogrified Tiger

Pretty sure you can have an extension that starts in 2026, though I think that would require them agreeing on a 2025 arb salary first. It's just a question of whether you'd rather have another dead(ish) year of Tucker's contract in his mid-late 30s, or find a way to fit it all in this year.

This is mostly thinking with my fingers, cause I wanted to see the end result if they did trade with an intent of extending Tucker. Let's say that it's Busch that goes out, I see the Paredes fit but given the very real interest in Bregman and how him going to the Astros seems to make this more likely, that seems favored on the Astros side. Call the final package Busch, Caissie, Wesneski. Let's assume Tucker is extending at 35M AAV, that might end up slightly conservative but not beyond budget margin for error anyway. We previously assumed the team had 40ish million to spend, and was looking to add C, SP, RP. They now have 5 million and need all those things plus 1B/DH, so Bellinger obviously has to go. I don't see a clean way that his return can solve for one of the 4 spots needing filled, so let's say wherever he goes is for prospect capital that makes other trades easier. Now you have 33 million. First up is catcher, since it seems clear Kelly is at the finish line. Call it 9 million AAV to be conservative since he's one of the last ones standing. 24 million for SP, RP, 1B. Reliever now. They were linked with Finnegan, and he seems like a decent fit for this scenario as someone who won't break the bank but has the stuff and pedigree to qualify as the leverage relief add. Call it 8 million AAV, 16 million for SP and 1B. Now is when you have to decide on the trade option, because you're not doing both of those in a satisfactory way on 16 million, and in FA probably not SP alone. Maybe you make a run at Cease or King since SD has to cut payroll and they're 1 year options in range? That also requires a 1B option that isn't late arb or FA. King + Yandy Diaz is very close(especially if our FA/Tucker estimates were at all high) but requires a lot of trade assets and would require ever more creativity next year with both King and Yandy being FA. Just a very narrow road.

Here are the things I'm really really curious about a potential Tucker deal. Can you extend him at all? And does that extension start in 2025? I assume that would be Jed's preference to avoid another post-prime year, but that eats up a lot(almost all?) of the money the team has to work with on the current roster What MLB talent has to go to get Tucker? Paredes going out might help a little with any money crunch, but creates a hole that is difficult to fill(Shaw cannot be the opening day plan A). Busch plays an easier to fill position but exacerbates the spending problem in order to backfill him. What's the plan for pitching? If Tucker is eating up monetary and trade resources, it makes for a very narrow road to getting both another SP and a late inning RP unless all indications were way off about payroll. Or, Tucker isn't extended and you've used a ton of resources and shuffled the roster significantly for a single shot at 2025. These aren't unanswerable questions(even in a Tucker extension scenario), but boy am I not really sure how Jed would do it.

He is only one year from Free Agency. I believe we don't know a ton about his interest in an extension, other than the Astros didn't get much of anywhere with that. He is not a Boras client.

For those who want to go down a rung from the beat reporter level of speculation

ZiPS gets released team by team throughout the offseason, so you won't see the leaderboard style tables until around Spring Training. 12 teams have been released so far, you can click to see the post for any individual team from the home page or any of those posts: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-projection-colorado-rockies/

Astros beat writer: Notable in that he 1) when asked to make a 'bold prediction' says that Tucker will not be in Houston Opening Day 2) uses prospect haul as one of the motivations for that deal

Cubs move down to 17

I struggle to think that adding one bat after subtracting Bellinger isn't the plan. It doesn't strike me as logical or in line with how Jed has built rosters to say DH is an extension of the bench and that means we can't have a starting caliber hitter that doesn't have a primary position. I would take that to think that the person can't *only* be a DH caliber defender(a la JDM) though, and maybe it increases the likelihood of that addition having more positional flexibility(Castro, Lowe). The only other way that could hold true to me is if Jed sees that as the mechanism to break in the prospects, which for as bullish as I am on both the offense and the prospects themselves, seems like a fairly silly risk to take in a make or break season.

Sharma: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5984787/2024/12/10/seiya-suzuki-chicago-cubs-trade-talks/ And the article's kicker: "But at the moment, both Wolfe and team sources suggest such a move seems unlikely."

I think the subsequent commentary from other (better) reporters than Rogers puts this situation in a different light. But maybe more to the point, I don't think that Jed is going to let Seiya's preference for RF over DH drive the direction of the offseason that will define if he keeps his job.

FWIW, the interpretation of the Suzuki comments seems to vary on whose account you're reading. Rogers, Montemurro, and Bastian all tweeted about it and Jesse's was the only one who framed it in a particularly negative light(mildshock.gif). It did give the impression that Seiya isn't super jazzed about being a full-time DH, but I also would hesitate to go so far that it would be a blocker for other acquisitions. It's not hard to find defensive starts for corner OF and Wolfe isn't ever gonna say 'yeah he's a DH of course'.

Good stuff, I've liked Finnegan for a while but as a primary RP addition the HR made me antsy. It's good to know there's a reasonable tweak that should in theory help cut that down.

The draft lottery is today at 4:30 Central: https://www.mlb.com/athletics/news/2025-mlb-draft-lottery-odds?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage The Cubs have about a 1 in 150 shot at the number 1 pick, and some unknown (but fairly small) odds of moving up from #16.

Maybe! Maybe they think one or more of the AAA guys is plug and play, and they really like Wicks. Maybe some other suitor has a player they like even more where that potential trade off isn't necessary. I think most people in this thread would agree that it would be preferred to not trade Paredes or Busch. I also think it's very possible if not likely that in order to get a Tucker trade over the line that line needs to be crossed. Side note: See how this is a much more interesting and useful thread of conversation than just proclaiming everyone who had an opinion on what the *Astros* would require in trade are sheeple prospect huggers

I would love it if that deal were prospects instead, but the Astros still have a core under contract and are making noise about signing Bregman or a similar investment. If they love an Alcantara or Ballesteros that’s great, but especially given the likely competition for Tucker I think it’s very possible a completed deal requires subtracting from the MLB team.

That 20ish million all goes to Tucker if extended. Maybe you can delay the start of the deal(a little odd since he’d need to agree to arb terms first), but that creates friction by adding another post prime year which Jed(and objective evaluations) won’t like. If you don’t have an extension it feels like a ton of risky chair shuffling for not an enormous upgrade.

They are widely reported to need to cut salary before making any additions since they’re one of the teams in limbo with their TV deal. They’ll try to offload Vazquez and Paddack first, but Vazquez is very underwater and Paddack’s injury history may scare off the small market teams that might see him more palatable than FA options.

Tucker would certainly qualify as the big swing many have been hoping to see from Jed. I think it's probably more wishful thinking, but there are some breadcrumbs that it could be something to come to fruition. As mentioned upthread Tucker is a great target and doesn't have red flags that might make Jed more gunshy, his current team is decidedly not going to have serious extension talks, and he's not a Boras client so if that's something he wants there's a path to trade + extension. On the other hand, the Astros seem like they're not eager to give him away and are looking for a soft reboot, plus as an OF he'll have no shortage of suitors. Does a deal have to require a Busch or Paredes to get done? If you're doing that plus sending Bellinger away so you can take on Tucker's 15 million arb estimate, do you have the resources to make the rest of the moves you want to make plus adding a starting caliber position player? What about if the extension gets over the line and you've effectively gained AAV over Paredes + Bellinger in the process? I'm left with thinking this is a good enough fit that I could see this being where Jed tries to plant his flag, but also that there's enough hurdles that pulling it off would increase the complexity and difficulty of the remainder of the offseason to avoid diluting Tucker's impact too much.

Lopez's deal is backloaded so the AAV for the Cubs would be 21.75. He's a good pitcher and worth pursuing but it's unclear how motivated the Twins will be to make a deal for him(instead of clearing other salaries) unless you make it extra worth their while.

Relievers are mostly random number generators, the idea that you can pay a few million dollars more on a 1 year deal to lock in a floor of productivity is wishful thinking. Maybe it's partially true for that one year at the very top of the market where you also have to flip a coin for years 2, 3, 4, and beyond, but even those have a much higher failure rate than other acquisitions.

Kelly is dramatically better defensively, and he's reached much higher offensive heights. Kelly has 3 seasons of starter-level playing time and at least a 99 wRC+, and his wRC+ since leaving St. Louis(where he only got 131 PA across 3 seasons) is 90. Thaiss has never exceeded an 86 wRC+ in any season, but been more consistent about that 80s level.

Rogers describing this as done, I believe

'making progress towards a deal' has become writer speak for 'agreed to sign but I can't confirm 100%', so this seems to be pretty real