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Transmogrified Tiger

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  1. Transmogrified Tiger
    Use whatever descriptor you want, but in last year's offensive environment being an above average hitter with 30+ steals at an elite rate meant that only 2 players were clearly better offensively. Maybe the offensive environment reverts in a way that benefits others more than Nico(though he will see progress from Wrigley's likely reversion too), but that's the current reality. The moral of the story is that Nico gets systemically underrated because he only hits 1-2 HR a month instead of 2-3. He is very valuable at the plate.
  2. Transmogrified Tiger
    An exhaustive list of 2B who were clearly better than Hoerner's established offensive norm last year: Ketel Marte Jose Altuve Matt Shaw is a great prospect, I'm very high on him. Assuming he is going to be an elite offensive 2B on day 1, never mind the massive defensive downgrade, is a mistake. Nico Hoerner is really, really good.
  3. Transmogrified Tiger
    https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer The Cubs will always lose their 2nd highest pick and 500k of international money for signing a QO FA. By going over the tax threshold, they also give up their 5th highest pick if they do so.
  4. Transmogrified Tiger
    The value lost in the QO is not the 1 in 15 chance of drafting another Justin Steele, it's the pool money that impacts the rest of the class(including what you can offer your 1st round pick) on top of losing that pick. This is why with rare exception the best run teams(even those who spend significantly above the Cubs level) do not sign a QO FA unless they've also lost a QO FA to hedge.
  5. Transmogrified Tiger
    1. Planned upgrades can make a big difference when replacing poor production. Non-Amaya catchers combined for a 45 wRC+, forty-five! Replacing them with a 85 wRC+(Jansen's career: 100, Kelly: 85, Higashioka: 81) is roughly equivalent to upgrading from 2024 Michael Busch to 2024 Freddie Freeman(to say nothing of Amaya improving on his own line). Similarly, 2024 Morel to Paredes' career/2024 wRC+ is roughly equivalent to upgrading from 2024 Ian Happ to 2024 Bryce Harper. To that end, the Cubs had largely closed any holes by midseason, they were 9th in wRC+ after the All-Star break. They've lost essentially nothing from that lineup and had little in the way of extreme over-performance. 2. The 'missing offense' is largely a function of Wrigley being an extreme pitcher's park last year. The Cubs were 24th in wRC+ at home and 6th on the road. As far as consistency goes, last year the Cubs did not go 3 straight road games without reaching 4+ runs. At home that happened EIGHT times. Thankfully there's little reason for this to continue, the renovations appear to have made Wrigley more pitcher friendly, but in the sense it went from a slight hitter's park to a neutral park, not one we'd expect to be at the bottom of park factors with regularity. This is a big part of why pitching is the focus, because the pitching staff will be harmed by that reversion to norms like the offense will be helped.
  6. Transmogrified Tiger
    Jed may well fight Bob in the lobby of the Winter Meetings hotel
  7. Transmogrified Tiger
    It doesn't really matter, Bellinger + Eovaldi/Flaherty costs less money than Conforto + Eovaldi/Flaherty/Castillo
  8. Transmogrified Tiger
    It is a pretty good offense as is, but even setting that aside, if they trade him to free up the money, it's because they believe they can find a 1B/OF bat easier and/or less expensively than a good SP. That doesn't seem hard to imagine. To use names as an illustration, Michael Conforto will come cheaper than Eovaldi or Flaherty.
  9. Transmogrified Tiger
    They may like the available SP at that level more than the RP, they may be trading one or more of the pre-arb depth to get the big SP, and/or they may be more bearish on that group's ability to take 32 starts at a decent level between injuries and potential regression from Assad.
  10. Transmogrified Tiger
    Most of the discussed trade targets are not on pre-arb salaries. A real catcher, 2 more arms(SP/RP or RP/RP), and a couple bench additions can hit 40 million pretty quickly.
  11. Transmogrified Tiger
    Keegan got 850k, just above league minimum: https://apnews.com/article/hays-finnegan-rodgers-free-agents-b4b78dcd742d874f206a1f638f981963 Not called out as a split contract though others in the article are, so have to assume it's a straight MLB deal for the time being.
  12. Transmogrified Tiger
    I'm not sure I saw him make a bad throw decision or put the ball in the wrong spot the entire game, maybe on one of the early red zone trips when the margins were even smaller. Really good poise on a few 3rd down blitzes too.
  13. Transmogrified Tiger
    We can make the correct point that Bellinger doesn't have a ton of surplus value without silly exaggerations. Bellinger made 17 million after being an injured wreck for 2 seasons, thinking he's only in the green at less than 15 million is clearly wrong. His 2024 batting line with slightly above average defense in CF would have surplus value, and we know he clearly has potential to be greater than that(his career wRC+ is 10 points higher).
  14. Transmogrified Tiger
    The source for that is a random Fansided post, which is basically as high quality or plugged into the team as you or I going 'what about this trade'?
  15. Transmogrified Tiger
    I think if their pitch mix and approach to hitters is different enough it's not a complete dealbreaker, but I do think it's suboptimal. I would probably still take Kikuchi over Eovaldi simply because I think there's a chance Kikuchi is elite after his pitch mix change post-trade, but I'd definitely target a RHP in trade if I went that way.
  16. Transmogrified Tiger
    I have a very similar mental model for the offseason, you can swap some names in and out with minimal difference too(Kikuchi/Eovaldi, Jansen/Kelly, Grichuk/Laureano, Holmes/Robertson). The thing I really wish I had a better handle on is how they felt about the non-optionable relievers. Even setting aside Thompson who may yet have a split contract, you've got Merryweather, Miller, Pearson, and at least one FA. Do they add another one they like to play the odds that someone falls apart or gets hurt before the options cause trouble? Or do they bank that money for the rest of the offseason(including the possibility of 2 SP) and lean on the SP prospects as further pen reinforcement that will shake itself out? The answer to that goes a long way to thinking about RP targets, because espeically post-tender deadline there's a number of guys I'm interested in, but not if they're the only other RP added to the mix.
  17. Transmogrified Tiger
    Between Amaya's uncertain production and the soft skills/experience that the FO values in the position, I would be pretty surprised if they ended up making such a deal for a catcher. And for any other position it runs into competition with their own prospects, so I would expect any deal of this flavor would be more on the pitching side.
  18. Transmogrified Tiger
    The last 3 years he has a 58 wRC+ away from Coors, he's cooked. Sign me up for Rojas, that one seems a glove-like fit.
  19. Transmogrified Tiger
    Thaiss got a split contract: https://apnews.com/article/matt-thaiss-cubs-contract-ea13cbc95f36b16566c12da0f06ae71a
  20. Transmogrified Tiger
    Adames would be about the 5th or 6th best hitter in the current Cubs lineup, if you want to claim the team is missing a 'move the needle' offensive player(eh) it needs to be someone better than him.
  21. Transmogrified Tiger
    If the Mariners show genuine interest they're by far my favorite destination just because of the potential matchups that would be mutually beneficial. Castillo and Bellinger despite what was said upthread are in pretty similar situations value wise, and as far as 'bad contracts' go, I've been intrigued by getting Mitch Garver as a lefty masher off the bench(bonus for getting him in an odd numbered year!).
  22. Transmogrified Tiger
    The Rays definitely aren't taking Bellinger with their stadium/financial situation. I do wonder if the Royals might be an option, they have the need, some ambition to add offense, and there's varying levels of fit in terms of return. Might be easier for them to take on Bellinger on a 1+1 than convincing a free agent with lesser upside to take their money(and on a riskier longer term deal). Risky given their TV situation though.
  23. Transmogrified Tiger
    Oh no, the number is going up out of spite, can't have that So you think it's roughly a 50/50 proposition that Thaiss is tendered? The guy who was DFA'd and sold for cash during a period players are frequently laundered off the 40 man?
  24. Transmogrified Tiger
    What do you think the odds are that the Cubs tender him tomorrow
  25. Transmogrified Tiger
    What do you think the odds are that the Cubs tender him tomorrow
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