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Transmogrified Tiger

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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger

  1. Transmogrified Tiger
    They may like the available SP at that level more than the RP, they may be trading one or more of the pre-arb depth to get the big SP, and/or they may be more bearish on that group's ability to take 32 starts at a decent level between injuries and potential regression from Assad.
  2. Transmogrified Tiger
    Most of the discussed trade targets are not on pre-arb salaries. A real catcher, 2 more arms(SP/RP or RP/RP), and a couple bench additions can hit 40 million pretty quickly.
  3. Transmogrified Tiger
    Keegan got 850k, just above league minimum: https://apnews.com/article/hays-finnegan-rodgers-free-agents-b4b78dcd742d874f206a1f638f981963 Not called out as a split contract though others in the article are, so have to assume it's a straight MLB deal for the time being.
  4. Transmogrified Tiger
    I'm not sure I saw him make a bad throw decision or put the ball in the wrong spot the entire game, maybe on one of the early red zone trips when the margins were even smaller. Really good poise on a few 3rd down blitzes too.
  5. Transmogrified Tiger
    We can make the correct point that Bellinger doesn't have a ton of surplus value without silly exaggerations. Bellinger made 17 million after being an injured wreck for 2 seasons, thinking he's only in the green at less than 15 million is clearly wrong. His 2024 batting line with slightly above average defense in CF would have surplus value, and we know he clearly has potential to be greater than that(his career wRC+ is 10 points higher).
  6. Transmogrified Tiger
    The source for that is a random Fansided post, which is basically as high quality or plugged into the team as you or I going 'what about this trade'?
  7. Transmogrified Tiger
    I think if their pitch mix and approach to hitters is different enough it's not a complete dealbreaker, but I do think it's suboptimal. I would probably still take Kikuchi over Eovaldi simply because I think there's a chance Kikuchi is elite after his pitch mix change post-trade, but I'd definitely target a RHP in trade if I went that way.
  8. Transmogrified Tiger
    I have a very similar mental model for the offseason, you can swap some names in and out with minimal difference too(Kikuchi/Eovaldi, Jansen/Kelly, Grichuk/Laureano, Holmes/Robertson). The thing I really wish I had a better handle on is how they felt about the non-optionable relievers. Even setting aside Thompson who may yet have a split contract, you've got Merryweather, Miller, Pearson, and at least one FA. Do they add another one they like to play the odds that someone falls apart or gets hurt before the options cause trouble? Or do they bank that money for the rest of the offseason(including the possibility of 2 SP) and lean on the SP prospects as further pen reinforcement that will shake itself out? The answer to that goes a long way to thinking about RP targets, because espeically post-tender deadline there's a number of guys I'm interested in, but not if they're the only other RP added to the mix.
  9. Transmogrified Tiger
    Between Amaya's uncertain production and the soft skills/experience that the FO values in the position, I would be pretty surprised if they ended up making such a deal for a catcher. And for any other position it runs into competition with their own prospects, so I would expect any deal of this flavor would be more on the pitching side.
  10. Transmogrified Tiger
    The last 3 years he has a 58 wRC+ away from Coors, he's cooked. Sign me up for Rojas, that one seems a glove-like fit.
  11. Transmogrified Tiger
    Thaiss got a split contract: https://apnews.com/article/matt-thaiss-cubs-contract-ea13cbc95f36b16566c12da0f06ae71a
  12. Transmogrified Tiger
    Adames would be about the 5th or 6th best hitter in the current Cubs lineup, if you want to claim the team is missing a 'move the needle' offensive player(eh) it needs to be someone better than him.
  13. Transmogrified Tiger
    If the Mariners show genuine interest they're by far my favorite destination just because of the potential matchups that would be mutually beneficial. Castillo and Bellinger despite what was said upthread are in pretty similar situations value wise, and as far as 'bad contracts' go, I've been intrigued by getting Mitch Garver as a lefty masher off the bench(bonus for getting him in an odd numbered year!).
  14. Transmogrified Tiger
    The Rays definitely aren't taking Bellinger with their stadium/financial situation. I do wonder if the Royals might be an option, they have the need, some ambition to add offense, and there's varying levels of fit in terms of return. Might be easier for them to take on Bellinger on a 1+1 than convincing a free agent with lesser upside to take their money(and on a riskier longer term deal). Risky given their TV situation though.
  15. Transmogrified Tiger
    Oh no, the number is going up out of spite, can't have that So you think it's roughly a 50/50 proposition that Thaiss is tendered? The guy who was DFA'd and sold for cash during a period players are frequently laundered off the 40 man?
  16. Transmogrified Tiger
    What do you think the odds are that the Cubs tender him tomorrow
  17. Transmogrified Tiger
    What do you think the odds are that the Cubs tender him tomorrow
  18. Transmogrified Tiger
    What do you think the odds are that the Cubs tender him tomorrow
  19. Transmogrified Tiger
    What do you think the odds are that the Cubs tender him tomorrow
  20. Transmogrified Tiger
    There is a chasm of good and less good outcomes in between saying 'welp Jed is going to build another 80 win team again' before the non-tender deadline and having confidence they're building a 90 win floor(which 1-2 teams/year will have). Can we at least try and be intellectually honest about this
  21. Transmogrified Tiger
    Bellinger has a career 118 wRC+ and has been at worst an average CF defensively, more frequently a few runs above average. Even if 2024 was the new norm, that profile(110 wRC+, +2ish CF defense, 10+ steals) is very valuable. Chisholm and Carroll were 4 win players with that + 20 steals, so with wins costing at least 9 million, I think Bellinger's 2 year deal isn't underwater. That doesn't mean he's easy to trade, because not all teams are looking for a CF or could take on that contract even if they wanted to. I suspect given the likely diversity of opinions about Bellinger that what may be perceived as shopping him is trying to get a sense for his market early in the offseason.
  22. Transmogrified Tiger
    More information about "Rosenthal: Cubs Want To Trade Cody Bellinger"
    In a recent piece by The Athletic, rival front offices are suggesting that Jed Hoyer is interested in trading Cody Bellinger. This isn't startling news but it's still noteworthy. When Bellinger opted into the second year of his contract, speculation began about the future of the centerfielder and first baseman. The Cubs have both center field and first base covered in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch, respectively. The source here seems to be *other* front offices so worth taking with a grain of salt, but Rosenthal's words carry weight so worth taking into consideration.
  23. Transmogrified Tiger
    Jed has added a 3rd catcher that we immediately overthink its importance before. More offseasons than not actually.
  24. Transmogrified Tiger
    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5935761/2024/11/21/blake-snell-free-agency-dodgers-mlb-offseason/ The source here seems to be *other* front offices so worth taking with a grain of salt, but Rosenthal's words carry weight so worth taking into consideration.
  25. Transmogrified Tiger
    Kilian
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