Transmogrified Tiger

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How can the Yankees afford Machado? Or do they just not give a damn about the luxury tax now? *Wonders question* *Awaits TT's perfectly understandable response* After the Headley deal, it's pretty likely the Yankees stay under the luxury tax this year, so the Yankees getting Machado next year is very similar to the plan for the Cubs and Harper. They'll unequivocally go over, but probably not into the 40 million penalty and they'll only be penalized as first timers since they reset the clock.

i'd be ok with this, depending on the price. Just sign Cobb if you want to pay a bunch of money to a guy who won't throw 200 IP. This is my initial reaction, Duffy is getting 4/60 so it's not a money saver, and certainly the cost for Duffy is greater than the comp pick forfeited for Cobb. Knowing that the front office knows that too, brainstorming some theories why it would still make sense. - This is part of the Cobb negotiation, either to pressure him to sign or as a contingency if some team shows up with 5/95 for him - Duffy is a year younger, and while his injury history isn't pristine, it's fair to say he's a slightly healthier arm than Cobb, especially when you consider that age. - Duffy might have more room for growth than Cobb, Duffy hasn't yet worked with Hickey and he has better fielding-independent numbers - Since Duffy is getting near market rates, maybe his trade cost isn't all that high. I'm still skeptical, but I can see a path to it making sense.

I just assume this is a power move where they trade for Harvey, lock him out of the spring training complex, then release him right before opening day.

Looks like Portland might be selling Nagbe to Atlanta, which is a wowowow thought on many levels.

This is a fascinating article on what it's like to cover the winter meetings: https://theathletic.com/180861/2017/12/10/trade-secrets-the-key-to-covering-baseballs-winter-meetings-is-an-adjoining-door/

From his call up in 2015 through Memorial Day 2016, JBJ had 458 PA with a .384 wOBA. His BABIP was high, but the production was so good that even with regression he looked like a 4ish win player considering position and defense, give or take. Since Memorial Day 2016, JBJ has 974 PA of .317 wOBA. His BABIP looks a bit suppressed, but that's also a pretty large sample and is probably more indicative of adjustments pitchers have made to control his contact. I believe he's also had some injury problems that may cloud this more. I would then think of Bradley in a similar light as I do Baez. He's going to give you a pretty high floor with position and defense, and not hurt you with the bat while also having potential for a star turn. I don't think that's something to bank on though, and as a result I don't see a great fit on a team that already has no shortage of players with that type of potential they can bet on(Baez, Russell, Schwarber).

For those who are looking for something resembling optimism, remember Heyward had about a .320 wOBA after the all-star break. That with +10 defense is a 2 win player, that with +20 defense is a 3 win RF.

I wouldn't be even a little surprised if they added another reliever that served as the closer. The Davis trade(and Chapman before that) showed how much importance they placed on the back of the pen, and there's been very little that transpired since then that would change their mind. You can look at the current pen with Morrow and not see a true need, but that's not the same as having a pen that's going to be very strong, especially come playoff time.

Gregerson off the board [tweet] [/tweet]

Because the Cubs have too many outfielders with last names that start with H, but not enough relievers like that.

I don't want to go through the same thing in another thread, but Mike Montgomery threw 130 innings with a 3.38 ERA last year.

2 years + option is very nice.

Those are the only Capps-specific terms I'm comfortable with.

Good points I’m guessing the FO/coaching staff have similar thoughts and use ideas. That being said, go bring Wade back and go with super bullpen of death. Finish signing Morrow and Cobb, trade Happ for Hand, sign your backup C and OF of choice, go home happy.

To be clear, Morrow has by far the best production of any of the options available, so if they can have him around for a similar season as LA did last year, that's a big deal. And I hadn't realized he spent 20 IP at AAA so that's something too. But I do think there's more to Morrow's durability than simply hoping pre-2016 doesn't happen again. He was pretty intensely babied, and since he doesn't have any precedent for his production(even when excluding health), you have to gamble that he won't stay healthy and simply be less productive. Also, and this can be a positive and a negative, but it's hard for me to see him as a guy who is going to close in the regular season given that lack of durability.

Also allowed 12 more HRs during the regular season in just 10 more IP. You are not making the right inference at me invoking Grimm's name.

46% of Morrow's 45 innings came on 2+ days rest. Carl Edwards, who was famously not used on low rest in many instances, was at 38%.

Justin Grimm threw more MLB innings last year than Morrow did, and he got demoted to Iowa three different times.

Meh on Montgomery starting any games at all? That seems harsh considering he was above average as a starter last year. Meh on Montgomery having a guaranteed rotation spot? Everyone seems to agree that the front office isn't going to allow that regardless. You aren't going to do better than Montgomery as a swingman. He just seems more effective as a reliever, and the times he starts, you're crossing your fingers you get five innings out of him. I think he's fine in a pinch, but not a guy I would plan around. His numbers fell precipitously the second time through the order last year (.188/.232./.256 first time through, .283/.389/.424 second time through) Montgomery started 14 games last year, a couple were on short rest. 7 of those starts went at least 6 innings. Considering the handicap Montgomery had in those couple short rest starts, the ratio of deep starts is about the same as Lester's. But again, I can't really understand the point you're making. Everything you're writing comes across like "I don't think Montgomery should have a rotation spot guys", but that's not something anyone is advocating for and obviously not something the front office is doing. If you literally think he shouldn't be starting at all, then it's gonna be on you to find a 6th starter option that is not only superior to Montgomery, but is available to be acquired, and is optionable or a good reliever as well. This person probably does not exist.

Meh on Montgomery starting any games at all? That seems harsh considering he was above average as a starter last year. Meh on Montgomery having a guaranteed rotation spot? Everyone seems to agree that the front office isn't going to allow that regardless. You aren't going to do better than Montgomery as a swingman.

Cobb is a year removed from TJS and has a qualifying offer attached, so while I like him a lot I'm very skeptical he's going to get something like 5/80.

I have to think at that point you're going with Montgomery as the 6th starter. If I had to wager a guess, I think the big benefit of signing Cobb is finishing the rotation so you know the magnitude of the resources they could commit to the bullpen. You wouldn't want to trade for, say, Brad Hand, without being certain you don't need those same trade assets for the rotation(since the system isn't really deep enough for both).

The initial report is that they were going to drop payroll to 95 million, with Castro and without Gordon and Stanton they're still 10-15 million away depending on exact arb amounts. There were reports that came after that said they wanted to drop to 75 million too. Castro is basically the only player outside of Yelich and Ozuna who makes real money and isn't underwater on the contract. If that rumor of 75 million is at all accurate, it seems real likely they'd need to take Ozuna and/or Yelich and try to package them with another undesirable contract(Ziegler, Volquez, Tazawa, Chen).

Yeah, Stanton has played in 6 full seasons and exceeded 125 games 3 times.