Transmogrified Tiger
-
Posts
38,769 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
70
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
2026 Chicago Cubs Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
-
Manny Machado Traded to the Dodgers
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The inclusion of Russell isn't about trading him, but about trading him for Machado. Think he's a bad person, or his injuries are going to rob his potential, or the bat will never come around? Fine. But trading him for one year of another shortstop(especially one who gets much of their value from defense and has 52 career MLB games at SS) doesn't make much sense to me. Use other stuff to get Machado and then use Russell to get the pitcher those other guys couldn't bring. If you can't get Machado without Russell, then just move on, you still have Baez if you're desperate to trade Russell. -
as an aside, this has been almost thoroughly debunked; estimated that each extra MPH adds just about a foot in distance, and that doesn't account for slower speed pitches being vastly easier to barrel In comparison to a ball on a tee though? Soft toss/BP speeds sure, but hitting a ball at a standstill 400 feet is no joke.
-
Manny Machado Traded to the Dodgers
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Yeah, Russell or Almora + Montgomery I could see, but there's no way Russell + any major leaguer is a deal that makes sense, even if you can make the argument on value. -
Bryant, Rizzo, and Schwarber. Happ and Baez will hit at a 30 HR/650 PA pace but not get enough playing time to get there. Willson will be in the 20s but will be selling out for power a bit less with the amount of time he spends leading off.
-
Longoria getting 15M AAV probably wasn't going to sink the Cardinals at any point in the future. If anything the net positive is that taking on his money wouldn't lower the cost of going after someone like Archer. The Cardinals can trade for all the Longorias and Colomes and sign all the Addison Reeds and Dexter Fowlers they want. It's the Archer/Donaldson/Machado tier of players they truly need to be a persistent threat to the division. Isn’t the theory that a team of 25 guys at 2 WAR beats a team with 5 ten WAR guys and 20 replacement level players? I have no idea what I’m talking about, but I feel like I read that recently. The Cubs have depth and stars. The Cards have depth already. Closing off potential holes or marginal improvements aren't going to bridge the gap. Put another way, Steamer(since we don't have Cubs ZiPS yet) says the difference between the 2 teams is 5 wins at the moment. The Cubs' top 5 projected players account for 22.2 wins. The Cardinals top 5 account for 16.4 wins.
-
Longoria getting 15M AAV probably wasn't going to sink the Cardinals at any point in the future. If anything the net positive is that taking on his money wouldn't lower the cost of going after someone like Archer. The Cardinals can trade for all the Longorias and Colomes and sign all the Addison Reeds and Dexter Fowlers they want. It's the Archer/Donaldson/Machado tier of players they truly need to be a persistent threat to the division.
-
Manny Machado Traded to the Dodgers
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
It's amusing to me that with the market mostly at a standstill, the most exciting rumors and deals have been smart teams looting the few remaining teams that have terrible ownership/front offices. -
The Nationals are notorious for doing deferrals that go beyond the years of the contract, Bobby Bonilla style. That doesn't change the luxury tax calculations though, because the total contract amount and the duration the player is under contract remain the same.
-
Manny Machado Traded to the Dodgers
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I can see the logic, but that also takes a lot of money and still leaves you with a SP need. I'm also a bit skeptical that the Marlins, payroll slashing as they are, would trade Yelich for Javy/Russell, who have the same time to FA and only provide marginal savings through arbitration(especially for Russell). More likely I think you would see a deal for Machado and then one of the infielders going for a controlled SP, it would have to basically be Archer or Stroman for me to be excited about the prospect. You lose infield depth when Machado leaves(especially if it's Happ going for Machado), but you also get a temporary upgrade at SS, a Darvish caliber pitcher without the dollar cost, which means that when the temporary SS upgrade(and his arb salary) disappears you can go after Harper unfettered. Machado (1 year) + Harper (increased likelihood) + Archer v. Darvish + Happ + Alzolay + Russell/Baez + remainder of Archer/Stroman package -
Luhnow seems to worship at the Friedman/Mozeliak altar of efficiency, so color me skeptical he's going to do what it takes to be the top bid for a 31 year old free agent SP.
-
Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek for 2/$13M
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Brett with a good look at Cishek's 2017: http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/12/19/steve-cishek-was-all-universe-after-midseason-trade-to-rays-this-year-cubs-getting-that-guy/ The TL;DR is Cishek was amazing after he was traded to the Rays(and made particular strides against LH hitters), and that's probably in large part to the pitch mix and release point changes they implemented. Probably not a surprise they pulled the trigger on him with Hickey on board then. -
My understanding is that what you've described would lower the luxury tax value of the contract, but in that extreme an example MLB would almost certainly not approve the deal. You're allowed to frontload a contract(Zobrist's is frontloaded, for example), but if you're doing so with an opt out that makes it a certainty those other years aren't going to be used, MLB would step in. You could maybe get away with it if the dollar amounts after the opt out were a high enough proportion of the total contract, but there's also a reason you haven't seen this in the luxury tax era like the NHL did.
-
The luxury tax difference between 6/130 and 4/100(or 6/150) isn't all that great. The teams that are hesitant to give a 25M AAV aren't going to be sprinting to offer 20M with a longer duration.
-
I don't think that part is his opinion or analysis. The Astros and Twins are just the other teams rumored to be interested, IIRC. Yeah, if you look at MLB Trade Rumors, the Twins seem to want to make a move for him, but everyone else's pursuit is pretty lukewarm. There's enough teams out there that his market isn't going to fall to 3/60 or something silly like that, but there's probably a sweet spot of AAV and years that scares off most of those teams that are keeping tabs but is still a fair bit less than what Darvish was expected to get in September.
-
For those missing Len and JD, this is mostly innocuous but JD gets a couple quality zingers in. [tweet] [/tweet]
-
You add prospects as necessary to sell off the final year of Zobrist's deal. That's pretty much it, pending discoveries from the season(e.g. Morrow's arm explodes and RP need reinforced). The assumption here is that they don't care about exceeding the luxury tax up to the 40 million threshold in which they start hurting draft picks.
-
so this is the version of Theo we're gonna get this year, I ain't mad about it
-
Out of curiosity, what do you think of plays like this, where there is firm possession(if only momentarily) before getting the ball jarred loose?
-
General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
This article makes the argument that shifting is not actually helpful and may actually be hurting teams. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/36733/baseball-therapy-burn-shifts/ -
I'd explore it. But, only if its at the league minimum. He was awful last year obviously and lost close to 2 MPH off his FB. Is it real or did his pitching coaches horsefeathers him up? My guess is its the former and he may justbbe at the stage where he's not a ML pitcher anymore. But, I'd take a look and find out, I guess. It looks like he's lost about 1 mph from his Cubs days, he was 89-90 as a starter and 91-92 as a reliever, and last year it was more 88s as a starter and 90s as a reliever.
-
Everyone just realized this offseason that Lance Lynn is actually a pitching machine stolen from a Pennsylvania batting cage, modified to throw with a little movement, and then stuffed with pillows to look like a person.
-
General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
It could be either, my mind went to a lefty first. Probably because if it's a lefty you're seeing their face, and if it's a righty you are seeing the back of their head. -
I have to assume that's correct, otherwise you'd start to see a huge uptick in deferrals. Also counting deferral years doesn't follow the logic of how similar mechanics are handled like signing bonuses or option years.
-
Manny Machado Traded to the Dodgers
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
This is going to sound worse than I mean it, but what problem does Machado solve? He likely gives you plus defense at SS, but the Cubs get less marginal benefit from that than maybe any team in recent memory. He should be a good hitter(elite for his position), which is an improvement. But he hasn't been steady in that regard so we can't play up certainty as a benefit either. He's obviously not a long term solution either. It seems like trying to wedge Machado in simply because he's available and not because he actually improves the team in proportion with his cost. Let someone else trade for him and then pounce on Gausman/Britton, which would move the needle more for this team, have longer term benefits, and probably have similar costs. -
The only person under contract beyond Bryant's arbitration years is Heyward. There's definitely some risk with all of Bryant, Baez, Russell, and Schwarber hitting FA the same year, but that's so far away as to not be a concern impacting today's decisions, because they may extend, trade, or not care about the non-Bryant guys by that point. Also, predicting the composition of the rest of the roster in 4 years is impossible.
