Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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You in theory can(pending league approval) but the player needs to have something in it for them to agree. Ohtani is a unicorn in the sense that he'll have zero issues with short term cash flow through endorsements and such, so there's no hit to his quality of life. Then after retirement he can flee California(and possibly the US entirely) and have much better tax treatment on the bulk of his guaranteed money. Giving, say, Matthew Boyd a 30 million dollar deal with 25 million deferred has much more downside for that caliber of player, and they do 'lose' money through TMV on deferrals so there's a natural pressure the other direction. -
The AAV that counts towards the Luxury Tax is based on the net present value of the contract, that NPV is lowered by deferrals. Historically this didn't make a huge difference because deferrals were rare and when they did happened they didn't move the AAV by much since the deferred amount was on the margins. The Dodgers have popularized doing heavy deferrals, probably as a tax dodge for the player, which can change the AAV enough to be meaningful(Ohtani being the extreme example). In Bregman's case it's not nearly as seismic(appears to be lowering AAV by about 10%), but the motivation is likely similar as the amount Bregman 'loses' (from time value of money) is potentially offset by tax differences between Illinois/Chicago and his home in retirement(likely AZ where he lives now).
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Again, that is not how $/WAR works. You don't just take the first year of the deal and assume that's the productivity for the entirety of it. You need to discount for age and injury, especially for a pitcher and a deal as long as Cease's.
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No one expects Cease to put up nearly 25 WAR over his deal, if they did he would've gotten another 50 million. The market rate for FA is not dividing AAV by last year or this year's projected WAR, it's about expectations for the entirety of the contract which will inevitably have age-related decline in long term deals(never mind injury risk, especially for pitchers).
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They very much do not, market rate is a bit north of 10 million/WAR
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Gotta update your $/WAR priors man, saying Bregman hasn't been worth $35 in three years is some 'back in my day we could get a milkshake for a nickel' stuff
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He's fractured 3 different bones in 5 seasons, it gets intertwined with his inconsistency when healthy but he's not someone who would have a track record of reliability or availability.
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Accumulating PA by hitting high in the order and not being pinch hit/platooned is not going to lead to the truest signal. I don't think Bellinger's body is on the brink of falling apart, but he's missed about 25 days to the IL per year since the pandemic season with several different injuries. I don't think saying 'he got a bunch of PA so no risk there' is accurate, plus he's entering his 30s now where the body is at increased risk of breaking down.
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Bellinger missed a month on the IL in both of his Cubs seasons
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Cerami: Cubs Finalizing Edward Cabrera Trade
Transmogrified Tiger replied to ILMindState's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Last offseason's "horse who should go deep into October" lasted 11 starts on his 6/210 deal before his elbow exploded. Last offseason's "upside McGee held together with duct tape" also missed time to injury but was healthy in October and gave the team 34 innings of 3.11 ERA en route to a title. The Cubs need the chance at a guy who can provide 2 strong starts in a postseason series a whole lot more than the fake certainty of banking 180 innings. -
Cerami: Cubs Finalizing Edward Cabrera Trade
Transmogrified Tiger replied to ILMindState's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
As pre-eminent Owen Caissie hater this is a glorious day, phenomenal stuff -
Cerami: Cubs Finalizing Edward Cabrera Trade
Transmogrified Tiger replied to ILMindState's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Yeah 3 years of Cabrera with what the return seems to be circling on means you've priced in a fair amount of medical risk. And its risk this roster can afford to take, because even if one of Brown/Assad/Wicks goes to Miami there's still no shortage of guys to soak up starts at a cromulent level, but open questions about how many are good enough to start twice in a playoff series. -
Wonder what Harbaugh's exit interview was like. "John, you came a whisper away from the playoffs despite Lamar missing 4+ games with multiple injuries. So I guess our first question is, how dare you?"
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I mean we're talking about Boras's most famous mouthpiece proclaiming the most mild possible interest, I would not use that to make any inferences about how Jed is operating relative to plan.
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Harvey is getting the 15th highest AAV of FA RP, and all the names below him on the list are some combination of lefty specialists that aren’t leverage options, guys who throw substantially less hard, or pitchers that simply aren’t nearly as good. The degree of any potential overpay is a rounding error as it relates to impacting other signings unless you think he was destined to be closer to the league minimum, in which case it’s you and not the Cubs that need to recalibrate on his value.
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The Cubs have won 9 more games than the Rangers over the last 3 years, including the highest single season between them while the Rangers have the two lowest win totals in that span.
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Also paying the QO price for King to potentially lose him after a year dulls the benefit further.
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I might be missing a team, but it seems like the primary competition for him may be the Giants and the Mets* *As long as they offer him on one of the days the Mets think money is fake, and not one of the days when Pete Alonso asked for money.
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Make Fun of the Bears' Stadium Woes in Here
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Outshined_One's topic in Other Sports
There's a train station about 100 yards from the northern edge of Lumen. The closest train station to Soldier Field I believe is the Roosevelt Red line, which is a mile walk from the stadium. -
Make Fun of the Bears' Stadium Woes in Here
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Outshined_One's topic in Other Sports
The Arlington Heights location is further from soldier field/downtown Chicago than Gary is. I don’t think it’ll happen, but Gary being just across the state line wouldn’t be the reason since everyone will still consider it Chicago -
Whole lot of 'woah look out for the mystery team on Bregman' all of a sudden, feel like it's either getting close to closing time for his decision or Boras is extremely underwhelmed by the interest so far.
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Winter Meetings Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Said a different way, especially since several of the roster spots we're talking about are likely to go to league minimum or near-minimum players, that money can go further than you think. In fact I think there's probably only 3-4 additions that will be materially above the league minimum, barring trades. Add in the possibility that following a playoff season and resetting LT penalties they'll be even the slightest bit more aggressive with payroll, and it's not hard to imagine there being 45-50 million for those 3-4 spots. Which could be something like King + Okamoto + Keller, or Imai + Polanco + Fairbanks, or Bregman + Sandy Alcantara + Luke Weaver, etc. -
Winter Meetings Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
It's not an enormous difference but the roster resource payroll number assumes a full roster, filling in league minimum spots where necessary. So for the purposes of thinking about salary room available for additions, that 44.5 million number shy of the tax line is actually easier to think of as 50 million(7 * 780k = 5.5 million), otherwise you'd double count the league minimum values for those 7 roster spots. -
I like this idea of putting a converted middle infielder at 3B who adds a bit of pop(.170ish IsoP) and can play solid defensively by maximizing their middle infield quickness in lieu of having a cannon for an arm. But enough about Matt Shaw already.
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Winter Meetings Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think it could also mean a little bit of a payroll boost, and them being comfortable with the position player group after signing a bat, and being okay with Zombro specials for most(all?) of the relievers they still want to add.
