Transmogrified Tiger
-
Posts
38,761 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
70
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
-
got dang it
-
Costa Rica with a nightmare draw
-
Canada really needs to pray for H
-
We can only draw the UEFA team by drawing on B, but can get Cameroon or Ghana by drawing on A or B. Feels like the CAF team is statistically most likely
-
Canada will be a big decider but E is pretty rough too
-
With Poland going to C, that means all of Cameroon, Ecuador, Ghana, and Wales/UEFA will be in play for Pot 4. Gonna want Ghana from that.
-
YES
-
NO SENEGAL NO SENEGAL NO SENEGAL
-
Argentina/Mexico means one of the 3 other UEFA's has to go there, and only 3 of the groups are gonna have 2 UEFA teams after Pot 2, so yeah should be good odds.
-
the match v. England is the 2nd match, on black friday
-
I think the pot 1 teams are guaranteed the first spot in the group but the other pots could technically be 2-4, so they'll take one random ball from various groups when deciding the subsequent pot teams. That only decides matchup order in a group.
-
In terms of pairings it's A/B and E/F for me, I also could get on board with D with a sufficiently light pot 3/4 draw
-
They really got the Nigerian guy out here just to say the Pot 1 teams are in spot 1 in their group huh
-
I don't particularly want England, but at least now I have the 'horsefeathers around and find out' angle
-
-
Someone did 100k simulations and these were the odds of every opponent:
-
General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
I don't really care if(or how) they do it or not, but designating between whether a no change on replay was 'confirmed' or 'stands'/inconclusive would be nice. On the broadcast they often communicate that(though not all the time and not always with 100% certainty), and in the ballpark you never get that info. -
They do have a better than 50% chance of getting one of the AFC teams or the weak CAF teams at least. But yeah, aside from pulling Qatar's group you aren't going to be jazzed no matter what since they're gonna have like Argentina/Switzerland or Spain/Uruguay at best as your starting point.
-
Looking at the pots and rules a bit more, there's a couple key inflection points that I can see. The most obvious is getting drawn with an AFC team(63% chance), especially if you can do so in Pot 1 or 3(50%). The other is if you can get drawn with one of the weak CAF teams in Pot 3, Tunisia or Morocco(25%). Neither of those 2 had to beat anyone of any quality to qualify, and aside from Tunisia slipping past underachieving Nigeria 1-0 it didn't happen in AFCON either. That would make the shoot the moon outcome a group like Qatar, Morocco, Wales. The other key is quite frankly, avoiding Senegal in Pot 3. The other 7 are either the above AFC and CAF teams or they're Euro teams which makes Qatar or a truly weak Pot 4 draw like Saudi Arabia more likely. Senegal is the best Pot 3 team, doesn't keep you from 2 additional Euro teams and makes it very likely you're not getting an AFC team, so it's the land mine. On a similar note, it's very funny to see that those things above are the key to Canada avoiding some really insane groups of death. Running the simulator a few times I see groups like Spain/Croatia/Senegal/Canada or Brazil/Switzerland/Poland/Canada, which would be absolute bloodbaths.
-
Why would CBS keep them from joining sooner, they'd have to pay more in rights and they didn't want to do that right away?
-
It looks like the only other shared-host world cup was 2002, and they put both Japan and South Korea in Pot 1. That was before they made it a pure FIFA rank for all pots, so Pot 2 was all UEFA, Pot 3 was CONMEBOL + AFC, and Pot 4 CONCACAF + CAF
-
The spirit of your point remains, but Poland is in Pot 3 too. I’m less worried about 2 UEFA teams than I am of drawing Poland and/or Wales instead of the more manageable teams in those pots. Outside of Qatar there isn’t a huge difference between drawing France or drawing Brazil. If you made me pick one non-Qatar team for the group I guess it’d be Spain?
-
In more forward facing news, now we can look forward to how terrifying the draw will be on Friday. Fully expecting some nonsense like Brazil, Senegal, Wales
-
Also the US scored more actual goals than any team save Canada(and that 2 goal difference was entirely in the h2h), so it’s not like it was all underlying numbers with no production.
-
Minor League Musings
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
That’s in the minors, not the Dodgers system
