Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Ouch, the 1st place team in group C and 2nd place team in group D will get one day of rest between their final group game and the knockout round. I think that's a Wednesday to Saturday gap, the 30th and the 3rd being the matchdays. Speaking of, good motivation to go for the US to go for the group win, as they get an extra day's rest before the round of 16 compared to the runner up.
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good news, no early games
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Iran has made the last 2 world cups. In 2014 they finished last in their group, scoring only 1 goal across 3 games(in a dead rubber tie with Bosnia). In 2018 they beat Morocco with a 95th minute own goal, got waxed by Bosnia 3-1, and got a 93rd minute penalty to tie Portugal when they needed a win. 6 games, 1-2-3 record, 3 goals for(dead rubber, own goal, PK) and 6 against. I mentioned up thread how they haven't beaten any of the WC-caliber teams in their own confederation in order to qualify. Their confederation has not faired a ton better. The AFC has never had a team win a knockout round game aside from South Korea's 2002 run as the host. In 2018 only 1 of 5 teams advanced from the group(Japan, who won the Fair play tiebreaker on Senegal). In 2014 it was 0 for 4. This doesn't mean Iran is garbage, they're better than teams the US didn't always handle in the Ocho, and they'll play a defense first style that isn't an ideal match for our weaknesses. But I cannot respect a statistical model that puts them on equal footing in quality with the US.
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England made the semis in 2018 and the Euro 2020 finals so I think their current status is pretty deserved. Maybe more to the point, England isn't a great matchup for the US because they use their talent to create defensive solidity first and foremost. In those 2 tournaments England has allowed 10 goals in 14 matches, and the only teams to score more than one were Croatia(needed extra time) and Belgium(low intensity 3rd place game). You can nick a point on them if you too are defensively sound and they aren't having a strong game(they have 23 goals in those 14 but nearly half came v. Panama & Ukraine), but compared to someone like Argentina, Spain, and maybe Belgium, they're tougher to get 3 points from, IMO.
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Also, I'm not going to claim to be an expert on Asian soccer, but I'm highly skeptical of the trumpeting of Iran I've seen in a couple places. There are 5 non-Iran teams in AFC ranked in the Top 51(Qatar is 51). Iran had 16 competitive games in this cycle between qualifying and the Asian cup, and only 3 of those games were against those 5, and in those 3 games they were 0-2-1 with 1 goal scored and 6 against. You can only beat who you play and I don't want to say they're unworthy of their spot, but all 3 other teams should be favored to control the game and win against them.
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With the non-elite UEFA teams I'm of two minds. On one hand, playing a less talented/accomplished team helps because they're definitionally less good. On the other hand, the US under Berhalter has done well against teams that want to try to have the ball, so if it's not some powerhouse then I don't think we might mind playing a marginally better team that isn't going to sit deep. With that in mind I don't think there's an obvious 'yes please them' or 'no not them', doubly so with all the uncertainty surrounding Ukraine. I guess I would slightly prefer not to play Ukraine, both because I think there's likely a lift they'd get from repping their country this year greater than the average team(probably not dissimilar to the hosts), and also because Wales/Scotland would be intense games for England which would help us in our match with those 2.
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Canada avoided E and G, about as good as they could hope for after they missed A
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got dang it
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Costa Rica with a nightmare draw
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Canada really needs to pray for H
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We can only draw the UEFA team by drawing on B, but can get Cameroon or Ghana by drawing on A or B. Feels like the CAF team is statistically most likely
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Canada will be a big decider but E is pretty rough too
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With Poland going to C, that means all of Cameroon, Ecuador, Ghana, and Wales/UEFA will be in play for Pot 4. Gonna want Ghana from that.
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YES
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NO SENEGAL NO SENEGAL NO SENEGAL
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Argentina/Mexico means one of the 3 other UEFA's has to go there, and only 3 of the groups are gonna have 2 UEFA teams after Pot 2, so yeah should be good odds.
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the match v. England is the 2nd match, on black friday
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I think the pot 1 teams are guaranteed the first spot in the group but the other pots could technically be 2-4, so they'll take one random ball from various groups when deciding the subsequent pot teams. That only decides matchup order in a group.
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In terms of pairings it's A/B and E/F for me, I also could get on board with D with a sufficiently light pot 3/4 draw
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They really got the Nigerian guy out here just to say the Pot 1 teams are in spot 1 in their group huh
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I don't particularly want England, but at least now I have the 'horsefeathers around and find out' angle
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Someone did 100k simulations and these were the odds of every opponent:
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General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
I don't really care if(or how) they do it or not, but designating between whether a no change on replay was 'confirmed' or 'stands'/inconclusive would be nice. On the broadcast they often communicate that(though not all the time and not always with 100% certainty), and in the ballpark you never get that info. -
They do have a better than 50% chance of getting one of the AFC teams or the weak CAF teams at least. But yeah, aside from pulling Qatar's group you aren't going to be jazzed no matter what since they're gonna have like Argentina/Switzerland or Spain/Uruguay at best as your starting point.
