Transmogrified Tiger

In 2017, NL Central teams averaged 26 extra innings played, with 7 of those innings happening in the 12th or later. In 2021, NL Central teams averaged 18 extra innings played, with 1 of those innings happening in the 12th or later. So we're bastardizing the competitive environment so teams can play one less extra inning/late extra inning per month. Good times.

You made me curious how crucial SS is for the best teams in the recent past. In the last 4 complete seasons there's been 18 teams with 95+ wins. Their SS were: 2021 Correa: 5.8 fWAR Adames: 3.9 (100 games) Franco: 2.5 (70 games) Seager: 3.7 (100 games) Crawford: 5.5 2019 Adames: 2.9 Swanson: 1.4 Semien: 7.6 Polanco 4.1 Torres (3.6)/Gregorius 0.9 Seager 3.3 Correa 3.1 2018 Baez 5.4 Arcia -0.4 (!) Semien 3.9 Gregorius 4.7 Correa 1.6 Bogaerts 4.9 So, you can technically be a great team and not have top end SS production, and there's several guys on this list who were not established stars/elite prospects when they gave this production, but it's really hard to be elite with makeshift SS. Now there's no reasonable outcome where the 2022 Cubs win 95 games, and as such I don't mind the idea that they give Hoerner a shot to see if he maybe pulls a Semien(or at least can look like the best version of someone like Swanson). But if that answer is no, then a whole lot else has to go right, because to your point there is nothing coming from within for a while.

I also haven't watched any Ligue 1 this year, but numerically it seems like they're just having Messi serve as a string puller more than a finisher. In 3000 minutes last year he had 27 non-penalty goals and 9 assists for Barca. This year in under 1500 minutes he has 2 non-penalty goals and 10 assists. Given that PSG won the title in October they were clearly adjusting workloads for older players like Messi to optimize for Champions League(hence the 1500 mins). Last year he scored 1 non-penalty goal and had 2 assists in 540 CL minutes. This year, 3 non-penalty goals and no assists in 630 CL minutes.

I have zero expectations of Simmons getting to even 3 wins, but setting aside his off-field stuff and the alternatives, I do think he's a smart buy low candidate and his skill set gets maximized with the roster around him. He's always going to be a BABIP reliant hitter, and because of that I don't think it's unreasonable for him to approach his career norms offensively, which combined with his top shelf defense gets you to an average or even slightly above average player. That's not a certainty and I haven't seen much that shows one way or another how predictive his 2021 was at the plate, but for something that isn't super low probability(having a relatively fortunate/normal BABIP year), getting that chance of a league average player who fits the team well for 4 million is a good deal.

I'm being impatient because it'll get answered in a couple weeks, but I really wish I could see how the position player group fits together. If you take it piece by piece I don't see any huge issues. Correa(or Story) would obviously be better, but if that doesn't/can't happen then I can see the logic for Hoerner/Madrigal/Simmons making a decent middle infield grouping. It'd be better if one were left handed, but their skill sets are diverse enough that the whole can be greater than the sum of the parts, and that's the type of thing you need to unexpectedly compete. I also understand running it back with Schwindel and Wisdom on the corners. I mean, they combined for 4.5 fWAR in 615 PA, even with regression there's a decent bar to clear if you're going to upgrade on them, and while their age matters they're team controlled for a while. I also get the volume among the outfielders. Individually you can find plenty of flaws with Frazier, Ortega, Hermosillo, Ramirez, Heyward, or any of the MiLB guys, but rebuilds are accelerated through unexpected jumps in productivity and to do that you need to offer the time to do it. The hangup I have is that while it makes sense to treat each of these individually, in aggregate you have a big lack of investment on top of basically no LH bats. Was not signing a SS until Simmons leaving the door open for a right-sized Correa deal and now that group is set? Were they always planning on a LH 1B/DH bat(Rizzo rumors, Hosmer) to hedge against Schwindel? Are all the non-Happ(and maybe for different reasons, Heyward) outfielders just flyers they plan on tossing if they don't look great in ST and they plan to get a starting OF(Suzuki? One of the QOs now that Correa is out of play?) to reinforce? Or is that the OF group they think they have 2 starters from?

I kinda figured they'd try to limit his innings a bit this year anyways. Hopefully it's nothing structural. He threw 125 IP last year, there's only so much intentional limiting you can do while still trying to get him closer to a full starter's workload, since performance/pitch economy means he's not going 6-7 every outing.

If they extend him, you don't need me to tell you Willson is the catcher into the future. If they trade him, I assume they'll want to add another catcher. That could come in trade(e.g. Campusano in a Hosmer trade), they can afford someone not established in MLB given what Gomes can offer so there's a bit of target flexibility. If they don't extend or trade him, then he'll play out the year and go to FA where they can try some more to keep him or get a pick as compensation. Too far in the future to have a clear idea how they'd approach the position at that point.

Not sure what to make of the 2 teams most linked to Correa both getting defense-first SS this weekend.

Someone refresh my memory, is Hosmer's luxury tax number for the team that acquires him 15 million(4/60 still owed) or 18 million(finishing the 8/144 contract he signed)?

[tweet] [/tweet]

I know he's old and doesn't have huge stuff, but he was good enough last year that I'm surprised he was only able to snag an NRI

https://twitter.com/ChicagoCubs_UK/status/1503018079563010048/photo/1

Jed answering the age old question of 'why don't they make the whole plane out of right handed hitters'

I'm generally with you, especially having double checked and seeing that both DRS and Statcast loved Andrelton defensively last year. However I do understand that there's roster math to contend with that makes us re-evaluate our priors about who has a firm grip on the roster. With so many(seriously, so so many) guys who could be anywhere from 500 PA to not making the opening day roster, it is a little unmooring to have your previous expectation shifted, especially since we just went 3+ months of ignoring/forgetting with the lockout.

I'll preface this by saying that I don't think that signing both Simmons and Correa is a particularly neat fit, and the *best* interpretation would be that Hoyer doesn't think Correa is a lock, and desperately needs to guarantee that there's a true defensive SS on the roster(and doesn't rate Alcantara that way). Having said that, I think you can come up with some reasons that don't shut the door on it even with the facts you're stating. - Correa hasn't played another position, but he has missed his share of time to injury. Insuring against that is worthwhile and can even be a point in selling him("we're gonna keep you in the lineup more often by DHing you every week or two") if that resonates with his mindset. - Simmons hasn't played another position because he's too good at the position he does play. It makes no sense to play an inferior defender there while both are in the lineup, so as a bench option his utility is in playing SS while others slide down the defensive spectrum. Admittedly Correa dilutes this benefit a bit, but if he's open to a handful of games at DH and/or 3B, great. Plus Correa isn't signed. But in any case, the idea that Villar(who I'd hesitate to call a SS or at least a better defender than Hoerner) or Iglesias(who has a worse defensive history than Simmons and hasn't played a different position in 9 years) have played other positions isn't a selling point in their favor. - Simmons isn't exactly in a position to make big demands of his role. He's 32, coming off a sub-replacement season, made himself into a potential locker room distraction, and signed for backup catcher money. Even if the odds of him being the primary SS are only 10%, that's probably more potential playing time than he could bank on from other suitors. - Simmons' skill balance is extra helpful on this team. While he is right handed when he does hit, we've talked before about this team really needing defensive strength to suck up the groundballs that Stroman/Hendricks/Miley are going to induce. You can make the argument that in a limited role he provides more benefit than a Villar or an Iglesias because his strengths are so maximized.

ZiPS sees no difference between Simmons and Alcantara(who can hit LH) with the bat, and UZR sees no difference between them with the glove since the start of the pandemic. That...had better turn out to be incorrect.

Curious what's meant by a corresponding move. Replies to the tweet suggested a trade of Hoerner or Madrigal, but that seems unlikely(though not impossible). No one else is displaced or becomes too expensive and has to go, so my mind goes to moves where seeing Correa sign is enough proof of intent to make the player interested. Contreras extension? Schwarber reunion? An SP? Is there a trade target with an NTC?

While I know everyone can find the roster, given how many of us tuned out last year and then endured the lockout, maybe it's good to refresh our memories Catchers Contreras and Yan Gomes are the MLB options unless Willson gets traded. Miguel Amaya is the only other catcher on the 40 man and he's recovering from TJS, so I wouldn't be surprised if some minor league FA or internal option gets added at some point. Infielders 40 man: Schwindel, Rivas, Madrigal, Hoerner, Alcantara, Wisdom, Bote, Morel Despite my distaste for his long term prospects, Schwindel has a home on the roster, especially with the DH. Rivas(LH good bat/low power journeyman 1B/LF) and Alcantara(defense-first AAAA SS) probably see the roster at some point as a call-up but further additions keep them off the opening day roster. Madrigal(2B/DH) and Hoerner(2B/SS/OF) will play a lot, Bote is a trade candidate and I don't think is healthy to start the year, Wisdom similarly earned a chance to fail at 3B, and Morel is a prospect who will have to prove it at AAA to be a call up over further additions/minor league FA. Everyone has options. Outfielders 40 man: Canario, Deichmann, Frazier, Happ, Hermosillo, Heyward, Ortega, Ramirez, Velazquez Happ will start somewhere unless traded, Frazier will DH and play corner OF as much as his bat allows. Heyward is still here and Ortega(LH corner OF, .823 MLB OPS last year) is a corner option too but unclear how much they value either of them in terms of roster spots and playing time. Hermosillo(great glove, unproven promise with the bat) and Ramirez(bat first EV darling from Cleveland) are RH corner OF options trying to make the roster, Deichmann(LH corner OF with some pedigree) underwhelmed at MLB and AAA after coming over for Chafin, Velazquez(bat first RH corner OF) started killing the ball in AA/AFL last year and if he continues will play his way into MLB at bats, and Canario is in the same category as Morel. Ramirez, Hermosillo, and of course Heyward are not optionable. SP 40 man: Hendricks, Stroman, Miley No explanation necessary here, these guys will start every 5 days unless hurt or Miley falls off a cliff performance wise. Swingmen (could be SP or RP) 40 man: Alzolay, Mills, Steele, Thompson, Espinoza, Abbott Alzolay started making MLB progress and needs to build on that and prove SP durability, Mills you can squint and see a worthwhile 5th starter and also see far worse, Steele & Thompson have stuff to envision a turnaround but odds are against you wanting them to throw 150 IP in 2023(but can be good RP). Abbott is in a similar bucket as Mills but with less proven at MLB. Espinoza has the pedigree to make a leap but he's a complete wild card with as little as he's pitched over the last half decade. Steele and Mills are out of options. RP 40 man: Wick, Heuer, Wieck, Effross, Nance, Rucker, Rodriguez, Roberts Off 40 man: Leeper, Mekkes, Little, Holder, St. John, Gonsalves, Leiter Jr Wick is a late inning reliever, Heuer just had TJS, Wieck is the huge LHP with inconsistency problems, Effross had very good limited MLB results with limited stuff, Nance was a pop-up prospect with big stuff that got figured out at the MLB level, Rucker's stuff has ticked up but he hasn't shown he can get MLB hitters out, Rodriguez is a late inning prospect that needs health and maybe some AAA innings, Roberts has good MiLB numbers but hasn't been called up yet. Wieck is out of options. Leeper was a 2020 draft surprise that wiped out multiple levels last year, Mekkes has decent stuff w/ great deception and is one adjustment from being an MLB contributor, Little is a LHP who looked very good in AA/AAA after converting to relief, Holder was a MLB signing with multiple good seasons that got hurt before he could pitch in Chicago, and St. John(LHRP), Gonsalves(LHRP), and Leiter(SP) are all journeyman NRI's signed before the lockout

We have Jorge at home, he's got all of the defensive liabilities but maybe not the bat and also he's a ginger

It would require a bit more trade capital and you wouldn't net the prospect, but if you trade just for Paddack and then make a deal for say, Dom Smith, I think you get a similar/better current roster and are in a more likely range of what payroll is allowed to be. Further to that point, adding someone like Miller and a Hosmer(or Smith) might be redundant depending on their belief in the other fringe LH bats(Heyward, Ortega or even Deichmann). So while I wouldn't mind 2 more LH hitters at all, you can probably trim one of them if you have to to make it fit since they aren't going to be the difference in a great or terrible 2022 or beyond.

That's kinda how it has to work given the power dynamics, right? One favorable interpretation for the players is that they learned from the owners and started opening cracks in the system that can be expanded, the same way that the way the CBT operates now is far from what it was initially marketed. The bonus pool for pre-arb is a big thing there, and it'll be easier to continue to reform pre-FA comp with that mechanism to be added to/adjusted than it was in November. Service time levers are the other in that vein, though they are more modest in their current benefit. When you layer that on top of significant increases to minimum salary, the CBT, and closing some player unfriendly loopholes(option limits, draft/tanking reforms), I think they can be reasonably happy with the outcome, even if the net result isn't as much as our hopes and dreams given the last 2 CBAs.

Suddenly way more bummed about this than I was 48 hours ago.

If by ruled you mean sucked the joy out of extra innings games, then yes it did! i watched so many non-cubs extra inning games that i wouldn't have. it's instant action/strategy, and 17 inning slogs are overrated. Everyone should like what they like, having said that no you are wrong and should be ashamed. The runner on 2nd solved a problem that did not exist, and solved it in the worst way possible by incentivizing teams to play for 1 run.