Transmogrified Tiger

(sobbing) you can't just take every pitcher who doesn't throw hard and put them in your rotation Jed: (points to Greinke) 4th starter

Brault could make a solid multi-inning reliever, he's always been good the first time through the order and his stuff would hopefully play up. At best, a Brault/Thompson piggy back would be an interesting contrast of styles that could be better than the sum of the parts. As a standalone starter there's gotta be some pitch lab magic to be better than 6th or so in the pecking order.

Conforto is still out there, and there was that stray rumor they were after Freeman. They do have to do *something* with the outfield, right now FG has their starting LF and bench OF as NRIs.

Bote is also lurking at some point, which if nothing else gives another infield body even if he doesn't solve any problems. Miller signed with Texas last night. I have to imagine this is the part where the Hosmer conversation becomes pretty serious if it ever was going to.

I don't know how similar the batted ball/plate discipline peripherals are, but at a surface level I think that's in the ballpark, with the exception that he's coming over 4 years earlier. I don't think that difference can be undersold given that the main difficulty in making the transition is keeping up with velocity, and those coming over at 30+ are already having to deal with diminished ability compared to their previous selves. But overall yeah, the mental model here should be expecting production on the whole equivalent to a Happ or a Schwarber but with some hope that he can surprise and be more. Plus offering that productivity at an age where he can maintain that level for several years, which is uncommon in FA anymore.

So either Philly is going into the luxury tax, or Bryant needs to find a different suitor Maybe the Colorado thing ends up happening after all

One promising thing I saw this morning was that his plate discipline is better than recent imports. https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2021/10/22/seiya-suzuki-a-deep-dive-on-the-next-big-thing-out-of-japan That article also has glowing things to say about his build, athleticism, and bat speed, so hopefully he's more Ohtani than Shogo. He's coming over with more of his prime in front of him than the non-Ohtani guys, which certainly helps on that front too.

Maybe a good time to check on expectations for Suzuki: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/projecting-seiya-suzuki/ That's basically Bryant's line from last year(same OBP & SLG, more AVG/less walks & power) for comparison.

They had all already made tens of millions of dollars and have a lifetime of betting on themselves and having that pay off handsomely, plus likely having agents/peers advising that FA will likely get you a better outcome via a bidding war. Probably not more to it than that.

It isn't prohibitive, but wasn't Schwindel at least as good as Rizzo post trade? The significantly regressed version of Schwindel projected by ZiPS is the same caliber hitter that Rizzo has been the last 2 years. Rizzo is an average 1B now and with his age and injury history has more room to go down than up.

really glad I didn't insult Rizzo like that idiot david who i agree with completely

To your earlier question, this is my preferred path forward if we (stupidly) avoid the shortstop market. Buy some players/prospects via a bad contract, fill out the team with some efficient one year deals and then roll into the season. The odds of the team being more than a 5/6 seed are vanishingly low, it would basically require a Giants-esque ability to successfully pull levers with the 2nd division types on the roster, but the team would be extremely well set up for 2023+ IMO. Yeah there's a path to something like Suzuki, Hosmer, Paddack, Givens without paying much more than you would have for Correa alone(meaning even with suboptimal spending future flexibility is there). That team would lack starpower unless something really unexpected happens(Hoerner/Madrigal becomes Pedroia, Davis supernovas, etc) but could pretty reasonably expect average production throughout the lineup and rotation.

hmmmm for no good reason I'm gonna assume this means the Cubs got Suzuki and are the team lined up to take Hosmer + goodies

Bryan Smith pointed out on Twitter that he leaned on his (less effective) 4 seamer compared to his sinker, so the Cubs might try to do the up in the zone sinker bit with him. He could also get back to throwing more/better sliders, since his usage and effectiveness with it dropped last year(and contributed to the drop in K's). On a 1 year deal and given he has the multi-fastball arsenal, I'm less worried about a velo dip than I am injury. That's a worry for everyone but he had a shoulder and an elbow concern last year, and I wonder if that's part of the drop in slider usage.

We'll try to fix him maybe we can enlist a scientist like in the pitch lab i mean I see what you mean, the right pitch could turn his skin and bones into something beautiful

Feels like there's a pretty straight line for Bryant to the Phillies right now. They're publicly interested and among those teams the best fit in terms of competitiveness and still current interest. Plus he can play with Harper.

Does this strike anyone else as a little weird? They don't play the same position, Correa is widely understood to be more desirable and worthy of a (much) bigger deal, and as far as I know they don't have any of the same suitors. This is guesswork, but what strikes me as more likely is that Correa isn't getting any super long offers(8-10 years) to his liking from the Yankees, Cubs, etc. So the Astros(who IIRC maxed their offer pre-FA at 150 million) re-enter the picture as a more desirable short term option, and Rosenthal just so happens to write a 'what if Correa took a pillow contract' article. So now it's a waiting game to see if that plus the time pressure of any post-Correa contingent moves are enough to get a team to blink. That risk can go both ways though, because there's very little risk if Correa is willing to take an existing ~7 year offer from someone, but if he is seriously considering a 1 year deal or a deal that heavily incentivizes a 1 year opt out, he's gonna want to get into camp ASAP so he can put another contract year season together. Or maybe this is all made up and he signed with the Astros last night but no one cares to leak it, I dunno.

Not a CBA thing but feels like the best home for now, the Atlantic League gets a couple new experimental rules. I love the double hook and I get the idea of creating an incentive for getting to 5 IP to cut down on SP commodification, but that change makes it lose some luster for me. The dropped pitch thing is very interesting, especially since it seems like it applies regardless of count. Gonna have to think about that one a bit.

So if we assume Correa isn't going to happen for whatever reason, what's your preferred positions to fill and targets for them? For me it's: SP: I really want Paddack, like I really really want to make that happen. If it's not him maybe one of the Marlins SP could be shook loose but otherwise it's an off the board thing because the SP options are grim RP: Looking at the list, Mychal Givens would be a big help and I think he'd be interested given the lack of late inning uncertainty and the potential chance to close. I'd also add another LHRP but that can be more of the Chavez/NRI variety since I don't see any terrific candidates OF: Ideally this player would be young enough to not be post-peak immediately, left handed but doesn't need platooning, and can at least be playable in RF. Conforto is all 3 but costs extra comp, Suzuki and Schwarber are 2 of 3, and Myers is only 1 but hits RHP fine and might be free/the path to Paddack Bat: This is probably a 1B type bat but if you find someone with 3B or starting OF versatility, all the better. Hosmer isn't the perfect fit but it does a good enough job if he brings you other fixes for free, I think Dom Smith is a decent buy low option, and I thought the same of Evan White but a RH 1B/DH is a tough sell. Ji-Man Choi might not be too expensive. Rizzo(or Brad Miller) isn't ideal but would also plug this gap.

But winning the game without a hit, via a sacrifice bunt and a sacrifice fly, is much more exciting! I hate the rule, but we saw A LOT of teams faile to convert that ghost runner. It's subtle and lower on the list of reasons, but this is also part of what I don't like about this. It flips the paradigm from needing offensive achievement(scoring a run) to win to needing to avoid failure(not scoring the runner). If you went to one extreme(bases loaded) or the other(runner on 1st and/or start with X outs) you'd at least still make the average outcome one where you needed to do something offensively outside the expected outcome in order to win.

Are you really bastardizing the competitive environment by implementing a rule that affects a handful of innings per year? When those innings decide 5-10% of a team's games then yeah it's gonna be consequential.