Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Norris and Brault make more sense now
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I think most don't have much of a hope anymore, but does this effectively confirm we're out on Correa? Or not really a factor either way? You make room if you get Correa to sign, neither Simmons or Villar are long term or significant pieces you can tell them to get lost. Named After Maddux suggested on Twitter this might portend a Wisdom trade, but I can only see that if they did get Correa and probably not even then. At this point I’m not sure if I expect anything else of significance, the season starts in 22 days and they just aggressively filled out the roster over the last 48 hours. Doesnt mean there can’t be a Correa signing or a Hosmer trade or something like that, but I think these moves are representative of Jed’s optimism that something bigger is coming.
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So from a roster perspective where are we Contreras Gomes Schwindel Madrigal Hoerner Simmons Wisdom Villar Suzuki Happ Frazier OF (Ortega? Heyward?) OF (Hermosillo? Ramirez?) Bote on 60 day IL Hendricks Stroman Miley Mills Brault Norris Steele Wick Robertson Martin Chavez Wieck Thompson (or other optionable RP) Heuer and Alzolay on 60 day IL
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Also the Dodgers have done the relative austerity thing before, they slashed payroll to get under the tax for 2018, 2019, and 2020. We’ll have to see if they decide to do another one of those cycles again with the updated thresholds and penalties.
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And Brault too
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Moran is 1B/DH only and offers no present guarantee of production or potential for better in the future, might as well use Rivas for those PA. As far as Lowrie goes, I generally like him but that window is probably closed. Other teams will have more middle infield PA to offer and he's coming off a fractured wrist which doesn't bode well for him to regain his pre-pandemic form at the plate(a necessity if he's playing any 3B).
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I think the charitable interpretation is they didn't want to upgrade Mills' roster spot with a guy(like Greinke) who isn't much of a bullpen fit when Mills ideally isn't even making the rotation out of ST. With Adbert's injury and Mills seemingly certain of starting a non-trivial number of games until summer, they can swap in Greinke, hopefully cheap enough to not damage any other pursuits, and then Mills can fight for long relief or they can risk waivers with him(and in April there's less chance of a claim).
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(sobbing) you can't just take every pitcher who doesn't throw hard and put them in your rotation Jed: (points to Greinke) 4th starter
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Brault could make a solid multi-inning reliever, he's always been good the first time through the order and his stuff would hopefully play up. At best, a Brault/Thompson piggy back would be an interesting contrast of styles that could be better than the sum of the parts. As a standalone starter there's gotta be some pitch lab magic to be better than 6th or so in the pecking order.
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Conforto is still out there, and there was that stray rumor they were after Freeman. They do have to do *something* with the outfield, right now FG has their starting LF and bench OF as NRIs.
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Bote is also lurking at some point, which if nothing else gives another infield body even if he doesn't solve any problems. Miller signed with Texas last night. I have to imagine this is the part where the Hosmer conversation becomes pretty serious if it ever was going to.
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Whaddaya Seiya Suzuki (Signed with Cubs, 5/$85m)
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I don't know how similar the batted ball/plate discipline peripherals are, but at a surface level I think that's in the ballpark, with the exception that he's coming over 4 years earlier. I don't think that difference can be undersold given that the main difficulty in making the transition is keeping up with velocity, and those coming over at 30+ are already having to deal with diminished ability compared to their previous selves. But overall yeah, the mental model here should be expecting production on the whole equivalent to a Happ or a Schwarber but with some hope that he can surprise and be more. Plus offering that productivity at an age where he can maintain that level for several years, which is uncommon in FA anymore. -
So either Philly is going into the luxury tax, or Bryant needs to find a different suitor Maybe the Colorado thing ends up happening after all
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Whaddaya Seiya Suzuki (Signed with Cubs, 5/$85m)
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
One promising thing I saw this morning was that his plate discipline is better than recent imports. https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2021/10/22/seiya-suzuki-a-deep-dive-on-the-next-big-thing-out-of-japan That article also has glowing things to say about his build, athleticism, and bat speed, so hopefully he's more Ohtani than Shogo. He's coming over with more of his prime in front of him than the non-Ohtani guys, which certainly helps on that front too. -
Whaddaya Seiya Suzuki (Signed with Cubs, 5/$85m)
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
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Whaddaya Seiya Suzuki (Signed with Cubs, 5/$85m)
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Maybe a good time to check on expectations for Suzuki: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/projecting-seiya-suzuki/ That's basically Bryant's line from last year(same OBP & SLG, more AVG/less walks & power) for comparison. -
They had all already made tens of millions of dollars and have a lifetime of betting on themselves and having that pay off handsomely, plus likely having agents/peers advising that FA will likely get you a better outcome via a bidding war. Probably not more to it than that.
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It isn't prohibitive, but wasn't Schwindel at least as good as Rizzo post trade? The significantly regressed version of Schwindel projected by ZiPS is the same caliber hitter that Rizzo has been the last 2 years. Rizzo is an average 1B now and with his age and injury history has more room to go down than up.
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really glad I didn't insult Rizzo like that idiot david who i agree with completely
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To your earlier question, this is my preferred path forward if we (stupidly) avoid the shortstop market. Buy some players/prospects via a bad contract, fill out the team with some efficient one year deals and then roll into the season. The odds of the team being more than a 5/6 seed are vanishingly low, it would basically require a Giants-esque ability to successfully pull levers with the 2nd division types on the roster, but the team would be extremely well set up for 2023+ IMO. Yeah there's a path to something like Suzuki, Hosmer, Paddack, Givens without paying much more than you would have for Correa alone(meaning even with suboptimal spending future flexibility is there). That team would lack starpower unless something really unexpected happens(Hoerner/Madrigal becomes Pedroia, Davis supernovas, etc) but could pretty reasonably expect average production throughout the lineup and rotation.
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hmmmm for no good reason I'm gonna assume this means the Cubs got Suzuki and are the team lined up to take Hosmer + goodies
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Cubs Sign Chris Martin 1/2.5
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Bryan Smith pointed out on Twitter that he leaned on his (less effective) 4 seamer compared to his sinker, so the Cubs might try to do the up in the zone sinker bit with him. He could also get back to throwing more/better sliders, since his usage and effectiveness with it dropped last year(and contributed to the drop in K's). On a 1 year deal and given he has the multi-fastball arsenal, I'm less worried about a velo dip than I am injury. That's a worry for everyone but he had a shoulder and an elbow concern last year, and I wonder if that's part of the drop in slider usage. -
Cubs Sign Chris Martin 1/2.5
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
We'll try to fix him maybe we can enlist a scientist like in the pitch lab i mean I see what you mean, the right pitch could turn his skin and bones into something beautiful -
