Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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yeah Children's Mercy is close enough for a day trip so I'm strongly considering it
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-27-22
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
PCA's trajectory is gonna start intersecting with Caissie's really soon I think. PCA is a high enough value prospect that if he needs to be promoted he's gonna get promoted, but that creates a knock on decision given the South Bend outfield. Canario and Pinango are significant enough prospects in their own right to need everyday playing time, and Nwogu could use some reps too, while none of them are ideal promotion candidates themselves. That leaves Caissie, who is completely lost right now(5 for 45 w/ 1 2B and 3/23 BB/K) and hasn't yet shown any signs of turning a corner. We know from some recent experience(Howard) that the front office doesn't like admitting defeat on aggressive assignments, but we're already seeing this come to a head without PCA since Caissie hasn't played the last 2 games(and I haven't seen any sign of an injury). We can't be far from PCA and Caissie swapping teams, right? -
Agreed, I missed the first half with my indoor game but was really not happy with the first penalty call, then completely shocked they upheld the second so I think the end result was fair with the balance of play and big calls. Next wednesday is gonna be an insane atmosphere, I've been at Lumen field for Sounders games when it's around 40k, I can barely imagine what that's like for the big games they get 60k+.
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I am curious about how that progresses, because I think there's a lot of potential influences and I'm not sure which one is the dominant factor yet. The ball is clearly suppressing power in the early going on top of it being April after an abbreviated spring, which all could play a part and potentially change as the season continues. The personnel is definitely different, and for as much as I'm optimistic on the overall value of Hoerner and Madrigal, they aren't going to start putting a bunch of balls in the seats even on a hot streak. Then there's some guys hitting for less power than they have in the past(Happ, Villar, Ortega, Frazier, Schwindel), which could be those environmental factors, could be representative of a coaching overcorrection, or could be an individual competence issue.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-26-22
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Davis striking out 50% more while also cutting his IsoP in half from his short Iowa stint last year(which now have about an equal number of PA) is easily the most depressing thing about the early prospect season so far. Really hoping this is some early season weirdness(Davis has never played pro games in April, oddly enough), because him leading the line for the system not only solves some short term problems but makes the inevitable fizzles out at the lower levels easier to swallow. -
Also, if we're talking about the bigger picture with roster construction or forward-facing expectations, I want to reinforce that 17 games just doesn't mean much, especially since the team isn't at some extreme like being 29th in runs or 2nd in IsoP, whatever. As a founding member of the "Schwindel is LaHair with a goofier smile" brigade, I've had to intentionally avoid making much in the way of declarations of his uselessness, because we're talking about less than 3 weeks of games, and coming off a lockout and abbreviated spring training. There isn't a magic line where all of a sudden with one more game everything becomes meaningful, but especially at the macro level I think you'd need some more extreme results(e.g. the Reds) before you claim the season thus far is the new norm, otherwise it's the type of conversation that's best waiting til Memorial day. This applies to the good stuff(Seiya, Thompson, the veteran relievers) too.
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They've also scored 4+ runs in 10/17 games, and have yet to be shut out. Consistency we would have absolutely killed for essentially any year post 2016. 7-10 with ten games against the pirates and Rockies Disappointing for sure, even if the other 7 were quite strong opponents. If I’m looking for reasons explaining that disappointment, I’d go to SP(26th in starter ERA), randomness(everyone has multiple 7-10 spells in a season), and luck(2-5 in 1 run games) before I got to the offense or it’s specific slappiness.
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The Cubs even with their funk in the last few days are 17th in HR and 13th in IsoP, to say nothing of being 5th in runs and 3rd in wRC+. It's less than 20 games so even if they were crushing HR left and right it wouldn't be predictive, and there's several lineup/roster spots I'd like to change the players and/or usage, but they aren't at the other end of the spectrum. It just feels that way because offense and HR are down due to weather, ball, and expanded rosters. Case in point, Schwarber, Baez, Bryant, and Correa are all hitting worse than Heyward at the moment.
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using multiple LHRP after a LH starter feels a bit like mockery
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cackling at that cut to Stroman's reaction
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He has twice in this game given up a run on 2 singles, so make of that what you will
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the travis demeritte game
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sir Mr. Suzuki will tell you when a strike has been thrown
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Madrigal forced to swing at ball 5
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The uncensored version is next level
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They've been so snakebitten by injuries in the early going that I imagine whoever the fall guy is would have a long leash unless things got really dire(e.g. 10+ games out by memorial day). I tend to think that TLR is the one far less safe than Hahn, but I wouldn't put much money on the most logical/rational operational processes coming from Reinsdorf's brain trust.
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Still not a big enough sample to say anything definitively, but there's some encouraging signs from Hoerner's defense. All of DRS, Statcast, and UZR have him playing at an elite level in this year's trivial sample at SS, but what's nice is how well that fits into his broader(but still limited) track record. Hoerner now has 410 innings (45 nine inning games worth) at SS, with a +4 UZR/150 and +8 RAA (Statcast). That also fits with his 468 innings at 2B, where he has a +7 UZR/150 and +11 RAA. If he's a true plus defensive SS then that takes a nice bit of pressure off his bat(and probably transfers it right to Madrigal's bat), which is reflected in him playing at around a 4 win pace this year without having gotten hot at the plate yet.
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Villar might lead the league in performances that infuriate the fans of both teams
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I think if you game it out the only way this makes a material difference is if there's a low likelihood of the game being played this evening. Everyone seems to agree that weather was gonna keep the game from being played this afternoon, and if you can't make it in the evening*, then you actually have better odds since you have a small window to offload the tickets instead of showing up to a rain delay and leaving before things get going. If there's a low chance of playing the game then you do have less of a window compared to just postponing. *I would guess a Friday afternoon game probably has the least possible folks who can make the afternoon but not the evening too, compared to other day/start times
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-21-22
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Herz now at 11 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 14/2 K/BB, 0 HR for the season, that'll do edit - his combined High-A line: 27 IP, 12 H, 7 R, 40/8 BB, 1 HR -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-20-22
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
gonna leave this thread for good now (it'll take a minute, what with my bad back and knees and all) -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-21-22
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Unless Miley or Alzolay have a setback, my guess is there needs to be an injury, a non-Hendricks/Stroman starter needs to be completely unplayable, or Kilian needs to go supernova. Him pitching pretty well and Steele being below average doesn't feel worth bringing him up for a couple weeks if e.g. Alzolay is rehabbing and about to take those starts. -
Cubs Trade Jesse Chavez for Sean Newcomb
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
What an excellent move. Newcomb was very good as a reliever in 2019 when he first moved to the pen, including having basically no platoon split. A couple ugly starts in the shortened season and then he hasn't been able to throw strikes since. Seems far from a lost cause, and while he has been with multiple organizations, having been with ATL for 6 years it feels similar to having gotten a one-org guy(a personal favorite in trade targets) given how much pitching dev has changed in that time. Chavez in the best case isn't a late inning reliever, isn't someone for next year, and isn't gonna bring someone with better odds of being a MLB contributor even if he was lights out from now til July. Good good stuff. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-20-22
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
he's TWENTY SIX !?!? -
2022 Other Games Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to itisallpartoftheplan's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
My friend was supposed to be at that game, he was flying in for work, they moved up the game time 3 hours and didn't notify anyone, so he showed up to park and (along with several other cars) got told it was the 8th inning.
