Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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more unteachable veteran savvy -
Suzuki not getting around on 96 and then putting good contact on 96 in the same spot a couple pitches later is very, very nice to see
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oh man I gasped when I saw the missed location on that 2-0 fastball to Willson, that's the one
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10 innings into Madrigal's Cub tenure and I'm already annoyed at the amount of armpit strike calls he has to endure
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-9-22
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Kilian carving people up and now Davis with a HR, this is the stuff I was promised -
I guess yesterday’s lineup was more about getting a couple guys some early season game action? Woodruff is still starting AFAIK so there’s no other reason to shake it up
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2022 Other Games Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to itisallpartoftheplan's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
Hendriks getting rocked and the White Sox outfield defense turning a double and a flyout into a triple and a hit is probably not a great omen -
Minor League Musings
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
They do have at least a handful of half-interesting guys who are one yet-unmade adjustment from being on a decent MLB trajectory. Morel is the obvious one, and Strumpf and Ball have the pedigree to change their trajectory too. But largely I'm with Bertz, I saw this tweet and thought 'oh, outside of Myrtle Beach there's like a max of 2.5 interesting players per lineup' -
Rizzo's extension was announced around Mother's Day 2013, at the time his MLB track record was a disastrous 50 games for San Diego, a solid half season with the Cubs(368 PA, .349 wOBA, 1.6 fWAR), and a good start to that 2013 campaign(a slug-heavy .366 wOBA in April). As David alluded to, he finished 2013 with a full season just below average(690 PA, .325 wOBA, 1.8 fWAR), and it wasn't until the next year that he took off, with 4 straight seasons of at least 4 wins. While plenty of people had optimism for Rizzo and very few people thought his extension was a terrible deal, it's tough for me to see it as the club taking advantage of him. You don't have to look much further than say, Josh Bell to see how this type of thing doesn't always turn good based on a single campaign. Plus, Rizzo was not too far removed from a cancer scare, which obviously played into his thinking and would have been another obstacle to clear if it had recurred.
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The sequence of relievers would imply that it's Robertson, at least today
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we didn't do a bold predictions thread but if we did I would've said Frazier is gonna make the all-star team he is gonna rake
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that's gotta be better Happ
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it's a little nitpicky since it's not an *easy* play, but Schwindel's throw raised the difficulty on that DP turn. Part of that was his placement, and the other part is him being right handed and what that means for the natural throwing motion/trajectory
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you just can't teach that veteran savvy
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a good and perfect boy i say
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Frank if you're gonna turn back into LaHair I appreciate you having the dignity to do it all at once so we don't waste more time on it
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many people are saying the Cubs will never lose again
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Suzuki is a good and perfect boy
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very likely to be famous last words but it's weird that I'm now comforted that it's Cain coming up in a situation like this
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almost the reverse, he only saw 1 actual strike in that at bat
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Frank please do not batflip in frustration, that is very mean for us watching at home
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He had like a .900+ OPS against RHP last year so he's as good a bet as any in that situation until he proves otherwise
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I do wonder if their internal defensive modeling thinks much higher of Heyward than public metrics. Public metrics and the eye test think Ortega and Happ are below average in CF, so I can see a path to thinking Heyward is a 10 run improvement defensively that mitigates a fair amount of the offensive gap. Maybe Hermosillo is someone who maybe challenges in that regard, but he's not exactly a sure thing with the bat against RHP either. A cost/benefit analysis would suggest that the marginal improvement in offense wouldn't mitigate the loss in defense. I can sort of buy that, but 10 runs seem like a lot to me. It sounds a lot when framed this way, but if you think of it as above average v. below average it feels more plausible. For example, both UZR and Statcast show Heyward as a +4-5 CF, Happ is between -2 and -5, and Ortega is between -3 and -9. Especially when you add in that team defensive models are supposed to be more robust, if you take those as a starting point you don't have to tweak them a ton to get to a 10 run gap between Heyward and the alternatives.
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Yeah, Heyward is probably going to get the Neifi treatment this year, but a matchup like Burnes is really hard to parse out who the right choice is. I'd have gone with Frazier though knowing what we know I do wonder if their internal defensive modeling thinks much higher of Heyward than public metrics. Public metrics and the eye test think Ortega and Happ are below average in CF, so I can see a path to thinking Heyward is a 10 run improvement defensively that mitigates a fair amount of the offensive gap. Maybe Hermosillo is someone who maybe challenges in that regard, but he's not exactly a sure thing with the bat against RHP either.
