Transmogrified Tiger

I agree that PCA's new norm is that with a K rate north of 20% instead of the above average rate he had at Myrtle Beach. Where I think the author's intent is more accurate is that even though the K rate has ebbed and flowed(and there's other factors like his hand injury and future's game/All-star layoffs that probably factor in), it's become detached from other signs of success and failure. By that I mean that to start out with pre-injury, PCA not only was striking out more, but he wasn't hitting or walking either. As the weeks have gone on, both of those things have improved, so while the nominal K rate for a week in July may look similar to his first week, it represents less in terms of how troublesome it is given the rest of the profile and what it portends(e.g. getting overwhelmed vs. selling out for power vs. having exploitable zones vs. K's as a product of patience, etc)

Mervis also added a triple (!) off a lefty (!!), all of his Iowa hits are for extra bases

It is almost certainly not that, but those two(a 50 and a 45, one playing well the other okay, both hitters) would be at the least unsurprising as the return in a Happ trade.

Boy when Canario gets hot he does not mess around, this is a Soriano-level heater Elsewhere at Tennessee, Riley Thompson's on a good run. His last 5 outings: 12.2 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 12/6 K/BB, 1 HR

should the cubs be buyers at the deadline? my column:

It's definitely the former, and might also be the latter, I've seen commentary that part of the reason they'd even consider asking teams to take Corbin is to make the financials more appealing to new ownership. But I don't know that anyone is paying hundreds of millions more for the team because Corbin is owed a bunch for 2 years(especially since without Soto the future payrolls are only Strasburg/Corbon/nobody), so I think it's more a matter of giving certainty to the Soto situation one way or another for the incoming ownership group.

One of the things I think is increasingly important as finding a lefty bat for next year. When you look at the existing options who could play a significant role in 2023-2024, it's so RHH heavy. Hoerner, Morel, Suzuki, Wisdom, Davis, Amaya, Frazier, Velazquez, Canario, Slaughter. The other side of the ledger is Happ(maybe gone in a week), Ortega(31 y/o platoon OF w/ sub .700 OPS), and Mervis(zero pedigree, just got to AAA). Position doesn't even matter a ton thanks to existing holes and the positional flexibility of players like Morel and Wisdom. I tried to put together a spectrum of potential deadline additions that might be able to help with that imbalance and fill lineup holes in the immediate future. This ended up being a long list so I spoilered chunks for legibility. 50 FV+ options - The Willson/Happ headliner tier 40+ and 45 FV options - The 1:1 Robertson trade tier 40 FV and below - possibly gettable for Givens/Martin/Smyly

I think at a minimum you can use him(and a bit later, Alzolay) in a similar manner as they used Thompson prior to him joining the rotation. As you mention there won't be a shortage of innings to soak up.

I don't think it's a matter of the Yankees feeling duped(Rizzo played well enough to get extended after all), but more that if the Yankees are using Dominguez or any significant prospect capital to get a multi-year OF solution, they're probably going to be more motivated to go after Soto until he is dealt or that door closes very close to the deadline.

CB Bucknor blew a strike 3 call badly enough on Wisdom that I'm pretty sure he knew it, let Wisdom argue and gave Ross a bunch of leash before ejecting him Also I'm pretty sure Morel conned him into an HBP earlier in the game

we also somehow haven't mentioned that Alcantara is 4 for 4 with a 3B and BB

Fastballs up in the zone are supposed to be a vulnerable spot for his swing too, so that's very fun

Iowa has 10 runs and somehow Mervis and Frazier are 1 for 8, boo The pitching though, Killian goes 5 scoreless, 1 H, 8/1 K/BB, Newcomb with a K in a perfect inning (he might not be done) edit: eventful but not damaging 2nd IP for Newcomb: BB, WP, K, IF single (runner out at home), IF single, Flyout

Campusano, Wood/Hassell, and Merrill/Susana for Contreras + Happ would be light on 2023 contributions for deals involving both, but would still be awfully tempting as a framework. Maybe take on Myers contract or send a 40 man crunch guy to SD, take a chance on Morejon, etc.

Removing the HR he hit against a RH position player last night, Velazquez is hitting .200/.243/.257 against RHP, a line worse than Heyward against them. He was hitting .211/.290/.415 w/ a 36% K rate at AAA against all pitchers. He shouldn't be getting any starts against RHP, both to actually get the best out of the team, and for Velazquez's own development since he shouldn't be up to begin with.

I've spent entirely too much time looking at those teams and prospect lists too. Curry in a Robertson deal and Waldichuk in a Happ deal are both things I came back to multiple times. I like Wallner and Steer too. A couple that seem like potential sweet spot acquisitions to me that weren't on the list: LAD - Landon Knack (SP) - A 45 FV SP with excellent velocity but modest secondaries/command. K%-BB% over 20% and HR rates low enough to drive a solid FIP in AA even though he's been hittable. Just outside the FG Dodgers Top 10 and one of a couple pitchers in a similar role/level/pedigree cluster so likely available. CLE - Bryan Lavastida/Bo Naylor © - The Indians have a catching need and 2 prospects at AAA who are both promising. Bo is Josh's brother and an athletic if unrefined receiver and was a 50 FV last year before slumping with the bat (this year 40+ FV), but has turned it around in a huge way with a .271/.427/.471 AA line and .308/.459/.554 in 20 AAA games, both with near 1:1 BB/K. Lavastida (45+FV) converted to C after the draft and profiles as a slightly better all around defender, but hasn't translated his AA success(.368 wOBA) to AAA quite yet(.225/.320/.372 but w/ solid BB and K rates). I have no idea how they see their options here and Naylor's bat has blown up so much that it would play as a DH(so they don't *have* to get rid of one), but especially with the Hawkins connection I'd be fascinated to see if they could peel one away.

It has way more autonomy than the NBA for a few reasons. As a sport, an individual player or even couple of players are way less essential to a championship roster, and teams have much more equal access to those players. The means for that equal access(minor leagues, less certainty in drafted players, pre-FA salary limits) are not without their downsides, but if the Pacers just decide "we're gonna pay the luxury tax" they need a lot of external (and frankly, unlikely) things to happen between that decision and having a title contender. And even if it were true, that reduces fandom to ownership olympics compared with needing a consistently competent organization like is necessary on the MLB side to sustain success through the minors and general player development. The NBA's salary structure plays a big role in this because players are choosing from very equivalent offers, especially on the high end with the Hardens/Durants of the world and it has the most impact on title hopes. Playing in a preferred city or with your buddies becomes a much bigger deal when teams can't really differentiate on money.

This kinda makes the point. As a fan of a team you have to hope to be extremely fortunate with a draft pick, or you're at the whims of whatever a top player feels like doing for his next gig, sometimes both. For me at least it's difficult to be invested in a team that has so little autonomy relative to other sports in its ability to create a championship roster.

I think the time has come and gone for Hosmer to make sense. He's a barely above replacement level 1B and I don't feel like the prospect capital you get by taking on his 3/40 is more useful to the organization than spending that 3/40 on the roster or in a different way.

Eh, going into the playoffs this year there were like 8-9 teams you could’ve made a legitimate case for winning it. I think this has gotten a bit better, but a team with a top 3-5 player in the league has won like 12 of the last 15 finals. Sometimes that star is a bit emergent(like Kawhi with Toronto), but that top heaviness compared with the extreme player power in the league makes it a much more powerless existence for most NBA teams compared to other sports. At least in the Bulls case they're more attractive a literal destination than many others so they can break the cycle.

Fangraphs revived an old Jeff Sullivan bit, the worst swings of the season so far: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-worst-swings-of-the-first-half-of-the-season/ Number 1 is Effross humiliating Jorge Alfaro

Missed this from the other thread mention, but the same sentiment applies. Smith would basically be a waiver claim in acquisition cost, and if he shows signs of being fixed then you have a decent 1B/DH/LF option that hits left handed(which is sorely needed) on a roster that doesn't have a ton of promising 1B options. If he's still terrible you non-tender him and all you've lost were those at bats, which they don't have anyone more worthwhile to give at the MLB level anyway.

Why would they want a 28 YO arb eligible 1B in any deal is what I’m wondering. Smith wouldn’t have much Value in a trade for prospects if they managed to turn him around. The Cubs would be stuck with an arb eligible albatross who is costing draft position and a shot at the #1 farm The team has a huge hole at 1B(never mind DH or LH hitting in general) and the best internal hopes at the moment are two guys(Mervis and Slaughter) with no pedigree who were both probably closer to being released than they were to Wrigley 3 months ago. If you think you can fix Smith, you have a potential short term solution at the position(he's under control thru 2024), and if he doesn't he shouldn't have cost you anything you'd miss and you can non-tender him. They aren't going to stop trying to find MLB solutions because they might win a couple games and sink a little in the draft lottery, to do so would be terrible process.

BN summarizing a possibility Keith Law floated on his podcast, that Willson could go to San Francisco for Bart (and change): https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/07/20/could-the-cubs-try-to-target-mlb-ready-talent-over-prospects-in-a-willson-contreras-trade/ That's a fit I've wondered a bit about, but assumed it wasn't practical kinda like Alvarez for NY. Bart's K's are a definite concern, but as the link notes it is something the Cubs have had some organizational success in improving. Given the rest of the tools it's not hard to see a slight tweak essentially turning him into Mike Zunino.