Transmogrified Tiger

I still watch games all the time, but I understand the sentiment and I know several people who used to follow the Cubs very closely and have basically stopped watching them entirely over the past few years. There is risk involved in operating the team like an analytical sports simulation, which can be contradictory to maintaining a fan base over the long term. There is a point where the "smart" business move might not be the best thing for the long term health of the franchise. Do you really want to sever one of the last links to the 2016 championship team (Contreras), while creating yet another giant hole to fill? How can you expect to build a loyal fan base if the organization fails to reciprocate that loyalty to both the fans and players? Maybe this new rebuild works and we have another 3-4 year playoff run, but then what? Then it's time to trade Davis, PCA, Amaya, etc. and start over again. We can't expect the team to re-sign everyone all the time, but there are times when re-signing a player might be the right thing to do even though the computer says otherwise. Contreras is the exact type of player that the team should be looking to keep around and bridge the gap to the proverbial "next great Cubs team", yet somehow that idea has never seriously been entertained. It's one thing to rebuild and be smart about spending money, but this team shouldn't be operating like the Tampa Bay Rays. To play devils advocate: If the team wins, the fans will be there. We're now 6 years removed from the WS team. It sucks that it played out this way but, as a comparison, here are key members of the 2016 team that were on the roster in 2014: Rizzo (breakout season in 2014) Baez (hit .169, spent most of 2015 in the minors) Coghlan (traded from Oakland in 2016) Arrieta (breakout 2014) Hendricks (called up down the stretch, pitched great) Rondon Strop Grimm That's 8 guys (and stretching it a lot on Coghlan and Grimm) that were on the team just 2 years before the 2016 team. This is a bad team right now, it's been a bad team for a whole calendar year. Yes, a lot of that is self inflicted, which is garbage, but the fans (which are already showing up) will be selling the place out as soon as the record flips, regardless of the players on the field. Agreed, success (both individual and team) is always going to be the biggest driver. No one bemoaned losing the connection to the success of 2016 when Almora or Russell was kicked to the curb, or got contemplative about the business of baseball when they moved on from Quintana or Chatwood. People are dying to not look at Heyward in a Cubs uni anymore, it's always gonna come down to the belief that they can continue to be successful and play a part in the team continuing to be successful. That said, I think the front office(and I say front office because I believe the org's current state is about 90% front office driven and 10% ownership) really could stand to do what it takes to avoid this circumstance with *all* of the next round of players. Reward Nico with an extension that buys out some FA years, plant a flag on Morel with a longer term deal, or show faith in Steele or Thompson with guaranteed money. There's value in not being on the 6 year treadmill with every young player who lands at your feet, and while there is risk involved(e.g. no one is putting Bote's name on the roster in pen), it's a useful and ultimately small thing they can do to signal their intent even if the bigger statements of intent like large FA deals are (sometimes justifiably) not the best choice for the moment.

Szymborski has an article with a handful of proposed trades he dreamed up: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-make-some-deadline-trades/ One is Contreras to the Mets for Vientos straight up. The other is Happ to the White Sox for Jared Kelley, Oscar Colas, and Norge Vera. The former feels light but I would at least understand the upside and appeal. The latter is silliness.

Yep, my only concern is the Astros system is so bad there might be some more hesitation around using their best prospect for a rental, or similarly, trading their futures game rep a week after the fact.

Currently going back and forth on if trading for Happ in these circumstances is very much not a Rays move or a very on brand Rays move. On one hand, they aren't bidding war winners in any sense of the word, and they could try to limp along with their current team or some potential reinforcements(Ramirez when he gets healthy, maybe Mastrubuoni or another try w/ Brujan). On the other hand, they've got a big 40 man crunch, limited LHH OF options in the short term without some reversal of fortune(J Lowe, Phillips), and if they are spending to improve for the stretch run and help the 40 man pressure they'll probably appreciate the target having additional team control.

In that sense, maybe Josh Bell too, though the risk profile on both ends is different. In terms of who might be another Stroman, the potential FA that cannot get a QO due to receiving it before are Correa(pending opt out), Syndergaard, Verlander(pending opt out), and (lol) Greinke.

Cross-posting here because I wonder what this does for some pending FA's and potential extension negotiations. If Musgrove was close with SD, knowing his market just dropped by 8 figures has to push him over the edge, right? And in the more important case of Willson, is the gap between his goals and an extension offer now close enough to re-engage? Isn't this good for us? Cubs can sign the #1 kid in the IFA that they've been linked to. With a draft, that wouldn't have been possible. It is good for that, and might be good for the immediate future if the FO is more inclined to be aggressive on QO's due to various circumstances(stocked farm after 2 years of selling, wanting to move towards playoff contention soon). It is bad in that the front office has to make harder tradeoffs in free agency between adding talent now and maintaining a consistent pipeline for the years to come.

Cross-posting here because I wonder what this does for some pending FA's and potential extension negotiations. If Musgrove was close with SD, knowing his market just dropped by 8 figures has to push him over the edge, right? And in the more important case of Willson, is the gap between his goals and an extension offer now close enough to re-engage?

I agree that PCA's new norm is that with a K rate north of 20% instead of the above average rate he had at Myrtle Beach. Where I think the author's intent is more accurate is that even though the K rate has ebbed and flowed(and there's other factors like his hand injury and future's game/All-star layoffs that probably factor in), it's become detached from other signs of success and failure. By that I mean that to start out with pre-injury, PCA not only was striking out more, but he wasn't hitting or walking either. As the weeks have gone on, both of those things have improved, so while the nominal K rate for a week in July may look similar to his first week, it represents less in terms of how troublesome it is given the rest of the profile and what it portends(e.g. getting overwhelmed vs. selling out for power vs. having exploitable zones vs. K's as a product of patience, etc)

Mervis also added a triple (!) off a lefty (!!), all of his Iowa hits are for extra bases

It is almost certainly not that, but those two(a 50 and a 45, one playing well the other okay, both hitters) would be at the least unsurprising as the return in a Happ trade.

Boy when Canario gets hot he does not mess around, this is a Soriano-level heater Elsewhere at Tennessee, Riley Thompson's on a good run. His last 5 outings: 12.2 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 12/6 K/BB, 1 HR

should the cubs be buyers at the deadline? my column:

It's definitely the former, and might also be the latter, I've seen commentary that part of the reason they'd even consider asking teams to take Corbin is to make the financials more appealing to new ownership. But I don't know that anyone is paying hundreds of millions more for the team because Corbin is owed a bunch for 2 years(especially since without Soto the future payrolls are only Strasburg/Corbon/nobody), so I think it's more a matter of giving certainty to the Soto situation one way or another for the incoming ownership group.

One of the things I think is increasingly important as finding a lefty bat for next year. When you look at the existing options who could play a significant role in 2023-2024, it's so RHH heavy. Hoerner, Morel, Suzuki, Wisdom, Davis, Amaya, Frazier, Velazquez, Canario, Slaughter. The other side of the ledger is Happ(maybe gone in a week), Ortega(31 y/o platoon OF w/ sub .700 OPS), and Mervis(zero pedigree, just got to AAA). Position doesn't even matter a ton thanks to existing holes and the positional flexibility of players like Morel and Wisdom. I tried to put together a spectrum of potential deadline additions that might be able to help with that imbalance and fill lineup holes in the immediate future. This ended up being a long list so I spoilered chunks for legibility. 50 FV+ options - The Willson/Happ headliner tier 40+ and 45 FV options - The 1:1 Robertson trade tier 40 FV and below - possibly gettable for Givens/Martin/Smyly

I think at a minimum you can use him(and a bit later, Alzolay) in a similar manner as they used Thompson prior to him joining the rotation. As you mention there won't be a shortage of innings to soak up.

I don't think it's a matter of the Yankees feeling duped(Rizzo played well enough to get extended after all), but more that if the Yankees are using Dominguez or any significant prospect capital to get a multi-year OF solution, they're probably going to be more motivated to go after Soto until he is dealt or that door closes very close to the deadline.

CB Bucknor blew a strike 3 call badly enough on Wisdom that I'm pretty sure he knew it, let Wisdom argue and gave Ross a bunch of leash before ejecting him Also I'm pretty sure Morel conned him into an HBP earlier in the game

we also somehow haven't mentioned that Alcantara is 4 for 4 with a 3B and BB

Fastballs up in the zone are supposed to be a vulnerable spot for his swing too, so that's very fun

Iowa has 10 runs and somehow Mervis and Frazier are 1 for 8, boo The pitching though, Killian goes 5 scoreless, 1 H, 8/1 K/BB, Newcomb with a K in a perfect inning (he might not be done) edit: eventful but not damaging 2nd IP for Newcomb: BB, WP, K, IF single (runner out at home), IF single, Flyout

Campusano, Wood/Hassell, and Merrill/Susana for Contreras + Happ would be light on 2023 contributions for deals involving both, but would still be awfully tempting as a framework. Maybe take on Myers contract or send a 40 man crunch guy to SD, take a chance on Morejon, etc.

Removing the HR he hit against a RH position player last night, Velazquez is hitting .200/.243/.257 against RHP, a line worse than Heyward against them. He was hitting .211/.290/.415 w/ a 36% K rate at AAA against all pitchers. He shouldn't be getting any starts against RHP, both to actually get the best out of the team, and for Velazquez's own development since he shouldn't be up to begin with.

I've spent entirely too much time looking at those teams and prospect lists too. Curry in a Robertson deal and Waldichuk in a Happ deal are both things I came back to multiple times. I like Wallner and Steer too. A couple that seem like potential sweet spot acquisitions to me that weren't on the list: LAD - Landon Knack (SP) - A 45 FV SP with excellent velocity but modest secondaries/command. K%-BB% over 20% and HR rates low enough to drive a solid FIP in AA even though he's been hittable. Just outside the FG Dodgers Top 10 and one of a couple pitchers in a similar role/level/pedigree cluster so likely available. CLE - Bryan Lavastida/Bo Naylor © - The Indians have a catching need and 2 prospects at AAA who are both promising. Bo is Josh's brother and an athletic if unrefined receiver and was a 50 FV last year before slumping with the bat (this year 40+ FV), but has turned it around in a huge way with a .271/.427/.471 AA line and .308/.459/.554 in 20 AAA games, both with near 1:1 BB/K. Lavastida (45+FV) converted to C after the draft and profiles as a slightly better all around defender, but hasn't translated his AA success(.368 wOBA) to AAA quite yet(.225/.320/.372 but w/ solid BB and K rates). I have no idea how they see their options here and Naylor's bat has blown up so much that it would play as a DH(so they don't *have* to get rid of one), but especially with the Hawkins connection I'd be fascinated to see if they could peel one away.

It has way more autonomy than the NBA for a few reasons. As a sport, an individual player or even couple of players are way less essential to a championship roster, and teams have much more equal access to those players. The means for that equal access(minor leagues, less certainty in drafted players, pre-FA salary limits) are not without their downsides, but if the Pacers just decide "we're gonna pay the luxury tax" they need a lot of external (and frankly, unlikely) things to happen between that decision and having a title contender. And even if it were true, that reduces fandom to ownership olympics compared with needing a consistently competent organization like is necessary on the MLB side to sustain success through the minors and general player development. The NBA's salary structure plays a big role in this because players are choosing from very equivalent offers, especially on the high end with the Hardens/Durants of the world and it has the most impact on title hopes. Playing in a preferred city or with your buddies becomes a much bigger deal when teams can't really differentiate on money.