Transmogrified Tiger

I was a little skeptical of the fit for the Padres with as well as Profar and Mazara have been playing. But Profar nearly broke his neck last night and will be out for an indeterminate period, and they are giving most of their DH playing time to Voit already, so there's possibly a decent window here. If you sent Happ(with his 2022 tab paid for) and took on Myers' money, I wonder how close that gets you to Campusano? I'm noodling on a "what I'd do at the deadline" post and that exact deal is on there. Having catcher just totally (and quite satisfactorily!) taken care of heading into the winter would be a huge head start on team building. In fact combined with the positional versatility of Wisdom/Morel/Hoerner, Jed wouldn't be absolutely locked in on having to upgrade any specific position. He could just go get his favorite 2-3 bats and the defense will align around them. The thing that keeps me from being too enthusiastic about this(aside from the 'dreamed up trades never happen' odds), is that I'm not really sure what the Padres then use their newfound savings on. Everything I can find says they may want multiple OF, which makes sense given that Grisham has been terrible and Mazara may be fool's gold. But the outfielders that you might get in addition to Happ are not super expensive: Benintendi, Mullins, Reynolds, Peralta, none of them are making 8 figures on the luxury tax. Or they may just decide to run it back with Mazara/Grisham, maybe flex Tatis to the OF for health and create a platoon between one of the LH OF and Kim/Abrams at SS. But I guess if you think you are right up at your absolute limit, then freeing up Myers does get you the freedom to buy more than one if at least one comes free(Happ in this case).

Kilian with a terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad 3rd inning, giving up 7 runs and ending his night early. If you want a silver lining it's that none of the 3 singles he gave up that inning were line drives, so he might be a touch unlucky, at least unlucky relative to another inning where you give up a double, triple, and 2 HR.

I was a little skeptical of the fit for the Padres with as well as Profar and Mazara have been playing. But Profar nearly broke his neck last night and will be out for an indeterminate period, and they are giving most of their DH playing time to Voit already, so there's possibly a decent window here. If you sent Happ(with his 2022 tab paid for) and took on Myers' money, I wonder how close that gets you to Campusano?

I feel like I heard something about Stroman, Miley and Smyly all starting to throw like 10 or so days ago. I would assume at least 1 of them would be back in the next 2 weeks, no? Edit: Just googled it, Stroman and Smyly are likely to start this weekend Yeah, the all-star break is in 10 days too, so while you still will need one of Sampson/Swarmer/Leiter even after Stroman and Smyly return, with Miley and Mills's timeline their days should be numbered. Especially since Miley's injury doesn't exactly make him an in demand trade target, plus if a permanent rotation spot opened up they might bring Kilian back. Also, Alzolay may still be alive in a closet in Mesa somewhere.

I'd tend to agree that we shouldn't expect multiple guys who need to be rostered from any single trade, be it Happ, Contreras, or Robertson. But if you think a guy is a 2023 contributor, the high minors are not so stacked with those that you need to shy away from them. Like if the Mets get aggressive about going after Contreras, I'm not gonna turn down Baty in the return because he'd need a 40 man spot. He'd be in line to start getting corner IF/DH at bats on a timeline not too dissimilar to Davis. But a second player in that hypothetical deal would be lower minors/higher upside instead of getting a relief arm or a hitter who won't be a first division starter.

4 straight outings with < 2 ER is at least progress, I'll take nitpicking the peripherals over being completely uncompetitive. Speaking of, Luke Little was legitimately good today, not walking anyone for just the 2nd time all year.

I've seen this suggestion a couple times now. Is the thought that a contender won't sign Conforto because of the unknowns regarding his health and since the Cubs are out of the playoff picture anyway it doesn't matter if he's really healthy or not this year so they can assume a higher level of risk? It's been a minute since I checked on this, but I don't think Conforto is set to be able to play in any games until around September. A contender would be taking a really big risk giving him playing time not knowing how quickly he's bounced back from an injury/surgery that impacts play as much as the shoulder.

I mentioned the trade stuff in Transactions, but Sharma's live chat today had some prospect stuff too.

that's literally what happened with Rizzo, Schwarber, Baez, Bryant; those spots went to Schwindel/Rivas, Ortega, Simmons, Wisdom are you surprised every time Lucy pulls back the football? Madrigal was the intended Baez replacement and they signed Pederson to backfill Schwarber, but that's beside the point. No, I don't expect them to treat every year the same depending on the roster and the talent in the broader organization, in the same way I expected greater aggression in roster-building in 2017 than I did in 2013. With the players they've added and developed in the last 18 months I expect them to put a greater priority on getting more certainty in what they expect with various positions. Doesn't mean that they'll blanket every roster spot above whatever criteria we're using(your list above ranges from minor league FA, to a bench guaranteed FA signing, to low-pedigree homegrown prospect), but I don't anticipate them using half the roster as opportunities to pan for gold.

Sharma with a few nuggets in his live chat today:

I mean I think we can all internalize that there are no guarantees, and that goes both ways. We've seen that very clearly this year with how the now-departed FA's have performed in their new orgs. Plus in the case of Happ himself his career has been very up and down(needing an Iowa stint after 2 years in MLB, his constantly evolving defensive home, etc) so the degree of confidence we can have about him individually isn't greater than normal either. Rizzo & Schwarber are top 10 in HR, Contreras & Happ are top 20 in OBP, all were/are pretty obviously unwanted past their underpaid years more waiver claims & trade flyers, next year's versions of Rivas, Frazier, Schwindel are probably going to tank the offense again to where competition is inconceivable and we'll think to ourselves, again, "hey if we put better players in these black holes then we could have something" You're creating a false dichotomy that not wanting to extend 30+ FAs long guarantees means they're always replaced with waiver wire fodder. Part of the point of trading Happ now is that you can get a return that can impact 2023 and 2024 instead of waiting for his value to drop to the point where he can't bring that back or waiting on a comp draft pick, and the org is far more capable of creating a capable LF in house right now than they are at other places like 1B and SP. Yes, non-tendering Schwarber was a mistake(and probably a unique combination of pandemic circumstances), and sure Rizzo has hit some HR at Yankee Stadium but he wasn't going to be an important part of a competitive Cubs team no matter the spending. And the guys who you could argue might have been able to like Bryant and Baez have completely fallen on their faces.

I mean I think we can all internalize that there are no guarantees, and that goes both ways. We've seen that very clearly this year with how the now-departed FA's have performed in their new orgs. Plus in the case of Happ himself his career has been very up and down(needing an Iowa stint after 2 years in MLB, his constantly evolving defensive home, etc) so the degree of confidence we can have about him individually isn't greater than normal either.

I think the positional limitations combined with this year's performance are the compelling reason to trade him. Happ has had his best defensive season partially because he's been exclusively a left fielder, even as injuries and roster shuffling have forced all number of absurdities(e.g. Wisdom in RF), Happ has played all but 12 innings this season in LF. That's also one of the easiest positions to replace above average production for, and the Cubs have several internal candidates who can help with this now(Ortega) and in the very near future(Velazquez, Davis). The other element is this year's performance(he's on pace to hit 4 fWAR), which makes him more desirable in trade as a clear upgrade over a mediocre LF or platoon, but I would fall short of saying is the new norm you can expect of Happ. Combined with his age and remaining team control, you know that in 18 months you're going to have to make a decision on keeping an above average but not star level LF. Even big market teams aren't in a huge hurry to lock in that type of player, doubly so the type whose value is more predicated on offense/defense balance like Happ compared to a big bopper who can fake it in LF(Castellanos, Schwarber). So that leaves you with the question, do you think this year is the new norm for Happ? If you do, then you should probably keep him. Given his work with the union he seems unlikely to take an extension, but you'd still gladly offer a QO for a 4 win OF and take the pick or get him for an additional year in 2024 when you hope to be competing for the playoffs. If you think he's more of the 2-3 win variety he has been for most of his career, then it probably* makes more sense to trade him this summer. Prices are higher at the deadline and teams will be signing up for 1.5 years of Happ, maximizing the value. *I think you can make the argument that even if you think he's a 2-3 win player the big market Cubs should be fine with the risk of Happ accepting the QO, but ultimately that's a question of if you can get more than the QO pick for him at the deadline(almost certainly) and if 2-3 win Happ is especially crucial to the team's 2023 chances or 2024 chances at 18 million. Compared to the impact his return in trade could make on 2023/2024(and the aforementioned internal options cushioning his loss), imo it tips the scales to trading him.

Mervis with HR #13 in 190 PA at AA, OPS should be just about back at 4 figures again

Nice outing for Newcomb, would be nice if he could string a few together. Also Steven Brault showed up in the Iowa box score, which may be something that's relevant come August 1st.

Excellent work from Wicks: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 6/1 K/BB Devers is relieving him, which maybe says something about how much longer Wicks has in South Bend?

Passan has a recent article on the future of the SP that says Theo is loudly advocating to anyone who will hear to make it 11, but I haven't seen any indication that or 12 is affirmatively going to happen.

Right, the idea is that pre-arb reliever is the 2nd or even 3rd piece in a deal that also involves a bigger player. Toronto doesn't have much use for Contreras or Happ which further makes it unlikely, but the Mets could desperately use Willson, so if a middle reliever is what gets you over the line to get an Alvarez you tell him to pack his bags. Thompson I would've said the same thing about a month ago, but now that's a little more nuanced a conversation. Toronto is desperate for a LH hitter that's why the got Tapia in the Spring but have been underwhelmed - there've been whispers about them going after Benintendi or Adam Frazier. Contreras is much less likely but there have been concerns about the young catchers (outside of Jansen who has been injured) handling of the pitching staff some suggesting that's reason for the struggles of Kikuchi and Berrios. So if they decide they are all in this year I can squint and see them being interested in a Veteran catcher that plays everyday and they have no commitment to beyond this year. But the main point is if they are looking at the other 2 LHs they'd have to have some interest in Happ I'd think. If they went after him that'd be great, and I see why they might want a platoon-y role player type, but given Happ's positional limitation and the presence of Hernandez and Gurriel in the corner OF(not to mention Vladito taking DH time), I'm skeptical they'll go too hard for a top of the market type. But that also is a good segue into one of the sneaky tricky things about trading Happ, his position. If he's only a LF like he's been for the Cubs this year, even though that is the best defensive and overall version of himself, it cuts down on his suitors significantly. The Yankees are a clean fit, but outside of that there isn't a team with a gaping hole at LF(or DH) so you have to hope someone gets really invested into upgrading, and paying the price to do so beyond this year.

A .300 wOBA backup catcher as the downside is more than fine though, and Higgins's all-field approach might be more likely to beat his exit velocities in a similar way that contact managing pitchers can beat FIP with some regularity.

For sure, if Effross is the barrier in getting a Top 10 overall prospect back at the deadline(Moreno, Alvarez) then you do that very quickly. But teams don't operate like that when it comes to Top 10 prospects in this day and age, definitely not when the prospects are MLB ready. Mayyybe the Mets are reckless/desperate enough that Willson + Robertson + reliever gets you to Alvarez, but their pen hasn't really been a problem so you'd probably need cascading injury/performance collapses. Effross isn't going to get you Moreno - Keegan might be a start?? Right, the idea is that pre-arb reliever is the 2nd or even 3rd piece in a deal that also involves a bigger player. Toronto doesn't have much use for Contreras or Happ which further makes it unlikely, but the Mets could desperately use Willson, so if a middle reliever is what gets you over the line to get an Alvarez you tell him to pack his bags. Thompson I would've said the same thing about a month ago, but now that's a little more nuanced a conversation.

I get the logic, but Velazquez is fast enough that a DP isn't high risk, and you might as well give him a shot to run into one. The most likely outcome in all cases is what just happened though.

I see such a drastic dropoff once he reached AAA and I'm wondering if his big struggle has been the bendy and offspeed stuff. He cruised through AA with super rates across the board. Could be, but he only played 19 games at AAA across 2 seasons so I wouldn't read too deeply into that line. Especially since he's got 480 MLB PA at about a league average level to help with some concerns that AAA performance could surface.

I was chatting with a buddy that's a Twins fan this morning and he thought that Larnach might available in a deadline deal. He's currently hurt and may be out of favor with Kirilloff, Miranda, Celestino, and Arraez taking PA where he would get them.

I don't have any scouting/first hand accounts, but he's been very good. Between Hughes and Hudson(who both have been hard on both RHH and LHH), plus some lesser likelihood options that could break through(Little, Newcomb, Wieck), I'm hopeful they won't need to bring in next year's version of Norris to ensure there's enough LHP representation in the pen.

Said another way, Gallo is the rare free agent who will be under 30, has averaged 3.8 fWAR per 150 games over his previous 5 seasons, and may not command a huge deal because he struggled this year.