Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Yeah, I really think this is the primary takeaway, that compared to last year the league had a much different valuation on Contreras than last year's QO'able rentals. It might be the new playoff format that pushed urgency(and therefore offers) down below the benefit of the QO, and it might be that the league hates Contreras so the best option is actively trying to keep him and tacking a QO on his value helps to that end. Probably at least some combination of the two, but given that Willson's bat plays at any position I tend to think it's more of the league's view of him as a catcher.
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I'd personally rather have the comp pick. Valdez in particular is a below average defender and doesn't have any real prospect pedigree, in terms of immediate help he's redundant with McKinstry, who is the better player. One thing that is interesting to me is how *unique* Willson's situation was in terms of the QO impacting his value. I quickly looked at the list of deadline deals and I don't think a single player who is likely to get a QO got traded. The closest were maybe Vazquez or Benintendi which feel like big stretches. Now there weren't a ton of players who are likely to get a QO in total and no others that I can see on true sellers either. Rodon and Bogaerts both stayed with their teams too, though neither Boston or SF seemed interested in making themselves actively worse given their WC odds.
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I’m at the game so this isn’t a fully formed thought, but I wonder if the lukewarm interest is reflective of Willson not having a robust FA market, further diluted now that he’d be saddled with a QO. That works as a FO strategy only if they really like Willson’s profile going forward, which seems uncertain to say the least. The other thought is if they have some internal limits re: QO free agents for talent pipeline purposes, and not dealing Willson for a 45 FV prospect is not better than either keeping him or being unrestrained in FA since they have the pick to keep the talent/draft pools high (this is basically how the dodgers approach QO)
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Brown had apparently been called up to AA but hadn't pitched there yet. EDIT: He's Rule 5 eligible so needs added to the 40 man this offseason.
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MLB Pipeline, unclear when exactly this report is from:
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The replies to this are equal parts "who?" and "what I thought he was untouchable" and I'm not up on Phillies twitter to know who's being ironic or not. Wasn't in Fangraphs' preseason list after barely pitching last year, has incinerated High A so far this year.
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Seems like he might get something out of it: In other situations in the past, the promise of playing time has been a motivator and would apply here.
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Honestly the Hosmer thing is the only part that has me at all fazed. There's a lot of people yelling 'that's it??' who are not thinking very hard about the actual value Soto is going to put up(thanks to his position/defense) and I'm also wondering where else you're gonna find a willing partner to give up as much pedigree and production as what is in that deal.
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Hosmer vetoing the trade is the entertainment we all deserve
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I've fallen madly in love with James Wood over the last month, but even still this still feels very light. I was expecting something like this with Corbin, with someone like Bell it feels kind of silly. Nats were clearly tasked with dumping Soto now so that it wasn't a PR hit for the new owners.
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He makes a lot of sense. I don't personally like him because he's outrageously fragile, but him plus some arms in a Happ deal would be very much in the spirit of "threading the needle." I keep forgetting about Jansen, I'm kinda into that as an option in a combo deal. But Jansen can't be the headliner, it's more or less Tiedemann or bust if you're doing Happ + RP.
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Would Bell’s inclusion in some of these rumors indicate that Hosmer is on the move? Maybe? But that begs further questions because no team is going to give value for Hosmer, and you're already giving so much value in the Nats deal you almost run low on reasonable options to convince someone to take Hosmer's deal. Plus their history so far has been not very willing to pay much of a prospect price to unload him, hence why he's still there.
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I haven't seen much discussion of the LT when it comes to Soto and the Padres, is it just assumed Washington is willing to chuck in 10+ million for this year because they like the Padres package so much? I haven't seen any indication Hosmer or even Myers would be going the other direction to mitigate the contract.
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Other than being a LHH true CF, can you sell me on Phillips? 40% strikeout rate, not a ton of power, not a ton of speed. He's elite in CF(UZR says +11, Statcast says +15), and he has pop in his bat(.160 IsoP that was even higher before this year). He hasn't shown the hit tool to be a regular but you don't even have to hit .250 with those skills and this run environment to be a borderline starter. Plus he fits the current and likely future roster well that is heavy on RH OF but light on LH OF and has no surefire CF. But ultimately this is appealing in a similar way that Dom Smith is appealing, if you can get him for nearly free then you can see a path to it working out well, but it's a flyer that you don't change your plans around.
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Sobering return in comparison to the value Robertson/Givens have, all the more reason to do at least one combo deal now.
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I was going to post pretty much the same...LHH too fwtw
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I'm not sure Toronto has enough interesting stuff they'd be willing to give to get Happ + Robertson, never mind Smyly too(though he isn't worth much). Contreras + Robertson would be an exciting combo to head to Tampa given their farm, and if Toronto is willing to get there on Happ adding on Smyly could help get over the top on a preferred target.
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If the Mets are as bad at understanding leverage as their beat writers, I wonder if this might be a pop-up landing for Willson. I'd much rather be dealing with "lesser" prospects from the Rays org, and there's a few guys even at 50 FV I could see potentially being available due to their various flaws/performance issues(e.g. Mead or Jones). Plus further downstream you can probably shake loose someone like Colby White for instant impact.
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No, the likely outcome of a Soto to the Cards deal is 1-2 MLB pieces(Carlson, Gorman), and 2-4 of those Top 100 prospects(almost certainly including their one elite prospect in Walker). The positive outcome is Soto replaces Carlson(muting the marginal improvement since Carlson is playing at a 3-4 win pace this year), and the farm system is diluted enough that the combination of Soto's FA and Arenado/Goldschmidt's age creates the clearest window end they've had in a number of years.
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Brett Phillips got DFA'd as a roster casualty of the Mancini deal, I kinda wouldn't mind giving him a shot at some OF PA. He can play a legitimate CF(unlike basically everyone on the current roster) and if the bat doesn't work in a new org then you can non-tender him if you like.
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If we're doing tea leaves the Cards passing on Montas plus the Hader deal would make you wonder if the Cards are getting Soto Their athletic beat writer was asked to guess and only had them getting a smallish SP pickup like Wacha or Eovaldi. Feels like unless things develop late with a new SP target(Rodon?) they're about in Soto or bust territory for the deadline, unless they add another reliever on top of Romero. Maybe they could talk the Marlins into a SP? They've worked with them in the past.
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Yeah you could maybe see one of them getting done with some of the interesting pitching prospects, but both would be a stretch. That said, while I'm not quite as conspiratorial as Brett, I do agree with him that a lot of this is public posturing on the Mets side, and between the time pressure of the deadline and the possibility that other NL teams make upgrades(Soto, Montas, maybe Rodon, etc), I wouldn't be convinced that their prospect-clutching is a locked in certainty.
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Minor Cubs Deadline Trades
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Rex Buckingham's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Prospects Live is a pretty big fan of Wesneski, combined with the pipeline ranking it makes the more tepid eval from Fangraphs(which even states that he's on an upward trajectory that could continue) seem like the outlier. -
Minor Cubs Deadline Trades
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Rex Buckingham's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Probably noteworthy that we're now 2 for 2 in minor deals that are bringing back expected 2023 contributors. Maybe less so in the Effross case since he would've been one otherwise, but last year you saw these minor deals mostly being for players further away. Joc for Ball, Tepera for Horn, Marisnick for Espinoza, the only exception was Chafin for Deichmann/Palencia.
