Transmogrified Tiger

10 games as of right now, but who's counting? I guess it all depends on what you think is a good team. The 2016 Cubs weren't playing teams with a .420 and below winning percentages (in their division). The Cardinals would be in 3rd place in the NL East, 2nd place in the NL West. The only division they would be leading other than the NL Central is the AL Central. They are the king of the dipshits, a wildcard team. The definition of mildly ok. I was talking about against .500+ teams when mentioning 5 games since that's the record you were quoting. At the same point in their schedule(after game 120), the 2016 Cubs had teams with a .433 and .425 record in their division, and the Reds finished at .420. But also we're putting too much emphasis on how much of an impact that has on another team's record. The difference between a .400 winning percentage and .450 at this point in the season is around 7 games out of 120, it's meaningful but not the difference in playing a playoff team vs. Eastwestern State University. The difference across a division schedule is only a couple of games on the high end, and this year it's mitigated by the NL Central being matched with the toughest AL division(the AL East) in interleague.

So you give the Cardinals the same number of games(it'll actually be more when the season ends), and they're ~5 games behind the Cubs team that won 103 games and is one of the best teams of the last 10-20 years. The Cardinals are not one of the top 3 teams in the NL, and they're a beneficiary of the division(which itself is just a couple games out of 162 difference compared to playing the NL East/West), but that doesn't mean they're mediocre or not having a legitimately good season.

GB, K, IFFB for Estrada in a perfect 8th

I like Palencia lots too but he's gone over 3 lower minors IP a whole 9 times over 32 appearances between 2021-2022. Starter in any traditional sense is prooooobably not happening Something interesting about Palencia is he’s averaging more innings per start this year than Walker Buehler did in his one full season in the minors (2017). I feel like it’s pointless to just give up on starting for pitchers who are still building up IP, show they can start so far and are slower movers (Palencia is over a year from the bigs still). I think that's fair, and though I think part of Palencia's particular IP limits are self-imposed through poor control, it's not like the rotation spot he takes now or over the next 12 months are so precious that he'd be stunting anyone else's development. At the same time, when I think of 'holding velocity deep into games', I think of hitting triple digit pitch counts/3rd time through the order/6+ IP, so I wouldn't use that as a particular point in his favor based on what he's done so far.

The replies to this are killing me

Are we really going to have to do this once a week for the rest of the season, where someone pretends the 1st round of the MLB draft is an efficient market, and the current Cubs roster is full of no one who can help the team beyond playing out this string? You don't even have to try very hard to see the appeal today, Stroman went 7+, Madrigal had another 3 hit day, Hoerner had a defensive highlight reel, etc.

Wesneski would be on regular rest for Thompson's spot. The other consideration is there's a lot of games without an off day, today is the 8th straight game and there are 16 in the next 15 days after today. Kilian seems like a decent bet for the 27th man on Tuesday's DH since he would likely be starting for Iowa on Tuesday.

I think the September window will be pretty telling. Sargent stands a better chance than the average pop up player given his position and past experience with the National Team, but at the same time he hasn't been called in since the first WCQ window, where he got 125 minutes with no production(the US had a 0-1 scoreline with him on the field, 5-1 in the 150 mins without). Pepi didn't light the world on fire with his WCQ time either so I wouldn't be at all surprised, but if there's been enough tactical evolution since Sargent was last with the team, I wouldn't be surprised if Pepi gets taken over him if there's even a shred of playing time/form on Pepi's end.

Madrigal up to .316/.400/.368 since coming off the DL (45 PA)

Reyes had 2 triples in 1820 MLB PA before joining the Cubs, and now he has 2 in 35 PA as a Cub. As we all suspected the coaching staff unlocked something, but it was speed

I think that's true, and I think the league-wide progress in player development plays a big part. In 2013 there was less prospect upward mobility, especially for guys who had gotten above Low-A. Now individual player improvement is so common place that even if it's not the most likely outcome, there's a real chance that hot streaks are representative of a skill change that could be at least partially sustainable.

that makes 4 relief outings for Newcomb since he came back from Iowa: 5 IP, 1 H, 9 K, and... 7 BB edit: as a silver lining, 4 of those walks(vs 2 of the Ks) came in his second inning of work or later

I feel like a cranky old person on this, but I see a lot of big leaguers making bad tags like Willson just did. He has to come to you to touch the base, you don't have to go searching for a body part that will not be the first thing there. Great glove flip from Sampson though, maybe the best/most impactful one of those I've ever seen.

You hate to see a player bring his struggles at the plate into the field with him

Yeah Reyes being reasonably certain as the DH is not only objectively good, but it clarifies some of the direction you might go with other positions. You're less incentivized to bring back Willson if you have another 120 wRC+ RHH that you want to play most days as a DH. You worry less about OF depth and maybe trading someone like Happ or Velazquez, because even if Seiya doesn't bounce back you aren't relying on the OF to soak up a bunch of DH playing time too. And it clarifies the need around 1B a bit more, in that you probably aren't doing a new platoon at 1B and are likely going to want to target some type of LHH there(could be Bell, Mervis, a reclamation, etc)

Yeah I've seen some understandable trepidation about that move but I'm more positive about it than an attacker. Dest should do well in a ball-dominant scheme and while he'd need to maintain health and a certain level to keep a spot, I think given his skill set, Man U being a team with a ton of possession, and the lack of strong existing options he could be set up well there. Plus Ten Hag would know what he's getting from past experience, though as we've seen with Pulisic that's far from the most important thing.

If there's a silver lining, half the hits were groundballs and two of those were infield hits, so at least he wasn't giving up a bunch of rockets. But still, not great.

This pretty accurately sums up my feelings on the Pulisic destinations Man U is not only toxic, but the positional congestion is worse than Chelsea unless Rashford or Sancho leave and/or Ronaldo exclusively plays the 9 or leaves.

Britton as next year's Robertson feels almost too obvious the fit is so good. I've also liked Estevez for a while, in general I'm really keen on pitchers who have only known Colorado(Marquez is the other I'm eyeing) this offseason, both for altitude and player development reasons. Kimbrel I can take or leave, there's plenty of reason to think he can be really good and might welcome the chance to work with the coaching staff again, but I can also see him getting more than I'd prefer to spend on a reliever, and his velocity is at an all time low at 34 so he's closer to being truly cooked than he ever has.

so, Reyes has resumed hitting the bejeezus out of everything right from the start of his Cubs tenure, that's a fun development

Canario HR

Thinking through the way the front office's approach in their tenure so far, I wonder if they might not go for one of the SS if the right trade candidate becomes available. In particular I'm thinking about Rafael Devers. Why would Boston trade him? They're kind of a mess, they aren't good enough right now, six of their top 10 position players + SP are FA, and while they'll have money to spend they can't reasonably spend their way alone to competition in one offseason given how many holes there are to fill. That's a problem with Devers being one year from FA and early media reports are not very optimistic about an extension. Even though it's not popular, we've seen Bloom make this move before with the Mookie trade, and if they're bearish on Devers' future, whether it's his glove forcing to 1B/DH or his bat not persisting for some reason, the path is there for him to be available. Then the question might be, why trade for Devers when others are there for just money? The biggest one is age, Devers doesn't turn 26 til October, so if you're extending him prior to the season you're cutting off a significant amount of unproductive years compared to signing one of the SS, especially if it's not Correa you're signing. With Devers only a year from FA the cost would be noticeable but not obscene, and if you didn't keep Willson you'd have a head start on backfilling the cost, especially with many non-QO SP of interest. Additionally, Devers fits the team's need really well. He's an outstanding LHH power hitter that can stay at 3B at least for a few years, and the bat is well rounded enough that it may prove a better value than banking on the defense/positional value of some of the SS. What would that trade look like? The Betts deal again proves a useful blueprint. Mookie was a year older and a lot better, but also the Cubs wouldn't be taking back the equivalent of David Price's salary either. So if we roughly pattern match to that deal, it could maybe look something like Morel, Herz, and Triantos? That's not a small price, but if you consider the Contreras pick is roughly equivalent to Triantos and the ultimate limitations of those other 2, plus the benefit of not having to win a bidding war and getting a younger star, I can definitely see it being preferable for a FO that seems to fear too much age/contract downside.

That would be worrisome, but also he's 26 and has 40 IP above A ball with 25 BB, and might be out of options next year(I can never be certain). He's basically another Espinoza in my mind, which is to say I'm not putting much weight on his performance one way or the other.

Leigh isn't imminently Rule 5 eligible(though he turns 25 by opening day so the clock is ticking in that sense), so that says something about their view of him relative to options at Tennessee, though I guess most of those current options are guys nominally starting still(Jensen, Thompson). I wonder if there's a corresponding MLB promotion coming. Espinoza is the most obvious demotion candidate I can see, though you never know who might need an IL stint too.

the thing that gives me pause is that he lost out at dortmund too and under the other manager at Chelsea. For sure getting anywhere but Chelsea would be good. Did he lose out at Dortmund? I thought they did the thing they've done with other players before which was basically drop him once it became clear he wasn't staying at Dortmund beyond the year. Lampard is incompetent so I'm not particularly worried about that either. I do get the concern, though I think that's kinda part of the game now for attackers of a certain vintage. You get too good to go to anywhere but Champions League clubs, but most of them are trying to find playing time for 7 good attackers and you have to go supernova to be an every game player in a lot of cases.