Transmogrified Tiger

Morel looking at least capable of staying in the everyday lineup for a while is so nice not only because he's a young fun player and it was unexpected, but the positional flexibility makes the upgrade path easier. If it had been Madrigal that hit this well, the middle infield would be spoken for unless you wanted to experiment with Hoerner in CF(possible, but at least questionable as a Plan A). With Morel playing well you can upgrade at SS(Hoerner to 2B, Morel in CF), 2B(Morel in CF), or CF(Morel to 2B) depending on the target.

As with the season so far, it's gonna depend on the SP. Right now they're 18th in position player WAR, 19th in reliever WAR, and 28th in SP. If you had told any of us before the season that the Top 4 starters(Hendricks, Stroman, Miley, Smyly) will make 55% of the starts, and that Hendricks and Stroman combined for a 5+ ERA when they do start, we'd have said that team is not gonna win 75 games and might struggle to win 70. If you want the optimist's case, you don't have to squint very hard to see improvement from Hendricks/Stroman, and if Smyly and/or Miley aren't healthy soon they aren't gonna get dealt when they do get healthy, plus Kilian is likely to get his legs under him. Yes trading Contreras would suck but that's easier to weather over 2 months than half your rotation being hurt and the other half being bad(especially b/c of the downstream effects like pulling Thompson out of the pen). But none of that has to happen, any of the hurt pitchers could stay hurt or come back bad, Hendricks and Kilian might not find their command, Steele could run out of steam with a full season's workload. If things don't get better than they are now they're gonna be in the lottery. I don't think failing to win 60 games is particularly likely(they're still on pace for 61 after losing 9 straight), but that's not a terribly meaningful distinction. What matters more than winning 58 or 64 or 72 or 77 games is what pieces they comfortably have in place for next year.

Norris looks like a sad German clockmaker

Kilian's 2 seamer keeps leaking over the middle of the plate when he does manage to keep it in the zone, given the velocity it's almost like it has too much horizontal movement to be effective

I don't know if it would work out that way, but Musah getting to play his natural position because Valencia brought in Weah to play on the wing would be very welcome and fun.

why are they bringing the infield in one out into the game, the ball Machado hit probably gets through regardless, but maybe a couple feet either direction and it would've been an out at normal depth

I'm about as anti-game thread venting and pro-having a sense of (realistic) optimism as anyone here, but at this point I don't think it's worth getting worked up about people muttering about a terrible performance that extends their losing streak to 8, after an offseason in which they did not make dramatic changes to give immediate hope the team will be competitive. I still believe this is a decent(75-80 wins) team that has been dealt a bad hand with 1 run luck and injuries(IIRC there's only like 2 teams that have lost more value to injuries this year), and as such they stand to make a pretty substantial jump with the right improvements and graduations. But I also was more than happy to change the channel to avoid excess disgust while yesterday's lead went up in smoke, so as long as folks don't carry on over a zillion posts or take that game thread attitude into an otherwise objective discussion in other forums, I think that venting can be healthy for those who process it that way.

As of the start of the week they were saying that it's been a stubborn injury and they didn't want him trying to play through it at 85-90%, so it's a combination of not super severity and unknown return date for now.

we started the year with 38 right handed outfielders(not even including Morel!), how are we forced to put Wisdom there against a lefty to prevent Heyward from humiliating himself

He's really similar to Herz for me in that I can't tell how excited to be about them. On one hand, huge stuff as a SP, excellent total run prevention and K rates(Sanders hasn't quite gotten the huge K's at Iowa yet), these are the types of building blocks of front end starters. On the other hand, it's a miracle if they go 5 IP because their control is so spotty they run out of pitches or run into enough trouble they get pulled. The amount of dreaming you can do on a SP that never gets to face hitters a 3rd time because they walk upwards of 15% of batters faced isn't that great. For Sanders in particular, I kinda lean MIRP(basically another Thompson) moreso than Herz. Herz's length is at least in small part a function of conservative development practices so you can hope for more in the future, and Sanders isn't yet showing big K rates in AA, turns 26 by Christmas, and has had HR problems that Herz hasn't.

Mervis 2 for 4 with a 2B, narrowly improving his OPS. He's also really cut down on the K rate, only 7 in his last 57 PA to go with 4 BB and an OPS around 1.200

Steele has an L in it so he's the lefty Thompson's first name has an ee and k for "eek get that guy out of the rotation and back into the bullpen"

I think the Madrigal trade, regardless of what you think of him as a player, is a useful template in this vein. Find the worthwhile target that's hurt on a competitor and you can use both MLB pieces and some of the Rule 5 crunch guys to achieve that end. Also, while I like the wholly inclusive look at the candidates involved, I think there's a fair number of potential guys that can be left exposed without a ton of risk. Clarke, Thompson, basically everyone in that last MLB list save for maybe Hill or Little, it's all players who have swingman/middle relief or platoon upside if things break right. So while it's worth the thought to maximize your assets, in deadline deals it's a tiebreak consideration compared to getting the return you most believe in.

MLS finally announced their new broadcast deal, 100% on Apple with no cable exclusives or blackouts: https://www.mlssoccer.com/apple/ Slightly concerned what that might do to the financial viability, but as an MLS obsessive this is a great deal. One more nail in the coffin of the OTT cable package. EDIT: Apparently MLS is still negotiating with ESPN and Telemundo, so MLS is still likely to show up on cable in a diminished capacity but those games will all be available through the Apple service.

It might just be a temporary hot streak, but Justin Steele may be figuring some things out. His last month: 6 GS, 32 IP, 27 H, 31/13 K/BB, 1 HR, 3.66 ERA, 2.83 FIP Some things worth calling out in that run: - He's averaging 5+ IP per start, his previous 6 starts averaged less than 4 - Only 1 HR and a GB% north of 50%, plus BABIP is a reasonable .292 so he's not dodging a bunch of danger - K's are up and walks are down over the first 6 starts - He's throwing some more first pitch strikes (57% v. 52%), but otherwise there isn't a material change in pitch usage, zone%, or swing%, just mild improvements across the board - Weirdly enough, he has been consistently fine against RHH (roughly .300 wOBA), but lefties went from a .421 wOBA to .213 between the first 6 and last 6 starts - All of this includes his recent 2 IP, 7 ER blow up so we're not getting cute with endpoints to avoid the actual bad stuff All of this added together is pretty encouraging, because even when he had a crummy start to the year there were some promising signs, like his FIP and cruising through the first 3+ IP. If he's unlocked better sequencing or simply gotten his legs under him to be able to hold his performance through 5 IP consistently, that's a perfectly useful SP. He's on a pace for 3.3 fWAR per 30 starts even with the slow start, so even if his recent form regresses he still has room to meet the 'deserves a rotation spot' threshold.

I'm with you on what LDLT has shown, he's clearly pushed past others who haven't shown as much over qualifying(Lletget, Roldan, Acosta at the 8), but he's also had his opponents pretty carefully managed that I don't think he's starting outside of heavy fatigue or injury. However, we will see a pretty bunkered Iran that isn't throwing a bunch of Champions League talent out there in the 3rd group stage game, so if there's yellow card accumulation or heavy fatigue/injury, I think LDLT could potentially get a start/significant time. But plan A in that regard should be Aaronson, especially if you do get Gio healthy so you have Pulisic/Gio/Weah rotating through 2 spots on the field so Aaronson isn't needed to spell them.

I'm hoping that he's aldi-brand Goldschmidt. Like Mervis, Goldschmidt was a college draftee that lasted outside the top 5 rounds(8th to be specific), then moved quickly with consistently strong offense but didn't turn the corner into elite peripherals until AA at age 23(Mervis at a young 24 thanks to covid). Goldschmidt showed better plate discipline on the whole but there's still a whole lot of useful outcomes if Mervis falls short of that standard.

Genuinely don't understand what is going on with this 40 man management. I get that Newcomb hasn't shown anything, and that you're on day 4 of 18 straight, but DFA'ing him so quickly after you sent Chavez for him is confusing. Plus Norris and Hughes are on the roster, there's no pressing need for a third lefty, and Leiter is right there if you want length and are worried about Newcomb being down for a few days.

I think they strike out less (anecdotal but I've heard it mentioned on broadcasts) but the weird thing about having significantly worse players on offense is that it doesn't horsefeathering matter if you make contact or not. Just putting the ball in play is not the goal, but it seems to be the philosophy. They don’t work counts either. 2021 BB% - 19th K% - 30th IsoP - 10th wRC+ - 22nd 2022 BB% - 6th K% - 18th IsoP - 16th wRC+ - 16th This isn't a perfect comparison because they're one of 15 teams who didn't have a DH last year, but even with that in mind, it's fair to say they're succeeding at what they set out to do, and that it's a net benefit to the offense. Especially since the only real surprise offensive success they've taken advantage of has been Morel, and even he has only been around for less than half the season.

Yes, in April. Last I read the expectation is that he'll sign somewhere after the draft so he doesn't require pick compensation, and it's estimated he might be able to be back in the MLB lineup in September.

Gotta wonder how much longer Mervis needs to torch AA before he gets a shot at Iowa. He’s doubled his walk rate and lightly trimmed his Ks, plus his IsoP is up while his BABIP is down. Signs of sustainability all around while still putting up a ludicrous .445 wOBA. He’ll hit 100 PA in his next couple games, which is the point that got him bumped from South Bend to Tennessee.

There's reportedly 4 out and 4 in Villar off IL, Rivas to Iowa Gomes off IL, Frazier DFA Miley off IL, Stroman to IL Martin off bereavement, Rucker to Iowa Martin had been off the 40 man while on bereavement, hence the need for a DFA.

You know you're doing the right thing when both Benetti and Stone give the broadcaster's equivalent of "uhhhhhhhh what" when it happens.

PCA had played 6 professional games in A ball and then suffered a season ending injury, his value in July was far more equivalent to Vientos than Alvarez. But yes, I'm increasingly convinced the way forward here is extending Willson(as if 'keep the good player' needed a sales job) and probably trading Happ. I understand the concept of trading a player that they are unlikely to sign to an extension. I don't understand why they would want to trade Wilson and not get an adequate return. This is especially the case related to the value he has to the team, his positional value relative to his peers, and the Cubs positional need. I really cannot understand why they aren't going out of their way to extend him. I don't think the answer is PTR. But I don't know the baseball reasons. Maybe they think he's going to age very poorly and/or think his 2 months to start this year are not the new norm. Maybe Willson said "you traded away my friends so I'm not gonna sign here", or maybe he wants like 8/250 in order to forego a potential FA bidding war. In terms of the return, you can only get what is given. If they keep Contreras and let him walk they'll get a fairly high draft pick that sets a decent floor for what his return should be, but the team getting him doesn't get that pick and only gets him for 3 months + a playoff run. Teams are more hesitant than ever to trade top prospects, so the reality they have to face is they can either keep Contreras for the pick plus whatever increased likelihood of signing exists by not trading him, or they can take what they can get. I'm hopeful that if they do go that route they'll be able to do better than they did last July(though early signs are very very good on the success rate w/ Bryant/Baez/Rizzo returns), but it's also not gonna be one of the 10 best prospects in the game.