Transmogrified Tiger

Just to put a finer point on it, here's a hypothetical 6-9 months of moves that probably won't happen but there's no hard reason that it couldn't: - Happ and Miley to Minnesota for Kirilloff and a high potential flyer: Twins get a bat(for 1.5 years) and a SP for the playoff push, Cubs get a lefty 1B/DH bat with pedigree to hope for a similar turnaround that Rizzo had - Robertson to Tampa for Xavier Edwards: Rays get a very good bullpen arm for a player without 5 win ceiling and who is blocked by a number of guys. Cubs get a lefty hitting 2B/3B with 80 speed coming into some power at AAA this year - Extend Contreras, 6/120: Willson gets his longer term deal at a number that beats Realmuto, Cubs avoid going over 20 million AAV which could cause more future pain - Sign Nimmo, now you have CF covered and don't have to worry about Davis or Morel being permanent fixtures there(or PCA coming right up), plus it'll be a smaller deal than one of the SS so it's more likely the FO does it - Sign 2 FA SP, pick your favorite/most likely among Musgrove, Taillon, Rodon, Manaea, Eflin, even Thor or Clevinger. Similarly they shouldn't require 6 or even 5 year deals so the FO is likely to be playing in those waters to avoid long term downside FA/Stroman/FA/Hendricks/Steele/Kilian, Thompson reinforces a pen rebuilt similarly to this year Contreras/Kirilloff/Edwards/Hoerner/Wisdom/Ortega/Nimmo/Suzuki, with Morel super subbing at 2B(platoon), CF(platoon), and 3B(matchup), and Velazquez/Davis taking time(platoon) and possibly eventually starting in place of Ortega, plus you need a DH from the group too. This has the problem of trying to create a team full of 3 win players with no elite talent, but it would substantially raise the floor without compromising existing farm depth or future spending(this would be ~30 mil short of the LT, Hendricks + Heyward are 36 million coming off after 2024)

That's why I posted it though, to mock Al Yellon because he's endlessly mockable. Oh I agree, I was trying to tee up mockery with the fewest possible page views on his end.

Houston, Tampa, Cleveland, and the Mets are all in the bottom 10 in catcher WAR, plus Boston, San Francisco, and the White Sox (if they buy) in the bottom half. I think you can spin logical reasons for most of those not wanting to mess with Willson, but if you want the top suitors it'd probably be the Mets and Giants. That said, unless Willson wants 7/175 or something please just extend him.

I will save you the click, his solution is hiring Sam Fuld. Also he spends a paragraph getting mad that the Cubs took batting practice on some very hot days, and another paragraph mad that they signed Stephen Brault who has co-hosted Chris Rose's Youtube show a couple times while he's rehabbing injury.

I split this into its own thread because I had a very similar thought this morning and it's getting to be about trade szn. To help with the FV conception and think about who might be available, here's a list of FV 45-50 players (per Fangraphs) on teams currently with a winning record: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&team=tor,atl,bos,chw,phi,min,nym,sdp,lad,nyy,tbr,cle,hou,sfg,laa&filter=scoutgrade%7Cf%7CFV%7Clt%7C50%7C50,scoutgrade%7Cf%7CFV%7Cgt%7C45%7C45&pageitems=200&pg=0&pos=

The last time I verbalized that thought he had that crummy series against Miami and a few of their top prospects(5 for 26, 2B, 9/1 K/BB), but yeah we're at 150 PA of 1.000+ OPS with his peripherals being better than they were at South Bend. If he's not going there out of the all-star break at the latest then something has gone wrong IMO.

Remind yourself of the .441 BABIP Sure a fair amount of it is probably good fortune, but in the minor leagues a lot of BABIP "luck" is a reflection of being too good for the level. Maybe not in this case to the same degree that a guy with a .250 BABIP in low A may not have the hit tool, but still. Even if you hacked off 70 points he'd still have a .360ish wOBA. Plus regardless of luck, hitting .390+ for 3+ weeks is remarkable on its own.

This made me curious, it looks like using Fangraphs' evals that the lead prospect would be around a 45 FV, here's what a list of those look like from teams that may be buying: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&team=tor,atl,bos,chw,phi,min,nym,sdp&filter=scoutgrade%7Cf%7CFV%7Ceq%7C45%7C45&pageitems=200&pg=0 Some interesting names, especially for potential short term impact. Groshans, Steer, O'Hoppe, Muller, Walter, and Woods-Richardson caught my eye in particular.

He's on the IL with a groin injury.

Darius Hill is now over 80 PA at Iowa and he's hitting over .390, I really don't know what to do with that.

With Nico, you'd like to see the walk rate go back to last year's levels, but that's a nitpick when he's playing as well as he is. Roughly league average offense from a plus SS goes a long way. Now is probably a good time to get a sense of his appetite for an extension, he's only just turned 25 but he's first time arb eligible this year already, it could be mutually beneficial for Hoerner to lock in his financial security(even as a 1st rounder he "only" got a bonus of 2.7 mil) and the team can be more aggressive knowing he's not even going to hit 30 until his 2nd post-FA year.

The lineup is hardly amazing but league-wide slugging is .393 this year Yeah that's almost exactly normal, there's 155 qualified hitters and 50(including those 3 Cubs) have a SLG of .450+

not sure why we're trying to get multiple innings out of Leiter Jr. in that situation, doubly so when Hendricks went so deep last night

Can't wait for Bale and Vela combined to be 75% of the winger that Rossi was for them 2 years ago (I will delete this before Bale's first game because I am a coward)

Ortega is a year further from arbitration, but more importantly he's 2.5 years older, which makes it a harder sell for a material return at 31 than 28. I'm not overly enthusiastic about Ortega, but between his age and the way he can help the team in the short run(raising the roster's floor, hitting left handed on a roster/high minors devoid of LHH) I find it hard to see a net positive trade outcome for him. Wisdom could be a different story if the right deal came along given his younger age and defensive value, but again someone has to play 3B and there's no reason a team can't be competitive with Wisdom playing 3B in the meantime.

The Twins are also a potential Happ destination. It might be too late considering he's currently getting regular run at 1B(though he hasn't hit in MLB yet), but I'd love to get my hands on Kirilloff.

The Apple TV games are a blight but if they're going to put a Cubs game on there I appreciate it being against St. Louis so I at least have the option to watch.

The Athletic has a fairly detailed write up on the state of play with Davis and PCA: https://theathletic.com/3382581/2022/06/24/cubs-brennen-davis-pete-crow-armstrong/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983 Noteworthy things from my read: - Davis barely has more minor league PA than Bryant did when he got promoted to MLB, which combined with his late focus on baseball means he needs more reps. Especially given the way his weaknesses will be exploited, like taking advantage of his size/long levers to create K's up in the zone. - PCA's injury was quoted as a 2 week rest, and we're almost to that point. He's doing some defensive work and will face live pitching this weekend so a return to the lineup should be pretty soon - PCA's exit velocities are up 2-3 mph this year, which per Hoyer is a significant jump. Given what was already known about the speed/defense/contact profile, that type of pop really raises the ceiling.

My general feeling is: Turner playing regularly > Steffen as a backup Turner as a backup > Steffen as a backup Turner as a backup < Steffen playing regularly Turner playing regularly ?? Steffen playing regularly The margins are pretty small, and also I have more confidence than most that Steffen getting regular minutes is a much better shot stopper than his recent reputation.

The Thunder drafted Jalen Williams and Jaylin Williams.

lol that is terrible, if you tag him over the plate at the top of the knee where do you think the rest of his leg is

uh Wisdom is obviously safe?

I started down the list of teams ranked below Iran and I got to New Zealand before I found one that I'd rather face instead of Iran

wow that is an impressive slide from Velasquez, he should have been out comfortably