Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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I'm glad we have replay but an MLB umpire has to get that out call at 2nd right -
Seemed pretty clear on replay that he slipped
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Ozuna couldn't control his temper you say
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So it's definitely gonna be Assad tomorrow
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Even limiting to after his dev list time, the 9 BB and 3 HBP in 13 IP give me a lot of hesitation about having Little skip a level and join a playoff race. In that same July timeframe there's been a few interesting arms at Iowa that are in a run of good form too that I'd probably prefer to see: Horn, Kilian, Clarke, plus whoever is only holding serve in the MLB staff now until Stroman returns.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-3-23
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I'm not sure what to make of Birdsell right now. I've been hoping for more K's given he hasn't shown elite control, but that hasn't really shown through with consistency. But he's clearly doing something that's repeatedly too much for A+ hitters given the results. Add in the really weird extreme FB numbers that are paired with a low HR rate and maybe there's some contact management stuff going on? Probably not repeatable that is across 3 further levels, but nonetheless strange. -
Correct, based on the underlying inputs we would normally expect better outcomes. Their record should improve *more often than not*, because just like looking at the underlying inputs is a probabilistic exercise(hence why it doesn't match to begin with), so is projecting it forwards. And that assumes that the underlying inputs remain good. You can play well in the past and be unlucky and then play poorly in the future and not be unlucky, leading to an overall bad record. That doesn't mean that probabilistic model is wrong, the point is not to predict exact reality but to predict what is most likely.
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You seem to be making this a backwards facing conversation when it is a forward facing conversation. The point of looking at peripherals like this isn't to re-litigate past games(otherwise we'd just change how we keep score), it's to understand what it means for the future. Even when we say 'the Cubs ought to have been better by X games based on this', the point of saying so is it serves as the justification for saying what their chances are in the games or seasons that haven't happened yet. And for that purpose, the top line result that happened is less important than the probabilistic outcome that isn't bound by those literal top line outcomes.
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Not an exact match but here's his numbers v. LHH by month And as you can see here this hasn't been a historical problem for him
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Part of his crummy start was bad luck(his LOB% was absurdly low), but the graphic they showed earlier with his numbers v. LHH during this stretch is the thing. He's (re)figuring something out against them and that's going a long way.
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That's a bad send even if it wasn't De La Cruz throwing, the relay was receiving it just off the infield grass as he rounded third.
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Benson swings a bat like a football player
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lol, pathetic attempt by Bell, you have to be at least 1% believable
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Fangraphs' Depth Charts are pretty good for looking ahead at pitching matchups: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/cubs
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I didn't have the patience to do it with every team, but capping per-game at +/- 5 runs seems to have the same impact on the Cubs as it does to the Dodgers and Braves, dropping the net total by ~35.
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The walk rate, and by extension his limited IP/GS even with durability and top line ERA success, is pretty disqualifying to being useful as a SP though. Could make the control/command leap still, and would still have utility as a bullpen arm of some caliber depending on how the control/command improves and stuff plays up, but he still needs to make some leap to avoid the bullpen ceiling which matters a lot in conversations about trade value.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-2-23
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Since the All-Star break and the switch to the non-tacked ball, Caissie is hitting .345/.451/.724 with a 15% BB% and 25% K%. Ideally the strikeouts are a little bit lower(though I'm not sure what the non-tacked ball average for AA is), but that's quickly approaching the point where he gets more development by taking on the next level. Doesn't mean that you have to move him to the big leagues any faster if he struggles there, but he's just about to the point where you aren't learning much else by staying in AA. -
What's hilarious is Messi didn't even draw the PK or take it.
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I had heard the PK was soft and finally watched the video and yeah, that's about as soft as they come
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He's been a Cub for 48 hours and raised his OPS by over 30 points
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Fair enough, "no past performance" is an overstatement, though the heart of that sentiment rings true since that was 4 years and multiple orgs ago.
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Even if Tauchman's peripherals were pristine, he'll be 33 next year and has no past performance to indicate that might be his level. Enjoy the hot streak and the story but no need to make any plans around it beyond not cutting him.
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Ben Brown to the IL
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I'm sorry to report that it's boneitis -
If you're looking at the Def value, that's relative to all positions. FG has him with a +1 UZR in the OF and +0 by OAA https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mike-tauchman/15274/stats#fielding
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-1-23
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
This is the thing I'm most interested in, because a 130 wRC+ with a near 1:1 K/BB in A+ at age 20 is excellent, but the 11 errors in 40 games at 2B are not inspiring confidence he's staying on the infield. Still a good prospect either way, just a matter if you're dreaming on him being Jeff Cirillo or Michael Brantley.
