Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Even if you assume Morel is 70% to fail in that situation and so is Nico + Happ with 2 outs, you've given yourself coinflip odds of tying the game and probably only a little bit less than that of taking the lead. Madrigal or a catcher had to take that plate appearance, so a DP is a serious risk no matter what and it will take an uncommon result to move the runners over without a bunt. So you remove the DP risk and trade the odds of one of those guys driving in the runner for the increased chance at both tying the game and taking the lead. It's a good decision. -
I'm oversimplifying, but if I'm choosing between the risk that the top of the order fails a 2nd/3rd 1 out situation, the risk that a catcher fails to get a sac bunt down and they still need a hit against a regular IF to score a run, or the risk that a catcher(or Madrigal) hits into a DP and Morel needs a hit, I know which one I'm choosing.
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I think Candelario is probably an acquisition/extension that's greater than the sum of his production. The ability to play 1B and 3B as well as switch hit affords a lot of flexibility to keep the best possible lineup day to day, and he doesn't have any dramatic flaws as a hitter that make a lineup heavy on a certain type. I don't know if I love him being the best bat added to the 2024 roster though, and getting a plus SP, Bellinger or similar impact bat, plus Candelario might be too tough an ask. As for his contract, looking at the deals given out last year, the number that sticks out for me is around 60 million. I would be a little surprised to see him get 5 years at his age and even 4 might be questionable, but for the Cubs' purpose giving him Benintendi's deal minus a year may be preferable to giving out an Abreu deal for LT purposes.
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Sneaky has beaten me to this but you definitely will! It's also instructive to look at more than just this year to understand why people might have more optimism in Mervis' future than Perlaza's. More broadly, here are half of the Top 10 first basemen in baseball this year Yandy Diaz Christian Walker Nathaniel Lowe LaMonte Wade Josh Naylor While no two paths are exactly the same, it's worth pointing out 1) their ages when they had real MLB success 2) how dominant they were(or weren't, relative to Mervis) in AAA 3) their lack of immediate MLB success 4) their lack of draft/prospect pedigree (Naylor is the closest and he graduated a fringe Top 100 guy) and 5) that none of them ended up succeeding with their original organization. There's an assumption here that because Mervis is at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, he has to be good beyond imagination at AAA with the bat in order to have an MLB future, because he wasn't good in his first try and he's old for the level and lacks scouting oomph. Prospects fail as a rule so we shouldn't expect an outcome like the gentlemen above, but they're pretty proof positive that Mervis' circumstances don't condemn his chances.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-9-23
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Don't get me wrong, this isn't me crusading that Caissie is an uber-prospect, though relevant to the Mervis conversation the chasm for future seasons at 1B/DH combined with his breakout does tempt me more than in April. The point I'm driving at is his batted ball numbers are like 7th on the list of things that might derail him or limit his ceiling, and constantly picking that out first and foremost steers us away from what is more meaningful in whether or not a player makes it. For Caissie it's the K rate(or contact rate if you prefer) first, second, third, and probably fourth, followed by his huge frame making him an almost certain 1B/DH even if he's not an embarrassment in RF now. There are only so many Joey Gallos and betting on someone being another(especially seeming to lack Gallo's agility/athleticism that let him fake it at 3B and CF up to the MLB level) is not going to win very often. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-9-23
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
When Caissie hits 26 more LD + HR and the distinction betwee LD v. FB is not absolute both from a measurement perspective and therefore the objective benefit of getting one v. the other, then yeah you're getting into like a 15 batted balls over 400+ PA, variance can absolutely play a part. And again that assumes we put this enormous importance on hitting things classified as FB(or not classified as GB) to begin with, and ignore the actual outcomes or the other underlying stuff like Caissie putting up like 98th percentile EVs or w/e it is. I'm begging you to not be a single issue voter on minor league batted ball %, you're way too smart to put this much weight on it. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-9-23
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Oof, here I am doing napkin math and not scrolling down to the raw totals. Anyway, Caissie has 18 more line drives and 8 more home runs as well. These are just not dramatically meaningful distinctions to think that a player with a standard deviation less offensive production(even before considering ARL) is somehow a better bet or that a difference in variance or measurement error is pass/fail for the player's future prospects. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-9-23
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Caissie has hit 1 less ground ball than BJ Murray in 2 less PA -
Mervis has 512 PA at the AAA level with a wRC+ over 140 to go with a 13.8% BB% and 17.1% K%. He may not be hitting at the very top of the scales for AAA hitters, but that's not the pass/fail indicator that he'll be a better hitter at the MLB level, since he's clearly not struggling to hit for average or power and does have top of scale plate discipline for the level. Said another way, Mervis may not be at the very top of AAA leaderboards, but I don't think there's much else he can demonstrate that would raise confidence that his next MLB try will be different, because whatever was getting exploited at the MLB level is not showing up in AAA.
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Is anyone saying "you can't get a 1B because you'll block Mervis"? I'm not really seeing that so I don't get this framing. All teams have scarce resources, there's at least some reason for optimism in his future productivity, 1B doesn't have a glut of obvious options on the market and as a position is more likely to have pop-up successes. There's definitely offseasons where prioritizing other options and having Mervis be the incumbent or near incumbent can make sense, and various spaces in between(a de facto platoon/competition with Madrigal if they bring back Candelario, a de facto competition w/ Tauchman/PCA if they bring back Bellinger, etc). There are also offseasons where they go get Alonso or Naylor or trade Mervis in a challenge deal for a pitcher or something. I get that you're compelled to hold this line on minimizing Mervis's impact because of your convictions around the caliber of prospect he is, but I don't see how it's that binary.
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honestly more concerned about Vogelbach than Alonso in this situation
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-8-23
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Caissie has now homered since this tweet -
That HR carried...a lot more than I thought it would off the bat
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Nats lost game 1 to the Phillies, and lead game 2 by 1 in the 5th Marlins lead the Reds by 1 in the 8th Brewers/Rockies scoreless after 3
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Decent odds Nico gets ejected before they leave New York
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that is a low key insane slide from Gomes, good reminder that even 'unathletic' pro players are a different species
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I imagine the plan is for him start against LHP, if anyone besides the middle infield or C needs a day off, or if Madrigal or Tauchman get cold. With the team in the playoff chase there may be a stretch like this where he's not very visible, but I wouldn't be surprised if we add it up at the end of the year and he started more than a third of games post-Candelario trade.
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Burdi, Boxberger, and Roberts are all on the 60 day IL and all 3 are starting to get game action again.
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Is this the year before a historically good season that culminates in a title? Almost certainly not. Is this the first year of a streak of seasons where the team is playoff caliber? It can be. The team as constructed today is close to a division winner on paper, and if they fall short I'm gonna try not to dwell too much on what might have happened if they had signed Candelario instead of Mancini. That said, the 2016 team made a big spending splash with Heyward and added a depth starter in Lackey, but their quality was already there to make that historic run. That is not the case for the 2024 team, so they need to either keep or replace a fair amount of quality with a good success rate plus get some other unexpected breakthrough(their Aramis/Arrieta trade, for example) to set themselves up for the future. The quality they have to replace is generally here at market rates(Stroman, Bellinger, Hendricks) so the finances should be less of a constraint, but you've still got to make those moves happen.
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- jake arrieta
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well now Wisdom can pitch the 8th
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Happ I don't think realized the throw was coming to 3rd, so he started an abbreviated slide late and ended up stumbling past the bag. His hand slipped a couple inches off the base so he got tagged.
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"JD probably would've given you a more clever answer" your words not mine Joe
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Not as much as it used to, especially for 1B. Look at the leaderboards for the position and see how many of the Top 10 hitters or so didn't break through in MLB until 25+, didn't have much prospect pedigree, or both. Hitting modern pitching at a level suitable for the bottom of the defensive spectrum seems to take more reps to prepare than it did a decade ago. That said, I do think trading for Candelario and playing him at 1B is instructive for Mervis' future on a couple levels. There's no longer the assumption that MLB growing pains are an acceptable cost of business. Doesn't mean that every prospect that doesn't hit immediately is banished forever, but they're playing to win now and they aren't going to hold the door open for him like they did this year with Hosmer and Mancini. Also, adding Candelario as a 1B without giving Mervis another shot(especially since Young got a 1B/DH cameo in between) gives us a data point on how they feel about his short term prospects. Despite that, I'm not convinced that Mervis isn't getting extensive time by next May(the position doesn't have an abundance of options on the market and DH is somewhat unsettled too), but I've definitely lowered my expectations compared to 3 months ago.
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Iowa's regular season runs through September 24th, and they won the first half so they'll be in the playoffs afterward.
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Anyone Playing Immaculate Grid?
Transmogrified Tiger replied to UMFan83's topic in General Baseball Talk
By the same token
