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Transmogrified Tiger

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  1. Transmogrified Tiger
    If(when?) his AVG drops, then his HR and 2B will have to drop, unless by some miracle all his lost hits are singles. You justify trading Lee because what you get in return is greater than what you give. For example, I suggested in a 3 team deal trading Lee and Walker for Bradley, Drew, and Castillo. Castillo is superior to Walker, Drew is likely to equal if not surpass Lee's production next year(this is just putting names to production levels, so disregard Drew's injuries when evaluating this hypothetically), and Bradley is a superb offensive and defensive CF. The team is better offensively because of a trade of Lee in that scenario.
  2. Transmogrified Tiger
    That's Carlos Beltran.
  3. Transmogrified Tiger
    What about something that is proven to exist recently? We couldn't see atoms and such in the 1800s, and therefore couldn't measure or prove their existence, so what does that mean when we did discover them?
  4. Transmogrified Tiger
    Overbay, Milwaukee will likely shop him with Fielder incoming. He's a solid offensive 1B(good-great OBP) that by some metrics was better defensively than Lee this year.
  5. Transmogrified Tiger
    SLG isn't everything, despite what this site preaches. If anything, this site underappreciates SLG as a whole IMO. Of course SLG isn't everything, but it's important, and needs to be considered. I guess you could make the case that Ichiro's marketability in Japan can mitigate his contract size, but that's still something to be concerned about. My point is that if we are going to give up top prospects and best young players for a stud OF, lets get one that's the complete package? Ichiro's EqA and WARP were no better than Todd Walker last year, and he's 32 with a huge contract. For all the talk of his OBP, it was only .350 last year, he doesn't walk alot, which means as he ages his AVG and moreso OBP will be dragged down as he ages. I'll certainly take Ichiro for my team, he's talented in all aspects. But if we're selling the farm for a stud, let's get the most productive player possible, not one who was a Todd Walker clone last year.
  6. Transmogrified Tiger
    Okay, after some fun with Excel, I ranked a bunch of the top QB's by category. Instead of punishing some for not throwing as much as others, I combined the ranks from Attempts and Total Yards. That's what Composite Yardage is. Player QB Rating Composite yardage Comp % YPC TD INT Brohm 1 5 1 2 6 2 Vick 2 7 2 4 7 4 Leinart 3 1.5 5 1 3 5 Olson 4 3.5 3 7 1 1 Stanton 5 3.5 4 5 4 6 Young 6 6 7 3 5 7 Quinn 7 1.5 6 6 2 3 Here's how they stand when you take their average rank: Rank Average Avg Rank Brohm 2.833333333 1 Leinart 3.083333333 2 Olson 3.25 3 Quinn 4.25 4 Vick 4.333333333 5 Stanton 4.583333333 6 Young 5.666666667 7 Obviously the competition for each of them hasn't been equal, so I found the average passing yards per game of their opponents, and multiplied it by the previous average to add in a strength of schedule factor. Rank Average Opp. Avg Total Brohm 2.833333333 221.5714286 627.7857143 Vick 4.333333333 203.3125 881.0208333 Leinart 3.083333333 260.3875 802.8614583 Olson 3.25 262.8375 854.221875 Stanton 4.583333333 242.7875 1112.776042 Young 5.666666667 220.5 1249.5 Quinn 4.25 253.9714286 1079.378571 And here's the final tally of my crazy QB math. Player Total Rank Brohm 627.7857143 1 Leinart 802.8614583 2 Olson 854.221875 3 Vick 881.0208333 4 Quinn 1079.378571 5 Stanton 1112.776042 6 Young 1249.5 7 Obviously this methodology isn't perfect, but it's interesting to look at. Okay, this isn't lining up even in notepad, so if it's that big a deal lemme know and I'll try to sort it out later.
  7. Transmogrified Tiger
    I think so. KC was second only to Coors as far as hitter's parks go a few years back, but they moved the fences back and it became a pitcher's park. Of course this year it was a big hitter's haven, so who knows.
  8. Transmogrified Tiger
    If we're going to give up a ton in return for a megastar corner OF, please get one with an OPS above .800.
  9. Transmogrified Tiger
    I'd be interested to see how strong the defenses are that Leinart and Quinn have faced. The one time I checked a few weeks back, ND had faced 2 of the 10 worst passing defenses in the country, plus more bad ones. Don't know what the case is now, or what USC's has been like.
  10. Transmogrified Tiger
    Pierre was quite unlucky BABIP wise, especially for a guy with his speed. However, even at his best he's not that great, and he'll be overpriced in cash and players. Lofton, on the other hand, is the poster child for BABIP good fortune. I don't want either. is there anyone you have enough positive data for that you would want in center field??? Wilkerson and Bradley are my two favorite choices. Lofton is about to fall off a cliff production wise, and Pierre just isn't a smart choice considering his down year and lack of upside. I'll also take Brady Clark, Drew, or Gary Matthews Jr. EDIT: Jason Michaels, Ryan Church, and maybe even Dave Roberts would be good too.
  11. Transmogrified Tiger
    no worries, he'll start winning these when he's 38 or so. He needs to hire someone to start talking up his leadership abilities, then start hitting for a low 600s OPS, that should do the trick.
  12. Transmogrified Tiger
    Pierre was quite unlucky BABIP wise, especially for a guy with his speed. However, even at his best he's not that great, and he'll be overpriced in cash and players. Lofton, on the other hand, is the poster child for BABIP good fortune. I don't want either. i wonder what the effect of being a slap hitter is on BABIP. Pierre reminds me too much of Neifi. I don't know about slappiness, but generally guys with a ton of speed like Pierre should have a slightly above average BABIP(relative to expected) because they can beat more balls out, players rush plays to get them, etc.
  13. Transmogrified Tiger
    Pierre was quite unlucky BABIP wise, especially for a guy with his speed. However, even at his best he's not that great, and he'll be overpriced in cash and players. Lofton, on the other hand, is the poster child for BABIP good fortune. I don't want either.
  14. Transmogrified Tiger
    Schneider got jobbed.
  15. Transmogrified Tiger
    Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, Isringhausen, Eckstein, Carpenter, King and Mulder account for $63M. Add another $4M if they pick up Suppan's option. The Cards payroll last year was around $90M. I haven't read all the reports, but I did see a few that suggested an increase to $95-96M range was probable going into their new park. Therefore, many think they can easily give Giles $10M a season, and still have money to address their other needs. Assuming they pick up Suppan's option.... 9 guys, 67 mil, best case scenario, 30 million left for 16 players. Workable Signing Giles 10 guys, 77 mil, best case scenario, 20 million left for 15 players. Very difficult. They could get Giles, but that would make the rest of their offseason pretty tight.
  16. Transmogrified Tiger
    The Cards have oodles of money to spend? Don't they have tons of money tied up in Rolen,Pujols,Izzy,Mulder,Carpenter & Edmonds "oodles" is one of the last words I'd use to describe the Cards amount of free cash.
  17. Transmogrified Tiger
    :roll: C'mon now. Its like any other "noun" or "title" that has taken on a life of its own and become a desriptive term. Like "Rollerblading", which is actually in-line skating. Okay, then it's an overused adjective, and one that is sure to cause a lot of unnecessary argumentation due to people interpreting it in wildly different ways.
  18. Transmogrified Tiger
    Stats aren't perfect, but that doesn't mean they aren't the most accurate way of determining something. If using the most accurate way of determining something makes it the end all be all, then so be it I guess. them by themselves AREN't the most accurate way, which is what I'm trying to say. Prime example is the discussion about shef. Would shef put up the numbers expected from him as a Cub? Probably not, a decision made because of gut feeling and human decision making, not stats. Stats would say absolutely trade for sheff, gut feeling would say don't.... My gut feeling says that Nomar would make a heck of a reliever with his arm motion. How in the world does your gut feeling prove you right? Especially on something that hasn't happened?
  19. Transmogrified Tiger
    I agree with your point about bullpens, but the application is difficult. The nature of the bullpen, being that pitchers get so few innings, means year-to-year they can be unpredictable. Take that White Sox bullpen for example. Cotts and Politte were terrible last year, Hermanson was bad, Jenks only threw 20 innings in the minors and was pathetically bad. So how do you build an effective pen when numbers for most relief pitchers can vary wildly?
  20. Transmogrified Tiger
    So, you think the interpretation of "Hendry could be looking for more starting pitching" is "Hendry could be shopping one of his starting pitchers for a bat"? That seems counterintuitive.
  21. Transmogrified Tiger
    Stats aren't perfect, but that doesn't mean they aren't the most accurate way of determining something. If using the most accurate way of determining something makes it the end all be all, then so be it I guess.
  22. Transmogrified Tiger
    That I did not check. People were contending that even though they weren't much(if at all) better than the Cubs, that the ability to score consistently was the reason their offense was helping them win more. Turns out that wasn't true.
  23. Transmogrified Tiger
    Like moorecg I was there, it was so awesome seeing the Stadium go from deafening when Dempster blew the save, to hushed after the slam.
  24. Transmogrified Tiger
    Again, when I checked earlier in the year, the White Sox didn't score runs any more consistently than the Cubs. So they're scoring fewer runs, and they aren't being any more consistent than the Cubs's up and down offense. What's the benefit?
  25. Transmogrified Tiger
    The Cubs don't need to save money on the outfield, if anything they should overpay before they go bargain hunting for the likes of Encarnacion. That line is about as good as it gets for him, given his past and his BABIP this year.
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