Tim

Bulls are a bad matchup for any team that wants to play small and run.

I guess if you want two premier guys at the same position in FA, you just need to be willing to PAY. Possible to do. Wise to do? Probably not. Funny thing is they signed both of the shortstops least likely to stay at shortstop for a combined 17 years.

I can't decide if it's the players guessing they are going to lose this negotiation badly, the teams thinking they are going to lose badly, or both sides hedging their bets.

Asked and received What was it in his profile that drew you to him?

Unfortunately, extending Willson is not a goal for me. He's going to be a 30+ year old catcher with a ton of mileage. Canha is definitely the biggest luxury there. If we don't sign him, we can live with Heyward/Ortega/Hermosillo/Wisdom in the OF until Davis is ready. Alternatively, we could also live without the Donaldson trade to save cash. I hadn't noticed how badly his defense had dropped off last year. That might be a bad sign for a 36 year old infielder.

Okay - on a boring conference call. Let's see if I can get this done during the call. Adding in a couple of trade targets this time. Assumption #1: Try to be at least a fringe playoff team in 2022 Assumption #2: Avoid the QO if at all possible Assumption #3: Try to spend "smart" in FA Assumption #4: Roughly $80M to spend, leaving $10M for veteran relievers & backup C Assumption #5: Universal DH starts in 2022 Assumption #6: SP, SP, OF, SS, OF, 3B, 1B/DH SP: I know TT doesn't think it's possible to snag two prime FA starting pitchers in the same offseason, but I think they could do it like this: Sign one now before 12/1 (preferably Jon Gray, imo). Then sign another after the lockout - my theory is that they will essentially act as two separate and decoupled markets. FA Signing - Jon Gray - 4/$56 ($14M aav) FA Signing - Yusei Kikuchi - 2/$20 ($10M aav) OF: Same process on signing two OF in the same offseason: FA Signing - Seiya Suzuki - 5/$55 ($11M aav) FA Signing - Mark Canha - 2/$24 ($12M aav) IF/DH: This is where things get more fun with trades. Minnesota is rumored to be willing to absorb as much as half of Donaldson's contract to move him. Oakland seems set on trading Matt Olsen - I think there will be a lot of demand, but I'm not sure how much a first baseman will net in a trade. Trade 1: Greg Deichmann + ? for Josh Donaldson (and salary relief) New Player: Josh Donaldson - 2/$24 ($12M aav) Trade 2: Nelson Velazquez + Brailyn Marquez + lower ranked prospects for Matt Olsen New Player: Matt Olsen - $12M + arb3 ($12M aav) Trade 3: David Bote for Didi Gregorius New Player: Didi Gregorius - $15M ($12M aav after subtracting Bote) ---------------------------- New Lineup: C: Contreras 1B: Olsen 2B: Madrigal / Hoerner SS: Gregorius / Hoerner 3B: Donaldson / Wisdom OF: Happ OF: Canha OF: Suzuki DH: Schwindel / Wisdom B/OF: Ortega B/OF: Heyward B/IF: Hoerner B/IF: Wisdom B/C: someone SP: Gray SP: Hendricks SP: Miley SP: Kikuchi SP: Alzolay / Steele / Thompson / Kilian RP: Cast of thousands + vet or two From a dollars perspective, I blew the budget a little bit here. (14 + 10 + 11 + 12 + 12 + 12 + 12) = $83. That puts the Cubs around a $185M payroll, which is easily maintained for them and still gives them flexibility going forward. In addition, it doesn't commit the Cubs to any long-term contracts other than Suzuki at only $11m per year. But that's also a pretty deep + talented team of bats. The rotation is pretty weak, but has some potential if they can unlock something in Kikuchi. I fully anticipate Kilian grabbing a spot by the end of the year, too. Also, Alzolay is just a good cutter/change away from being a really good starter - there's always hope there.

Nick's definitely in the conversation as long as you include QO players. My last list was just guys without the QO.

Drive border patrol crazy and put one in El Paso. Or really piss them off and put it in Juarez. Go back to San Diego. Salt Lake City Brooklyn / Long Island 2nd Chicago team Edmonton / Calgary Toronto Montreal St Louis Portland Monterrey There are a whole bunch of options of varying viability. But with the way that the NFL both generates and shares revenues, it's a lot easier for those franchises to be viable.

Am I just totally forgetting a 1st Canadian team?

I agree that it was an unrealistic exercise to try and fill every hole through FA. But hey, it was very successful in helping me to avoid working much last night. :)

Yeah, that's why in the post this morning I talked about moving Mills. I really just wanted to free up a roster spot since he doesn't fit the mold of what I'd be looking for in next year's rotation.

- The downfall of this team is going to be position player depth. Seager and Wisdom give 3B some depth but SS, 2B (I guess Hoerner makes two), and 1B are on an island. Feels like they’re counting on the starters to be horses but only the 35 YO Seager’s played a full season I didn't list the backups. Just on the current team, you've got Bote, Alcantara, Rivas, Ortega, Hermosillo, Deichmann. Depth at 1B is not much of an issue as you've got Scwhindel, Wisdom & Rivas all easily capable of playing it. Now...quality depth may be a different question. Depth at 2B is really not an issue with Madrigal, Hoerner & Bote (and Alcantara) Depth at SS is a big, stinking, hairy issue with just Hoerner & Alcantara there. I thought about addressing the SS depth, but since I was limiting myself in that post to just looking at the FA w/o qualifying offers, there were absolutely no options anywhere on the list.

Also, swap out Nelson Cruz for Canha for hitters. Adds more flexibility in the field, fewer 40 year olds on the team, etc.

Looking at the pitching again this morning and I might skip Stroman, but add the combination of DeSclafani and Kikuchi. Then go full-on Dodgers with getting pitchers extra rest, doing some piggybacking, and having extra guys for inevitable injuries and performance issues. That gives a ton of SP depth with: Gray Hendricks DeSclafani Miley Kikuchi Alzolay Steele Mills Thompson Kilian I'd be very tempted to see if I could get a lottery ticket in return for Mills, though.

I find myself trying to avoid doing more actual work this evening, so, here is offseason plan #54: Assumption #1: Try to be at least a fringe playoff team in 2022 Assumption #2: Avoid the QO if at all possible Assumption #3: Try to spend "smart" in FA Assumption #4: Roughly $80M to spend, leaving $10M for veteran relievers & backup C Assumption #5: Universal DH starts in 2022 Let's assume we need to fill the following spots: SP, SP, OF, SS, OF, 3B, 1B/DH Top FA not tied to QO (MLBTR rankings with estimated contracts) (bolded are my primary interests): #4: Kris Bryant (6/$160) #5: Kevin Gausman (6/$138) #9: Max Scherzer (3/$120) #11: Marcus Stroman (5/$110) #12: Javy Baez (5/$100) #13: Starling Marte (4/$80) #15: Kyle Schwarber (4/$70) #18: Carlos Rodon (1/$25) #19: Jon Gray (4/$56) #20: Seiya Suzuki (5/$55) #21: Anthony Rizzo (3/$45) #22: Anthony DeSclafani (3/$42) #24: Avisail Garcia (3/$36) #25: Jorge Soler (3/$36) -- as an aside, more than 1/3 of the list to this point is recent Cubs #26: Alex Wood (3/$30) #27: Steven Matz (3/$27) #28: Kendall Graveman (3/$27) #29: Kenley Jansen (2/$26) #30: Mark Canha (2/$24) #31: Kyle Seager (2/$24) #34: Yusei Kikuchi (2/$20) #35: Eduardo Escobar (2/$20) #38: Corey Knebel (2/$18) #39: Alex Cobb (2/$16) #41: Eddie Rosario (2/$15) #42: Hector Neris (2/$15) #43: Jonathan Villar (2/$14) #44: Mark Melancon (2/$14) #45: Ryan Tepera (2/$12) #46: Corey Kluber (1/$12) #47: Nelson Cruz (1/$12) #48: Danny Duffy (1/$10) #49: Yan Gomes (2/$10) Okay - that's a handy list. For starting pitchers, I want to add two pitchers who have been durable, and good to very good, to anchor the rotation. To this end, I'm going to go with Stroman and Gray. That's $22M + $14M to my budget, or just over half the total available. That puts me at $34M more to spend. Ideally, I'm looking for around four position players to create a really deep roster, but three players would probably suffice. I'd really like to bring Schwarber home to provide a bit of lefty thump in the lineup, but the $17.5M is going to make it hard. Kyle Seager is a great fit at $12M. Add on Seiya Suzuki at $11M. That puts me a little over budget at $39.5 for position players. As I went through the options and building out the lineup with those choices, I'm going to end up with most of my proven power on the left side in Happ, Schwarber & Seager. So I'm going to switch from Schwarber to Nelson Cruz at $12M and hit the total $70M budget precisely. That gives me something like: SP: Stroman SP: Hendricks SP: Gray SP: Miley SP: Alzolay / Steele / Mills / Thompson C: Contreras 1B: Schwindel 2B: Madrigal 3B: Seager SS: Hoerner OF: Happ OF: Suzuki OF: Wisdom / Davis DH: Cruz That provides a pretty deep lineup with some solid thump...if Schwindel can provide better than league average production at 1B. If he doesn't, it's probably the cheapest position to fill at the deadline if they're in contention. Also, Rivas can probably come in and provide at least a decent OBP and defense at first base in the short term if Frank tanks. Not to mention Wisdom would be able to cover it once Davis comes up. That team should be in contention at the deadline in a fairly weak NL Central. The rotation should keep them in most games and has depth available with the various options at the fifth spot plus Kilian later in the year. The older rookies from last year are probably the most likely gaps in the lineup, but it's otherwise balanced with contact & power, left & right, etc. I don't think it's likely that we'll fill all the holes through FA. It's also unlikely that they'd sign both Stroman and Gray. It would be much more likely that they'd only sign one of them plus one of the higher risk SP. Given Hendricks' collapse last year, though, if we really want to aim for the playoffs in 2022 we probably need two highly predictable/durable adds to the rotation.

So it's a Tuesday.

Breaking news...the Bulls might be really good.

Interesting question, TT. At various times so far this offseason, I think I've leaned each of those directions at different times. At the moment, I'd probably lean towards the depth choice (A) and keep my options open for trades at the deadline.

damn - we're all doomed.

I don't think we've talked about it yet...and it obviously worked out for the Bears...but punting when down 10 in the fourth quarter is mind-numbingly stupid.

Not I. The phantom clipping call that called back the TD was the difference in the game. Or the taunting call. Or many other bs calls.

That was a really fun 4th quarter, despite the loss. If only the team played with that same sense of urgency all game long. Also, these refs were horrible and were at least a two point difference in this game.

doink -------- nevermind

whoa - what a drive

what the hell was that call?