Tim

Since that money came off the books after 2018 anyway...why?

I only suggested it as a "F it, let's win this year" kind of thing where I'm trading Russell to get Archer.

Using the Japanese media for that? Why wouldn't Theo just use Gammons as his shill as he usually does? Yeah, true. Most likely they are just pursuing every path they can to strengthen the team.

Smyly's contract is no greater than that of a glorified Duensing. They aren't going to tie their hand behind their back for this year's rotation just because he might look like a rotation candidate next year in his first full season back from TJS. I'm not saying that means Darvish, but there's no reason to shy away from a multi-year solution. Any of the starters could fall on their face or have their arms explode, or most likely, Smyly doesn't look like a guy worth guaranteeing anything but relief innings to. As far as Harper goes, I'm thinking the bite of the luxury tax plus a plethora of top of market options keep him from going that high. I could be wrong though. Its more Chatwood than Smyly, for me. Again, they COULD make it work, but the Chatwood move seems odd to me, if Darvish is the other addition. I do think Corbin would have been a better tag team partner, in this scenario. Of course, Corbin is still in Arizona currently too. I'm really not sure I see the problem. Given the arms we're talking about, the odds of everyone being healthy a full year are pretty low in the first place. It would also be easy enough to put Smyly in the pen or the Monty role and have Monty move to full-time reliever or trade him. There are a ton of options if we have the guys in house. We are in the middle of our (fairly lengthy) window. We should maximize our chances and worry about fitting everyone in a role next year.

You aren't going to limit yourself to injury rehabs and rentals for this last rotation spot simply because you guaranteed Smyly 5 million next year. You probably couldn't offer Harper a 40 million AAV, but I'm skeptical his market goes that high, and even that isn't so difficult with a move of any consequence. I think it'll go over 40 personally. But, its not just Smyly and his 5, its Chatwood and his 12.7 too. To me, it'd seem more realistic to have found a Corbin or something like that, on a smaller trade, to fill that 5th spot and save the added money for next year. I really think they're working hard to add another guy in the playoff rotation ahead of Chatwood.

They could also be leaking this to help with Archer/Salazar talks. I certainly wouldn't be against a Darvish signing. He's a hell of a pitcher. I hope the contract doesn't get that ridiculous, of course. But he makes this rotation damn solid if he's healthy. Essentially, they could sign a backup catcher afterwards and call it an offseason. I'd be pretty happy keeping all our MLB assets as depth. Once we got to the playoffs, the rotation would have Darvish, Quintana, Lester & Hendricks. Chatwood & Smyly would be free to join the pen to add depth there. If you feel that we've got enough bullpen to win the division, then the playoff pen should be plenty deep when adding those guys.

The 2018 salary wouldn't be that bad, tbh. I'm pretty sure that's under the luxury tax (but without room for midseason moves). It's the 2019 re-signing Machado and also adding Harper that just can't happen unless Heyward opts out and Zobrist retires.

Let's push some chips to the middle... - Any two pitching prospects in our system plus Ademan and the rights to Araujo for Machado. -- obviously a short term move, but gives us the option of retaining Machado or signing Harper next offseason - Russell + stuff for Archer -- I hate losing Russell, but including him likely makes this much more doable - Almora/Happ and any two remaining prospects with a pulse for Yelich -- Can we please get in on fleecing Jeter? - Avila for backup catcher -- Contreras would be the only single point of failure on the team - this is about reducing risk CF: Yelich 3B: Bryant 1B: Rizzo SS: Machado LF: Schwarber C: Contreras RF: Heyward 2B: Baez C: Avila 2B/OF: Zobrist 2B/3B/PH: La Stella OF: Happ/Almora SP: Archer SP: Quintana SP: Lester SP: Hendricks SP: Chatwood/Smyly RP: Cishek RP: Morrow RP: Strop RP: Edwards RP: Wilson RP: Monty RP: Grimm/Alvarez/Maples/etc. For 2019, try to extend Machado and add Harper and raise a middle finger to the luxury tax. Everyone else except Wilson would still be under control/contract. Convince Heyward he'll be happier as a starter elsewhere and if he doesn't opt out, then trade him for whatever salary relief can be had. Hope Zobrist retires or asks for a trade due to lack of playing time. CF: Yelich 3B: Bryant RF: Harper SS: Machado 1B: Rizzo C: Contreras LF: Schwarber 2B: Baez

4th or 5th? Morrow, Strop and Carl are all easily better. Monty may even rank ahead of him for me/some and if Wilson decides not to be a bum he could be better. All those guys would comfortably fit within the same tier for me. Morrow would stand alone if he's healthy and pitching like he did for the Dodgers, but there's enough uncertainty there that I wouldn't place him above the other guys yet.

That sucks.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/pirates-acquire-rule-5-pick-nick-burdi-from-phillies-for-international-pool-space.html

I was honestly surprised his numbers were that good when I looked him up this morning. I'm okay with this, but want to see how the rest of the pieces fit.

These winter meetings kinda sucked.

I think there's room to not think of K's as the end-all-be-all, and still be pretty concerned about Kintzler not striking anyone out. Out of 109 qualified relievers the last 2 years, he's 108th in K%. He'll need a multi-year deal and he's 33 now. That profile can go quickly, and if they continue to play with the DefinitelyNotJuicedBall, it adds even more risk. His velocity last year was as good as it's ever been across the board and he allowed just 5 homers in 71 1/3 innings with the juiced ball. He's 33 and he could absolutely see the results fade quickly, but it's a risk I'd be fine taking on say a 2-year deal, $12-16 million deal (and ideally just a 1-year deal, of course). If he doesn't have a Proven Closer uplift on his price, I wouldn't mind him as a #3 pen acquisition at all.

100% agree. but it's starting to feel that way. I'm confused by all the hate for Kintzler. Is everyone that obsessed with the K rate? He's been a groundball machine his entire career, rarely walks guys, and doesn't allow many dongs. He's a FIP beater and his consistent low 3s ERA isn't fluky. We're talking about a 306 2/3-inning sample of him putting together a 3.26 ERA out of the bullpen. And his game would work better than literally everywhere else with the Cubs' elite groundball defense, and the bullpen is already full of power arms that miss bats. More than anything they could use a guy that doesn't issue walks, while also having a great track record of run prevention. There are a few guys I'd still rather have, but Kintzler would be a really solid addition to the bullpen. For a closer, I want elite performance, not good performance. I'd be happy to have him in a middle relief role, just not the highest leverage innings.

These offers for Yelich are pretty crazy, IMO. He'd make us better, but not THAT much better. Happ + Almora in CF is pretty comfortably a 3 win platoon with significant upside. Unless you think that Yelich will find more power outside of FL, he pretty much is who he is. That's a really good, consistent 4+ win player. But you're sacrificing depth and flexibility just by trading those two. Adding in Monty and minor leaguers or Russell/Baez just doesn't do it for me. Now, going back to TT's idea, if they would go for something like us taking on Volquez's bad salary + Yelich in return for Happ or Almora + minor league players, then I'd be really happy with the deal. That probably isn't enough, but we simply don't need Yelich as much as other teams.

Cards fans are going to be disappointed when Pham is merely ordinary this year. I also hear him get called a young player all the time, but he'll play the entire season at 30 years old.

100% agree. but it's starting to feel that way. is Reed supposed to be close to signing with someone or something? Well, he was linked to a team, then they overpaid on Tommy Hunter.

This doesn't really deserve its own thread; from MLBTR:

I'll pimp this site again: https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-chicago-cubs-info/

He would have made a crapton more money to get his tjs done, miss 2018, pitch to capability in 2019 in Japan and come over at pretty much the same $200M pitcher after that. In those two years, he would have made millions in Japan in addition to the bigger salary when coming over the US.

Daaaammmmnnn

I wonder if they're looking at Smyly as being a reliever for the playoffs this year and in the mix for the rotation in 2019. Basically, what I wanted to sign Pineda to do.

Well, at least nobody will question when these guys go on a 10-day DL assignment.

Oh, and I'm totally done with the John Jay experience.