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SABR Gamer

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Everything posted by SABR Gamer

  1. SABR Gamer
    This. Depending on where you are on the win spectrum, it's actually beneficial to have the less consistent team. There is more potential upside variance. A team projected to win 92 games wants less variance, but a team projected to win 85 loves the variance. It's not as simple as "consistent = better" because that's just not true. It's not a bad idea to build your team to have a mix of each type of player. People. Pay attention to this post. Masterfully said. Well, yeah, who was saying you should or could build a team of only the hypothetically consistent Rizzo vs. someone streakier like Soriano? This tangent was born out of the idea of whether Rizzo's projected output would be more valuable than 6 weeks of great/good LaHair, and I think it's safe to choose the former. We're talking an extreme and extremely limited type of "streak" here. I think he's getting at the fact that you were wrong for saying that "consistent > inconsistent" is basically a known fact and that you would be crazy to think otherwise.
  2. SABR Gamer
    Vitters. Proximity to the big leagues and my belief that he WILL end up being a decent or better major league hitter.
  3. SABR Gamer
    In what way is .285/.400 similar to .354/.491...? No.
  4. SABR Gamer
    This. Depending on where you are on the win spectrum, it's actually beneficial to have the less consistent team. There is more potential upside variance. A team projected to win 92 games wants less variance, but a team projected to win 85 loves the variance. It's not as simple as "consistent = better" because that's just not true. It's not a bad idea to build your team to have a mix of each type of player.
  5. SABR Gamer
    So you're saying we have to draft an ace next year with that top pick and then trade rape the marlins for a stud, in this case Stanton. Done. Cabrera wasn't on the Tigers in 06.
  6. SABR Gamer
    Kyle hates this move because it contradicts his crusade.
  7. SABR Gamer
    Boner
  8. SABR Gamer
    So Maples comes in 3rd last vote and now nobody is voting for him?
  9. SABR Gamer
  10. SABR Gamer
    No. But 25 is already in the middle of prime. I'm not going to give him a lot of projection credit beyond what he did last year in his age-24 prime season. All three seasons ago or more. There's a point where that stops being the most relevant data when considering his projections. How many MCL/PCL tears do you need before you start to worry about the long-term impact on a guy's legs? I'm pretty much tired of trying to find undervalued commodities this way. Hurt? Fine. Previously good but recently bad? Fine. But both? That's just a sucker's bet. No chance those 2 might have some sort of relation to each other, huh?
  11. SABR Gamer
    Seems roughly about right, outside of the defense like you mentioned. Would be disappointed if that ended up being Castro's final line and I guess I'd be fine with a .800ish OPS out of Rizzo in his first full year. But that record is about what I think they will be, this team is going to struggle to hit for power again and score runs consistently I feel like. The team isn't even finished yet. What? You mean the offseason doesn't end in December!?!?
  12. SABR Gamer
    I keep forgetting he was an All-Star two years ago. He finished that season with a -0.2 bWAR. Has to be one of the worst All-Stars ever. Even worse than Mike Williams? *Cough* Brian Lahair *Cough* Who is Brian Lahair? P.S. (LaHair was better)
  13. SABR Gamer
    We missed out big time. [expletive] Garza. If he stays healthy, could we have done Garza + Wood for the same package?
  14. SABR Gamer
    No way in hell the players would ever allow it to happen. Probably not, that's true. Not sure I'd be surprised if the owners tried hard, though. Yeah, they are always going to try. In the end it won't happen though because the players will never allow it. They want to continue to have the largest contracts in American sports.
  15. SABR Gamer
    No way in hell the players would ever allow it to happen.
  16. SABR Gamer
    If we're talking perceived, Almora because the K questions, much as I like him, were always there with Brett Jackson. Of course, there's a measure of SNTS involved there, as we really don't know what Almora will offer. But perception-wise, the K issues were always dragging Brett down. What about higher ceiling, period? Not just perception-wise? I would guess still Almora, but still asking.
  17. SABR Gamer
    Almora. I think his ceiling's being undersold. Not having any elite tools isn't the same as not having any plus tools. Yeah, Almora is above average across the board. Brett just seems similar in that way. Almora doesn't K like Brett, but he doesn't walk like Brett either. Plus, Jackson had put up a .939 OPS to finish 2011, and was named the #32 prospect in baseball. Do you think Almora will be ranked higher than that? Obviously now Almora is a much better prospect, as Jackson's progression fell into the worse case scenario zone in 2012. ETA: Almora's hit tool absolutely destroys Jackson. Stating the obvious, but I'd assume that's a big part of why his ceiling is higher.
  18. SABR Gamer
    Aren't the Dodger Blue and Cubs Blue the same color?
  19. SABR Gamer
    Question: Higher (perceived?) upside: pre-2012 Brett Jackson or present day Albert Almora?
  20. SABR Gamer
    I have Brett at #6 right now. If Jackson's swing change works and cuts his Ks down significantly, you could argue him as high as our #2 prospect. I mean, assuming the changes work, you could maybe argue he's #1 if you value being close to big league ready more than future upside (Jackson has great upside, it's just not as high as Soler/Baez). Those are huge ifs though, and he's still more likely to be bad than good, but I at least would like to hope there is a chance Brett could end up being an above average regular. I am really praying for this because it would make this season a hell of a lot more interesting if Brett could be close to a 2-3 win player.
  21. SABR Gamer
    I really want Edwin Jackson. I like him more than I should, not sure why.
  22. SABR Gamer
    Ahh, okay. My bad.
  23. SABR Gamer
    Couldn't it be viewed as somewhat of a slap in the face when Big Legue Teams acquire Japan's top professional players and refer to them as "prospects?" These guys have had successful careers, but to us they may as well have been playing for the Albuquerque Isotopes. Japan's number two, though a distant number two behind us in professional baseball. Kind of like if they were to have Bryan LaHair in their prospect rankings. Or not at all.
  24. SABR Gamer
    I have Soler #1 on my list, too. Too late for the discussion in the #1 vote. But big power, disciplined swing, good contact stroke, short quick stroke. Seems to have good personality, highly responsive to coaching and a really motivated worker. Soler and Baez have things in common, but they are kind of polar opposites, too. The very controlled, anti-K, small-stride HR hitter versus the wild, undisciplined, big-leg-kick HR hitter. It's been a struggle for Baez to hit .200 at Daytona and AFL, and at both stops he's been unable to get his OBP over .250. I love his potential, but I think the bust potential seems so much higher than for Soler. When a guy is whiffing so much and has so much trouble OBP'ing at or over .250, it makes me worry that he's got trouble with movement. And guys who have trouble with movement don't always adjust well to the better pitching in the majors than in A-ball. I like Baez a lot, but I think he's got so many more failure flags that I can't put him as high as a Soler who has premium power but doesn't have so many failure flags. .250 at both stops? He had a .333/.383/.596 line in A-ball.
  25. SABR Gamer
    D-Backs took Peralta.
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