XZero771679666304

Because high strikeout and low BA don't matter if you have a good OBP/SLG. Strikeout totals are meaningless. BA doesn't tell you much of everything. Unlike Mark Bellhorn, Dunn actually has a long history of putting up good numbers. He's not a perfect player, far from it. But I don't think anybody is claiming such a thing. He is, however, a perfect matchup with the Cubs biggest needs (LH power bat with OBP ability) offensively. What do you make of the fact that his OBP and SLG have declined each of the past 2 years? I'm not blasting on Dunn, but his numbers have been on the downward trend.

And just a couple of years ago he was out there just for his contract. Amazing. Wasnt he just put on revocable waivers? Meaning he could be pulled back, they were just seeking a deal after the trade deadline? I cant remember. No, it was irrevocable waivers.

I definitely would not use such a threshold for keeping the job. Grossman should HAVE to be good this week to keep the job. Bad Rex = Early playoff exit for the Bears. I'm becoming less and less convinced that the good Rex was anything but a flash in the pan. I agree he has to be good, but I don't see how using QB rating as the determining factor makes any sense. What if he throws a meaningless hail mary int before half that costs him the rating but otherwise has a good game? Or what if the INT is a WR's fault? Sorry, I wasn't advocating the QB rating thing, just saying he has to be good. Another 0 TD and 2-3 INT game and Rex needs to be holding a clipboard for the rest of the year.

I definitely would not use such a threshold for keeping the job. Grossman should HAVE to be good this week to keep the job. Bad Rex = Early playoff exit for the Bears. I'm becoming less and less convinced that the good Rex was anything but a flash in the pan.

No, but none of the FA pitcher are worth what they will be paid. Plus his game is poorly suited to Wrigley. Meche, Jennings, Westbrook and Padilla are all better options.

yeah, i'd much rather pay gil meche 4/$40 to put up a 4.50 era than pay marshall $300k to put up a 4.70 era. Marshall putting up a 4.70 would be quite the improvement. Marshall: 125 2/3 ip 1.52 WHIP 5.59 ERA Marmol: 77 IP 1.69 WHIP 6.08 ERA Guzman: 56 IP 1.88 WHIP 7.39 ERA Mateo: 45 2/3 IP 1.62 WHIP 5.32 ERA Smallish sample size, but none of their peripherals were at all impressive (other than Guzman's K/9, which still wasn't spectacular), and I don't see much that would lead me to believe that any of them would improve to even Gil Meche levels next season. They were all bad, really bad. If Guzman could stay healthy and get it together he could be good, but I personally don't believe he will. Counting on any of these guys next season would be just the type of irresponsible behavior that Hendry has been blasted for in the past. YES, a guy like Gil Meche is probably a better bet than any of the kids we saw last season, save Rich Hill. Sure Meche is no superstar, but he has never posted numbers as bad any of the four kids did in 2006. Even if we sign Schmidt (which is far from a given), the rotation would look like this: Zambrano Schmidt Hill (borderline ?) Miller (?) Prior (?) Mateo/Marshall/Guzman/Marmol (????) Unfortunately, at least one Lilly/Meche guy will have to be signed, or a Jennings/Westbrook traded for. I would like to see one of the kids get a chance, but with all the potential question marks we have in the rotation, I don't see how that would be even a remotely good idea. Is it worth 10 million compared to 370K? Probably not, but it's not our money. Pitching is at a premium right now, and unfortunately the Cubs need it. All good points. I thought Marshall looked pretty good for a few starts last year. Not saying that means he's great, but I think he's got a chance. If it comes down to having to plug in Sean or Angel in as the #5 guy, then I think we're alright. If we start needing to put both in the rotation, then yeah it starts to look pretty thin. I think that the bottom line is that two pitchers need to be acquired.

yeah, i'd much rather pay gil meche 4/$40 to put up a 4.50 era than pay marshall $300k to put up a 4.70 era. Marshall putting up a 4.70 would be quite the improvement. Marshall: 125 2/3 ip 1.52 WHIP 5.59 ERA Marmol: 77 IP 1.69 WHIP 6.08 ERA Guzman: 56 IP 1.88 WHIP 7.39 ERA Mateo: 45 2/3 IP 1.62 WHIP 5.32 ERA Smallish sample size, but none of their peripherals were at all impressive (other than Guzman's K/9, which still wasn't spectacular), and I don't see much that would lead me to believe that any of them would improve to even Gil Meche levels next season. They were all bad, really bad. If Guzman could stay healthy and get it together he could be good, but I personally don't believe he will. Counting on any of these guys next season would be just the type of irresponsible behavior that Hendry has been blasted for in the past. YES, a guy like Gil Meche is probably a better bet than any of the kids we saw last season, save Rich Hill. Sure Meche is no superstar, but he has never posted numbers as bad any of the four kids did in 2006. Even if we sign Schmidt (which is far from a given), the rotation would look like this: Zambrano Schmidt Hill (borderline ?) Miller (?) Prior (?) Mateo/Marshall/Guzman/Marmol (????) Unfortunately, at least one Lilly/Meche guy will have to be signed, or a Jennings/Westbrook traded for. I would like to see one of the kids get a chance, but with all the potential question marks we have in the rotation, I don't see how that would be even a remotely good idea. Is it worth 10 million compared to 370K? Probably not, but it's not our money. Pitching is at a premium right now, and unfortunately the Cubs need it.

True, that said though, I'll take Ted Lilly for a #4, or maybe a #3 over the likes of Gooz, Marmol, or Mateo any day of the week. He might be overpaid, but he is still an improvement. It's not our money, so if the Trib wants to spend it then let 'em. Lord knows we aren't going to improve from that steaming pile of crap known as the Cubs farm system. I don't care if the cubs spend the money either, what I do care about is HOW the cubs spend the money. For example, Gooz/Marmol + Lugo + Floyd>>>> Lilly + Izturis. I would agree, but I can't say I'd agree with counting on Gooz/Marmol to effectively fill a rotation slot all year.

Chris Denorfia is not an attractive man. The uniforms, on the other hand, look pretty good (aside from the font).

I may be being redundant here, but looking at Lilly's splits he's: A fly ball pitcher who gives up a bunch of HR Markedly worse during the day Worse on grass Worse in open stadiums Looks like a recipe for disaster to me.

Doesn't he have pretty extreme splits vs. RHP and LHP? I like him, but if the Cubs acquired him, wouldn't Murton have to kiss most of his PT goodbye? EDIT: Yup, his OPS vs RHP is over 200 points higher than vs. LHP. He sure wouldn't platoon with Jones, so murton would be the guy. That is unless Jones or Murton is dealt for pitching.

Not if you're willing to pay 9 to 10 million per year.

Ugh fine :) In 06 his ERA vs Bos/NYY was 4.55 and 4.31 on the season. So pitching against those two teams slightly hurt his ERA. In 05 his ERA vs Bos/NYY was 5.11 and 5.56 on the season. So pitching against those two teams slightly helped his ERA. In 04 his ERA vs Bos/NYY was 3.99 and 4.06 on the season. So pitching against those two teams slightly helped his ERA. The net affect is that a claim that pitching against Bos/NYY adversely affected his ERA is untrue. I thought you were debunking that coming to the NL would help him? He just did, I think. I was debunking the belief that you need to take into consideration that Lilly pitched against the BoSox and Yank's offenses, implying that they had an adverse affect on his overall numbers. Over the last three years that is clearly not true. I know, I thought it was pretty clear.

Ugh fine :) In 06 his ERA vs Bos/NYY was 4.55 and 4.31 on the season. So pitching against those two teams slightly hurt his ERA. In 05 his ERA vs Bos/NYY was 5.11 and 5.56 on the season. So pitching against those two teams slightly helped his ERA. In 04 his ERA vs Bos/NYY was 3.99 and 4.06 on the season. So pitching against those two teams slightly helped his ERA. The net affect is that a claim that pitching against Bos/NYY adversely affected his ERA is untrue. I thought you were debunking that coming to the NL would help him? He just did, I think.

I guess I was speaking more in general than about Greg specifically. Even so, the worst case scenario with guys like Maddux, Meche and co. just aren't as bad as with our kids. Hell, we don't even know if Rich Hill is going to consistently perform next season (though I think so), much less guys like M/M/M and Guzman, who put up -lets face it - really bad numbers last year. Counting on any of those four to give you even 150 innings at even a 5.00 era is a risky proposition at best. Even if the Cubs were to land Schmidt (big if), Hendry still has to acquire a cheap(ish) innings-eater with some kind of track record.

Myth. How do you figure? A 23 year old has more of a change to progress than a 40 year old does. Guzman, Miller, and Marshall are all decent bets to put up at least a 4.50 ERA. And it's not like 4.50 is good. It's not. Aot of people here poo-poo every free agent starter out ther who has a 4+ era saying that any of our kids could do it, that is far from a safe bet. IMO, any of Guzman/Mateo/Marshall/Marmol are just as likely to post a 5.5-6.00 era as a 4.5. All four of them were in the 5.3-6+ range last year. At least if you sign a guy who has consistently put up a 4.50, you can expect him to do it again with a fair bit of probability. Honestly, we can't say any of our kids are a "decent bet" to do it. Sure they might improve, or they may be even worse. A 4.50 ERA is nothing great, but signing a guy likely to give you that over 180-200 innings is is a much safer bet to help the team than counting on the kids. I'm sure that after the total unpredictability of the past couple seasons, Hendry is going to go with a known commodity, even if that commodity isn't the hottest.

NSBB is just like elementary school! Agreed. And just think, last offseason everyone was going wild over some barely PG-13 photos of attractive women. This offseason, it's cookies and egg nog. Next year.....? Bert and Enrie..........weeeeeeeeeeee My vote goes for this. http://images.channeladvisor.com/Sell/SSProfiles/30059209/Images/yip-yip.jpg Those aliens creeped the hell out of me when I was a little kid.

Or..... 62 AB .371/.400/.548/.948 Guess who? Neifi Perez's stint with the Cubs in September 2004.

Those statistics aren't very important at all, especially RBI and R which are almost completely worthless. SB has some value, but Soriano gets himself out on the bases so much that he doesn't exactly provide a ton of value with his baserunning. How the hell are RBI and R almost completely worthless? Is VORP, Isod, Ipod, Ihop, PMS better ways to judge a player? :lol: RBI and runs are team dependent stats. A player depends mostly on his teammates to drive him in for runs, and to get on base in front of him for RBI. They are two stats that the individual player has the least direct control of, unless they hit 100+ homers every year. Think about Derrek Lee in 2005. Nearly 100 XBH, a batting title, and only 107 RBI? The team around him wasn't very good. You should judge a player by the things he has control of: AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS. I am not a huge sabremetric guy, and some stats being thrown around these days are ridiculously circuitous in their calculation, but things like RC and VORP do tell more about a player than RBI and R. Like pitchers, where stats like Wins are totally overrated. All a pitcher can do is go out and hold the other team down as best he can, and its up to his offense to win the game. Just ask Roger Clemens. Many of the old standard stats like R, RBI, Wins, Losses, etc. are next to useless for objectively evaluating individual performance.

Mmmmmmmm.......Egg Nog. Good with rum, or without rum and served with rum balls on the side. But I can only drink so much of the stuff. Plus, my egg nog consumption has decreased dramatically since I started reading the nutritional information labels on what I eat/drink.

:shock: HOLY SCHNICKEES! This market may be worse than the ARod market was.

Good. That way Houston can't afford him.

Lugo is a much larger upgrade over Izturis than guys like Meche, Batista, and Marquis would be over Guzman/Marshall/Mateo/Marmol. Why wouldn't we want to spend the money where it would help us most? I don't know why people keep talking about Guzman like he is a rotation possibility. Has he looked anything like a ML starter at any point in the past couple years? Not that I've seen. I hope I am proven wrong, but I think the Gooz is cooked.

You are assuming the Yankees are dying to keep him. That's a bold assumption. A rather safe one, as well. The Yankees aren't stupid. All that has to happen is for King George to get impulsive when he gets irritated with ARod. I don't think the assumption is that safe at all.

I'm on board with that idea. I just took a look at the potential free agent shortstops after the 2007 season. The list isn't pretty: ARod could opt out. True. But it would be tough for him to walk away from a guaranteed 3 years and $81M, don't you think? Depends on how miserable the Yanks fans/NY media make him this year.