Myth. How do you figure? A 23 year old has more of a change to progress than a 40 year old does. Guzman, Miller, and Marshall are all decent bets to put up at least a 4.50 ERA. And it's not like 4.50 is good. It's not. 4.50 is alot better than your making it out to be. This is the same statement that was been thrown around when Glendon Rusch was signed to his extention. If last year proved anything, it was that young players don't necessarily translate into an improvement. In fact, the Rusch of 2005 was quite a bit better than any of the 2006 rookie starters. (Its too bad the Rusch of 2006 was horrible.) Another example was Niefi Perez last year. He was widely considered the worst hitter in all of baseball, it turned out that Ronnie Cedeno may be throwing his hat in the competition. 4.50 sucks. It's nothing worth paying a guy millions for. I'd rather have a 5.00 ERA at league minimum. Young players won't necessarily improve, but 41 year olds never do. That's my point. Guzman (for example) is as likely to blow up as Maddux, but the odds of Maddux having a sub-4 ERA as a Cub next season are longer than Guzman's given that last season was his first full season in a while. One is signifigantly cheaper than the other. One is signifigantly younger that the other. Save the money. Hmmm....I understand your point, and I think it most applies to Marshall since he was the guy who actually showed some promise at times. Gooz, on the other hand, was a flaming disaster. I didn't see anything last year but a guy who has spent years & years in our system and still has no control over any of his pitches.