dew1679666265
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Everything posted by dew1679666265
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Yeah, if Sappelt's a corner guy only in the majors then he's probably a 4th OF as his ceiling. A good one, but still a 4th OF. You're right that the trade is still really good, though.
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I was saying that mainly to point out how averse I am to giving more than 5 years and big money to a pitcher. I'd have been ok with giving that contract to Pujols, and I'd be willing to give a huge contract to one FA pitcher next offseason, but there's too much risk to give it to 2 of them - especially if fewer than we expect hit the market and bidding wars ensue. The rotation would look pretty good, but that offense is kind of bad. Prince and Castro are the best two hitters - and the only legitimately good ones - and then you have a 31 year old Soto, a developing BJax, an aging DeJesus, and Barney. That corner OF better be really good if we're going to be very competitive for anything other than .500.
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I think that was before we found out how good the Marshall trade actually was. My guess is he was talking specifically about the Reed and Corpas signings, and maybe the Stewart trade. He has made a lot of Hendry:Theo/Jed correlations on his twitter feed, though.
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Interesting tweet from Bruce Miles:
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He's signed for just over $1 million. The problem with Reed is that he's old (35), has had nagging back injuries, and had a ridiculously large amount of luck last year to get the line he had. Rob pointed out in a front page article that if you normalize Reed's luck from last year, he'd end up with a roughly .630 OPS. EDIT: The exact numbers would be 0.252/0.295/0.396. So I was underselling him a bit, as his normalized luck OPS was .691.
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Levine is reporting it, but is citing Law as he does it.
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You'd have to get some significant major league talent for Garza, I think. After this season, Dempster and Z are both off the books - which frees up money, but also takes away two fairly quality arms from the rotation. We'd be looking at a rotation of Wood/Shark/Cashner and whichever two FA pitchers we signed, if that many end up being available and if the bidding doesn't go so high that it doesn't make sense to sign two. We'd be looking at a pretty good rotation, but still wouldn't have much offensively outside of Prince. We might be able to get into the low 80s in wins, but that's probably our ceiling for next year. And all that said, I'd rather have given Pujols 10/275 this year than give a FA starting pitcher a 6-8 year, massive money deal - even one on the right side of 30. Pitchers are massive injury risks, especially those who have thrown a bunch of innings like the guys who may be available have.
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That just makes this trade all the better, then. Wood is starting to look more like a throw-in than the centerpiece he was originally pegged to be.
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The Cubs put a lot of effort into the farm system during parts of the MacPhail and Hendry regimes through the 2000s. We had a handful of really highly rated farm systems and actually produced some pretty high quality players from it - Zambrano, Cruz, Prior, Soto, Willis, Nolasco, Castro - and used it to acquire a couple of cornerstones in Aramis and DLee. The Cubs have tried to win - which is a good thing - but at the same time haven't disregarded the farm system at the same time. The problem is, under Hendry they did a very poor job of targeting the right players - both in the majors and minors - and they never had a consistent philosophy they've stuck to for more than 1 or 2 seasons. The problem hasn't been a desire and effort to win each season, the problem has been how they've gone about trying to do it.
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How likely is he to stick there?
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At this point we have to give up on the seasons - there's just no way to put together a competitive team for 2012 and it'd be pretty hard to come up with one for 2013 without investing a ton of money. I guess maybe we'd have a chance to backdoor our way in by signing Prince, giving Jackson a (likely) silly contract, and adding Cespedes and him doing really well on the ML team. Basically, though, we're committed to this 2+ year rebuilding process, so I'll just sit back and enjoy awesome rebuild trades like this one.
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The problem is, Flaherty and Marwin are probably better than four of the names you listed (Baker and Barney the exceptions), so letting them walk still makes no sense to me. Especially when we then claim Bianchi.
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I'd still prefer Sappelt, Campana, and $1+ million rather than Sappelt and Reed, but I agree that Sappelt almost has to break camp with us.
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Yeah, I'm still frustrated that we're giving up on at least 1-2 seasons for apparently no good reason, but if this is the kind of trade success we can look forward to I can live with it.
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Ok, looking over Sappelt's minor league numbers I'm starting to like him more than before. A .309/.362/.459 career line dragged down by a .726 OPS season in 2009. Other than that struggling 2009, he's posted OPS' of .850, .902, and .834 in the minors. The IsoD leaves a bit to be desired and the BB rate isn't great (7%), but he's put up some pretty nice numbers and hasn't been in the PCL doing it. Torreyes is the high upside prospect I wanted in the deal, so that officially makes me very happy with the trade. To me, Torreyes is the key and Wood is the icing on the cake.
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Yeah, we had a glut of them in the high minors until we started giving them away. Now we really need some.
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Sappelt is a 24 year old outfielder in AAA who debuted last season. Not sure why we need him though. Torreyes seems very intriguing. A middle infielder who is ust 19 and has a .935 OPS over two seasons in the minors. Sappelt actually makes the Reed Johnson signing more confusing and pointless. I'd rather just give Sappelt a chance as the 4th/5th OF this season than waste it on Reed.
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I'm guessing Sappelt is probably a future 4th OF type, but Torreyes looks pretty intriguing. I'm pretty happy with this trade at this point.
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I'm ok with this signing, depending on the price. If it's $1-2 million, I see no problem with it. If it's more, you're probably spending too much. Either way it's not particularly necessary, but unlike the Reed Johnson signing, there's some potential for productivity here. Corpas has had a live arm, will be 29 all year, and has had some pretty nice xFIPs. I'd like to take a chance on a guy who strikes more people out (career 6.48 K/9), but he could still be productive enough to fulfill the contract or get us a prospect at the deadline.
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I'm beginning to warm up to it. Like you, I'm not thrilled at the specific player we targeted but I like the idea of getting young, MLB ready talent + prospects for a reliever. However, I'm still concerned about that dropoff in K/9 and big rise in BB/9 in similar sample sizes. If he continues to not be able to strike that many guys out and walking too many guys, I'm concerned it'll start affecting his production. If those K and BB rates stay at the 2011 levels, it'll probably limit his upside as well and the more flowery 3-starter predictions will likely not come to fruition. I'll still really like the trade if the prospects turn out to be good, but I'm less critical of it if it's Wood and filler. If we are doing this complete overhaul thing, though, I'd still have preferred a high upside prospect over Wood.
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Cards Sign Beltran
dew1679666265 replied to XZero771679666304's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Good move by the Cardinals. I thought for sure he'd be able to get 3 years and maybe a little more money. This limits the considerable risk with him quite a bit. -
The only thing we know as a fact in this is that the Rangers bid the most. Other than that, there is only rumor, speculation, and opinion. The Cubs may have bid $51.69 million or they may have bid $1. We don't know and we never will.
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Andrew Marchand reported the Cubs bid around $20 million. There were other reports that the Cubs' bid was "substantial." The likelihood is that nobody actually knows the Cubs' bid other than that it was lower than the Rangers'. The report you quoted could just as easily only have known those three bids and no others rather than intentionally posting the top 3 bids by amount.
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I expanded a bit more in an edit after you quoted me, though it didn't answer any of these questions. His WAR I'd expect to remain in the 2-3 range it's been at his first year in the majors. As for market price and what he'll actually get, I'm awful at that and probably would be wildly inaccurate if I guessed at it. That's pretty irrelevant to my argument, however, as my argument is not that he won't have any value later on. It's that the time when he has the most value - 2012-2013 - we're not making an effort to win and, thus, wasting those years. Thus, I'd have preferred a player who would be hitting the majors and be at his cheapest at the point in time when we plan on contending again.
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And I don't disagree, but that spot is at the back end of the rotation - thus my comment that his ceiling is "very limited". As a side note, what is FIP-? I've never seen that until you posted it a couple times in this thread.