Jump to content
North Side Baseball

dew1679666265

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,547

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Joomla Posts 1

Chicago Cubs Videos

Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking

News

2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks

Guides & Resources

2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks

The Chicago Cubs Players Project

2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker

Blogs

Events

Forums

Store

Gallery

Everything posted by dew1679666265

  1. dew1679666265
    Two interesting, though possibly meaningless for all we know, comments on the Darvish bidding:
  2. dew1679666265
    Two things: 1) I think it would depend on the middling veterans. Did they find high value guys like DeJesus and 1-year contracts, or did they overpay for mediocrity like giving Paul Maholm 2-3 year deals? I think that's important when considering point two..... 2) If we don't add any players who are currently impact players (not guys who might develop into one 2-3 years from now) this offseason, then we absolutely have to next season. Thus, we need to still be freeing up a ton of money next year. I really like beefing up the minors and that alone would make it a positive offseason, but it would leave us in a spot where we absolutely have to sign/trade for 2 of whichever elite FA pitchers come available next offseason. So if we pour 6-10 million into long term contracts for guys who likely won't provide that type of value (Maholm), it will lessen our ability to spend big on the elite guys next year. There is no reason why a major market team should have to forfeit 2-3 seasons. I could live with giving up on next season if it massively improves our farm system (but only then), but we then must set ourselves up to be able to contend for and sign multiple impact FA/trade targets next offseason.
  3. dew1679666265
    I could well be wrong, but wasn't Cafardo big on reporting crazy stuff about Theo's compensation? As in, the Red Sox were in the ideal position and the Cubs were giving up significant pieces for Theo? I tend to think Cafardo doesn't have strong sources in Chicago. Carfado was the reporter congratulating himself for pushing for Starlin as comp for Theo. It's the art of the deal! Thanks. I was thinking I remembered him saying something silly about the compensation issue.
  4. dew1679666265
    Then I wouldn't trade them Garza. That's basically eliminating 1-2 high end prospects from our system (since we'd get more from another team), and there's no way compensation should be close to that. I have a feeling compensation for both Theo and Hoyer is going to be extremely minor - it doesn't even appear to be taken seriously by either side anymore.
  5. dew1679666265
    What would the Padres have to add to a core of Rizzo/Headley for Garza to make it a good trade for the Cubs? And would San Diego do that? I still tend to doubt that the Padres would have interest in Garza after giving up Latos, but it's interesting to think about.
  6. dew1679666265
    I could well be wrong, but wasn't Cafardo big on reporting crazy stuff about Theo's compensation? As in, the Red Sox were in the ideal position and the Cubs were giving up significant pieces for Theo? I tend to think Cafardo doesn't have strong sources in Chicago.
  7. dew1679666265
    Plus what Tim Brown of Yahoo called an "easy" vesting option for an extra $11 million. It looks like it's pretty likely to be a 4/44 deal, which is even worse.
  8. dew1679666265
    If he'll sign a one-year, prove-it type deal, I'm perfectly fine with that. I just don't like the idea of a multi-year deal to a mediocre pitcher.
  9. dew1679666265
    I understand that and I'd concede to you that Maholm is probably a better option than Wells, I just question that he's a much better option since his upside is still mediocre, he's older, and much more expensive. I guess my thinking is we can fill up all kinds of pitching depth without paying for the 2012 version of Glendon Rusch for 2-3 years. I've said their names a lot, but Francis and Chen are two guys who could be had more cheaply and either would likely require just 1 year commitment (Francis) or actually have a little upside (Chen). I'm sure I could find a half dozen more pitchers who could be mediocre at less commitment than that as well. My view this offseason has been don't get locked into pointless mid-term deals. I've been staunchly against guys like Buerhle, Edwin Jackson, Maholm, etc, because I've wanted to focus on guys with either impact talent (Prince, Pujols, Darvish, Wilson) or are value upside guys (Stewart, Headley, W-Y Chen, Soler, maybe Cespedes). DeJesus fairly well fits the second qualification (he was certainly a value), but without impact talent we're too far away from contention for guys like Buerhle, Jackson, and Maholm to make any type of a difference.
  10. dew1679666265
    Thanks. That's kind of what I figured, but wasn't sure exactly how highly thought of Grandal and Boxerman are. And for the record, I wasn't intending to include Castro - he's probably the most valuable player in that deal.
  11. dew1679666265
    Two things: 1) You're going to have to explain that one to me, because while I could see favoring Maholm because of that, but not favoring him by a lot. Especially when price becomes a factor. 2) The potential of signing a mediocre, soft tossing, semi-old, expensive lefty seems very much like a Hendry move, not a Theo move - I'm confused. That wasn't directed at you Kyle, just a thought that's been nagging at me.
  12. dew1679666265
    I'm kind of in the same boat (I was in favor of trading him for Heath Bell a couple years ago, after all) and I think for me it's because he's such a smoke-and-mirrors type of pitcher. He doesn't have great stuff, doesn't strike people out, but is able to skate by with moderate success. Thing is, that's the exact reason I don't like Maholm. He seems like a left handed version of Wells and Wells only has value because he's really cheap - that won't be the case with Maholm.
  13. dew1679666265
    Would you rather build a deal around Rizzo or Blanks? Or neither?
  14. dew1679666265
    Would we even be able to match that type of deal?
  15. dew1679666265
    So Wells has been a little better in almost every way possible except for a 6% difference in groundball rates and a .4% HR/FB ratio, and because of that Maholm is much more likely to be mediocre than Wells going forward?
  16. dew1679666265
    Wells has a better career ERA, xFIP and K/9 than Maholm, even considering his poor 2011. He's also younger and both are coming off injury-filled seasons. What is it about Wells that makes Maholm slot in "comfortably" in front of him? As for Cashner and Shark, I've been skeptical of Shark slotting into a rotation spot next season and being good (though I'd love it if he could), but Cashner is far more talented than Maholm and both have durability questions (though they're more significant for Cashner than Maholm). What it comes down to is if we're simply spending money because it's there and trying not to be too horrendous, I'd rather go for a guy like Jeff Francis - who is more likely to be had on a one-year deal - or Wei-Yin Chen - who actually has some upside. Not a mediocre lefty, coming off an injury, who is likely to want 2-3 years.
  17. dew1679666265
    Yeah, the early reports that the Ham Fighters were really excited about the top bid seem to be in conflict with this. Most of the rumors we heard said that $40-50 million was the expected range to win the bidding. This falls in the higher end of that, but is still in that range. That could mean either the Ham Fighters were expecting less than the U.S. rumors would indicate, or the rumors about the Blue Jays blowing everybody away may be inaccurate. Not sure this means anything for the Cubs, though.
  18. dew1679666265
    If it's going to take multiple years, I really don't want Maholm. I'd rather have Jeff Francis at one year than Maholm at more than 1. A Francis/Chen duo is probably around the same AAV as Maholm alone, and we have a semi-durable soft-tossing lefty (Francis, and Chen too I guess) and a little bit of potential upside (Chen).
  19. dew1679666265
    If this was already posted, I apologize.... MLBTR
  20. dew1679666265
    I'm really not trying to be continuously negative, but I'm not a big fan of this move either. Maholm's ok, but there's really no upside with him - his highest K/9 of his career is 6.06, his career K/9 is 5.55, and he'll turn 30 years old in 2012. He wouldn't be a bad pickup, but I tend to think the 4.36/4.21/4.22 ERA/FIP/xFIP line is pretty much what we can expect - nothing more and possibly less. Cheap, one year deal, sure I guess. I'd much rather have a guy like Wei-Yin Chen, though.
  21. dew1679666265
    Let me make sure I'm understanding you right, because I think I'm confused: Are you in favor of Crisp starting or being the 4th OF? Because even assuming we trade one of Soriano/Byrd/Jackson, that still leaves us with DeJesus and two of Sori/Byrd/Jackson plsu Crisp. Just for the sake of limiting the slashes, let's say we trade Byrd. I'm assuming Soriano would start and obviously DeJesus would. That leaves either Crisp or Jackson to start in CF. That said, I'm not entirely sure I'm comfortable giving Crisp $8 million to be the 4th OF, especially when he's just a slightly better and much older version of Tony Campana. Bill James' Campana prediction: .289/.333/.341/.311 wOBA If we're just talking about a 4th OF whose primary strengths are defense and baserunning, I think I'd rather invest the $8 million elsewhere and give Campana the role.
  22. dew1679666265
    Honest question - how much better do you expect Crisp to be than Brett Jackson next year? I have two concerns with signing Crisp - 1) we've got a better version of him already on the team in DeJesus and this would leave us with no upside whatsoever in 2 out of 3 spots (there's a tiny bit with Soriano, if he stays) 2) if we're signing Crisp for his defense and baserunning (which is clearly his strength), Brett Jackson ought to be comparable in those two areas and while he may be worse with the bat, he also has upside with the bat that Crisp lacks and he's much, much cheaper. Bill James prediction: Crisp: .271/.333/.395/.328 wOBA (Fans: .267/.330/.390/.330 wOBA) BJax: .251/.333/.434/.342 wOBA
  23. dew1679666265
    I'm probably just grasping at straws here but who's to say that Boras didn't call them and they've been talking ever since? Remember, Epstein did go to law school and like most lawyers, he's likely a master when it comes to not divulging any information that he doesn't have to. "Initiated" is the key word there, I think. That's a pretty easy way for Sveum to downplay potential Cubs' interest in Prince without lying.
  24. dew1679666265
    Just checked the minor league equivalence and it's not as good as I thought. However, he was 23 when he posted that line, has a very good approach at the plate, and was BA's #23 prospect in 2009 and #13 in 2010. I wouldn't give the farm for him, but I'd be willing to pay for the potential. If we miss on Prince, that is.
  25. dew1679666265
    He's just 25 years old, has a very good approach at the plate (15.7% BB rate), and has shown the ability to hit for power in the minors (.497 SLG in AAA, though a grain of salt because it was PCL). And the line you posted is his career minor league line, not his PCL line. In 3 PCL seasons (477 PAs), he's posted a .253/.379/.414 line. Not too encouraging, but consider this: 1st 237 AAA PAs: .244/.363/.360 Next 225 AAA PAs: .279/.404/.497 He's shown pretty clear improvement in a similar number of PAs.
×
×
  • Create New...