dew1679666265
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Everything posted by dew1679666265
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Not a fan of David Wright at this point. Even if you don't fully buy into his decline (which I do), there's still a lot of question marks and reasons for concern there that it makes it too risky. Add in that his name value and position could boost his cost even more, I don't think it's worth the risk. I would inquire, especially if Ian Stewart doesn't develop this year, but I'd be really careful about the price.
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Next 3 picks: 72. Dolphins (ManCrushOnNomar) 73. Dolphins (ManCrushOnNomar) 74. Chiefs (Tiger) Again, if anybody isn't sure they'll be available to make the pick, shoot me a PM with your top 4 choices. Also, if you don't want to continue into round 3, PM me to let me know.
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He won a gold glove last year, so probably. UZR/150 did like him last year - 5.3 fielder in right - but that was coming off two really dreadful seasons of -13.5 and -16.5.
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UZR/150 has him as a career -1.6 fielder in left, -7.0 fielder in right. Overall, he's a -5.7 UZR/150 outfielder in almost 7,000 innings.
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Next 3 picks: 71. Bills (imb!) 72. Dolphins (ManCrushOnNomar) 73. Dolphins (ManCrushOnNomar) Again, if anybody isn't sure they'll be available to make the pick, shoot me a PM with your top 4 choices. Also, if you don't want to continue into round 3, PM me to let me know.
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I was really torn on this pick for Washington. It was tempting to bolster the offensive line depth with a guy like Nate Potter to develop behind Jammal Brown and Trent Williams (ultimately kicking Brown inside, probably). But the Redskins have a dire need for youth and talent in the secondary. They threw a lot of stuff against the wall in signing Tanard Jackson, Madieu Williams, and Brandon Meriweather, and I think enough will stick that they'll get a couple of decent starters out of that group. However, they need help at corner behind DeAngelo Hall and Cedric Griffin. Thus, I settled on CB Josh Norman out of Coastal Carolina. Not a guy you want getting significant playing time early on, but a high upside player who can develop for a year or two behind Hall and Griffin and perhaps eventually become a starter. raw and the Jaguars are now on the clock. I'll PM him.
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Was wondering when Weeden and Miller would go. Good value on both of them, I think. Give me a couple minutes to finalize my decision on the Redskins' pick. Next 3 picks: 70. Jaguars (rawaction) 71. Bills (imb!) 72. Dolphins (ManCrushOnNomar) Again, if anybody isn't sure they'll be available to make the pick, shoot me a PM with your top 4 choices. Also, if you don't want to continue into round 3, PM me to let me know.
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How about Brett, Upton, AND Upton in the same OF? I would really love to see that. To make this post topical as well, an OF of BJax/Upton/Cespedes would've been really enjoyable to watch too.
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I wonder if the change as a hitter is something that just naturally occurred, or if it's a slight mechanical breakdown that could be fixed. I agree if he doesn't get his GB/FB ratio back to the pre-2009 levels, then he probably is what he is offensively - which is perfectly fine as is, especially when coupled with his defense. His infield flyball ratio has gone up as well the past 3 years, which makes me wonder if it is something mechanical.
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The Browns and gorbs27 are now on the clock. I PMd him. Next 3 picks: 68. Buccaneers (minnesotacubsfan) 69. Redskins (dew) 70. Jaguars (rawaction) Again, if anybody isn't sure they'll be available to make the pick, shoot me a PM with your top 4 choices. Also, if you don't want to continue into round 3, PM me to let me know.
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The Vikings and hawkeye are now on the clock. I PMd him. Next 3 picks: 67. Browns (gorbs27) 68. Buccaneers (minnesotacubsfan) 69. Redskins (dew) Again, if anybody isn't sure they'll be available to make the pick, shoot me a PM with your top 4 choices. Also, if you don't want to continue into round 3, PM me to let me know.
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I don't know that I'd call it bizarre, but his BABIP has been going down the past couple of years while his LD% has been going up - and right in line with his career LD%. Tack 30 points onto his BABIP to get it in line with his career BABIP and his numbers probably take a pretty decent jump up.
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I'm still completely unconvinced Upton and BJax can't coexist in the same OF. Just because he doesn't hit for enough power doesn't mean you don't sign a 4+ WAR player. Even if Upton/BJax loses offensive value due to a move to a corner, he gains defensive value by moving to a corner. And with the emphasis on pitching and defense the Theo regime has brought, I don't think you can overlook that. Worst case scenario is Upton gives us around 4 WAR for, probably, the next 2-4 years before declining. Best case scenario, you figure out why he's been BABIP-unlucky the past couple of years, fix it, and he becomes an elite 5-6 WAR player over that time frame. He's in the prime of his career (28), plays great defense in CF, is very patient, and has some potential for upside. Exactly the type of player the Cubs should be pursuing - alongside players like Brett Jackson, not instead of.
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I don't think anyone has argued that this is the preferred method, just that it can be done. I've seen it given by some as reasoning to not pursue certain FAs this past offseason. Basically, "let's not give Pujols/Darvish the kind of money he wants and instead trade for young, superstar X in 2 years."
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Snayke and the Rams are now on the clock. I PMd him. Next 3 picks: 66. Vikings (hawkeye) 67. Browns (gorbs27) 68. Buccaneers (minnesotacubsfan) Again, if anybody isn't sure they'll be available to make the pick, shoot me a PM with your top 4 choices. Also, if you don't want to continue into round 3, PM me to let me know.
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I'm not intending to argue that prospects are these uber-valuable possessions that we should hold onto at all costs. I fully believe part of the value of a prospect is what he can bring back in a trade (either individually or as part of a package). However, as we are in a process of asset building, it seems to make far more sense to me to err on the side of giving up money rather than prospects when we can. It seems like a lot of the conversation on this board, especially recently, has been to avoid signing players (Pujols, Cespedes, Darvish) because we can just trade for a guy later on. If the choice is to sign Prince or trade for Adrian Gonzalez, of course I'd rather trade for the far superior player. But there's a lot of value in giving a player nothing but money when he's similar to a guy you have to give up less money and prospects for.
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Next 3 picks: 64. Colts (CCP, Exile) 65. Rams (Snayke) 66. Vikings (hawkeye) Again, if anybody isn't sure they'll be available to make the pick, shoot me a PM with your top 4 choices. Also, if you don't want to continue into round 3, PM me to let me know.
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Depends on what's going on with his BABIP. If he's just going to be a BABIP-unlucky guy, then yeah he'll stay a little too low OBP type guy. But if there's some way to get the BABIP to match the LD%, that could make up the difference you need to get his OBP into a good level. And if his OBP can get into the .360 range, he becomes a borderline elite player. I'm not sure you can get that BABIP up enough, though, since it's been low for a couple seasons now.
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Upton is actually a pretty patient hitter, his OBP has just been getting dragged down by poor batting averages. He had an .086 IsoD in 2007 (his best offensive year) and IsoDs of .072, .085, and .088 the past 3 seasons. If you could figure out a way to get that average up some, he'd be a really good OBP guy for you. On that note, his BABIPs have seemed pretty low the past 3 seasons. His career BABIP is .327, but the past 3 seasons it's been .310, .304, and .298. My first thought was that he must be hitting the ball softer, but his LD% those seasons are right in line with his career 17.6% - 15.4 in 2009, 16.6 in 2010, and 18.3 in 2011. I'm not quite sure what to make of that. 2009 makes sense, but it seems like his numbers should have been better the past couple of years, it seems. Has he just gotten unlucky the past couple of years and is a candidate to turn it around, or at this point do we just assume he's going to be BABIP-unlucky for whatever reason?
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I think that's an important point for national types and Cub fans as well to keep in mind. It's so rare that a player comes up at Castro's age that it's easy to expect the same sort of development from him that you would a player who debuted at 24-25 and had 4-5 years of minor league experience. People don't see the development process a player goes through at 19/20/21, though, since it's pretty much always done in A ball.
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I wouldn't base the decision on whether or not to pursue Swisher on the presence of Ha/Szczur, but it would affect how much I was willing to pay for a good, but non-impact FA like Swisher. Swisher should age pretty well, but he'll probably still be on a slight decline throughout a contract with us. He's also not a real power threat and while I wouldn't turn away a good player simply because he doesn't hit for significant power, it'd be nice if he had that attribute. None of those alone would be enough for me to decide against Swisher, but the combination of age, lack of power, and depth at the position would make me fairly stringent on what I'd offer him. If he'd take something like DeJesus signed, I'd be interested. My inclination is he'd want more, though, and at that point I'd rather take that money and spend it on an impact player (if one is available, that is).
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That's actually where having a really good front office, as we do, comes into play. We've seen Hendry overreact to small sample sizes in the past and other GMs often do that as well. I don't think it's all that outlandish to think if LaHair is still hitting at the ASB, that a team might be convinced he's legit. Now what that means in a prospect sense, I don't know. But you have to consider that before the season we couldn't have gotten warm bodies for LaHair and if we keep him and he reverts back to what he was previously, we won't be able to get warm bodies for him again.
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Round 3 is now posted on the first post of the thread. If anybody wants to bow out before it starts, feel free. You can post in here or PM me and either I'll replace you or find someone who will. Next 3 picks: 63. Giants (gooney) 64. Colts (CCP, Exile) 65. Rams (Snayke) Again, if anybody isn't sure they'll be available to make the pick, shoot me a PM with your top 4 choices.
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I'd do a LaHair for Archer (when he was dealt to the Cubs) trade without a second thought at any point. I probably wouldn't do a DLee type deal for LaHair, but it'd still be tempting to go ahead and get something for him in case he did turn back into the AAAA guy he's been the past 6 years.
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I could see Crick there as well.