dew1679666265
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Everything posted by dew1679666265
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Which also means we have a much less clear idea of exactly how good Wells will be. He's already been a lot better than many people thought he would be, while Garza hasn't turned the corner yet despite better stuff than Wells. I don't see any reason to pay Garza $5+ million when we have Wells for significantly cheaper. Garza hasn't been significantly better than Wells. Garza has a significantly better resume and is 15 months younger. Show me the numbers that say he's been significantly better. I've already shown a number of stats, as has grassbass, that show he and Wells have been pretty similar overall.
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He turns 29 next summer. He is who he is and I really don't see much hope for a rebound. And what reason do we have to believe that Garza will be much better than Wells from here on out? He hasn't been to this point.
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Which also means we have a much less clear idea of exactly how good Wells will be. He's already been a lot better than many people thought he would be, while Garza hasn't turned the corner yet despite better stuff than Wells. I don't see any reason to pay Garza $5+ million when we have Wells for significantly cheaper. Garza hasn't been significantly better than Wells.
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Young? Garza is younger and more talented. The idea of prospects has been thrown around - such as Carpenter, McNutt, Vitters, etc. I wasn't responding just to your Wells/Garza deal, but to deals that include young talent in general. And Wells has been very similar statistically to Garza, if not slightly better plus he's a whole lot cheaper. They have similar peripherals and Wells has a better career xFIP. I don't see what gives Garza a clear, statistical advantage.
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Career xFIP: Wells - 4.18 Garza - 4.45 Garza strikes out one more hitter per nine innings, Wells walks about half a guy less per nine innings. Garza surrenders 1.09 HR/9, Wells surrenders 0.88 HR/9. Garza costs more. I really don't see the positive behind dealing Wells for Garza. I'm not against going after Garza, but I'd almost rather go after Brandon Webb as a reclamation project than give up good, young talent for Garza.
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It's just a one year deal and part of the money is deferred. If he returns to one of his best years (2007-2008), we got a great deal. Even if he returns to his 2009 form, he won't be overpaid at probably $7-8 mil this year.
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I'd much rather get good on-base numbers and power numbers than average. Batting average really doesn't mean much, a .351/.490 career OBP/SLG line means a lot more.
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Yeah, I'm assuming he's gone at this point.
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I thought about him, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's not in the rotation. Either a salary dump trade later in the offseason to a team that didn't fill it's SP need or a long relief spot in the pen seems like a possibility, at least (and I hope).
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Wow, how'd I miss a 1.037 OPS? Probably because I was looking for .900 OPS' and looked right over a higher one. Or I'm just an idiot. The point still stands, though, that a .900 OPS isn't likely, but him being a very valuable player is likely.
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A .900 OPS is unlikely since he's never done it before, but a return to his 2009 form of an .893 OPS is very possible, as is 2008's .871. Either way, so long as that BABIP rebounds, he's almost a shoe-in to be a 3+ WAR player.
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Hopefully Cashner will start in the majors – Demp/Z/Wells/Webb/Cashner, am I forgetting anybody? As for the Pena signing, it's a good move. It's better than paying Dunn $56 million over 4 years as long as last year was an aberration. Like you said, let's get the Davis/O'Day for Chirinos/Dolis trade done and hopefully have our first baseman of the present and of the future.
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Carrie Muskat. I'd like to see a second year club option in there just in case he rebounds we can get him at a discounted price. However, that's exactly the reason why I can see he wouldn't want one this season.
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Got to be too much smoke for there not to be something there. It may not be imminent, but I've got to believe they're working on this or something similar.
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It all depends on what the rest of the deal was. If we were already giving up BJax/Archer/HJ Lee and they wanted Cashner as well, it was good to turn it down. If they just simply wouldn't trade Cashner at all, that's a bit disappointing. However, with the upside Cashner has, it's hard to trade him away for anybody, even Adrian Gonzalez.
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Wonder if this means anything, or if the Cubs/Rangers guys just didn't want to give anything away? I'm really liking this deal, so hopefully it's just team personnel posturing.
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I'd be fine with that. We're not likely to find a better deal on the FA market next year (unless Pujols comes available or Prince Fielder feels like signing at a big discount with us), so Pena for two years and under $10 mil is decent enough. Hopefully by then Davis will develop enough to be a good first baseman, assuming we make that deal.
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carlos pena kind of sucks, but he's obviously the guy here. if we don't get him, i'm starting a thread advocating jack cust. it's pretty sad. He sucked pretty bad last year, but didn't for three seasons previously. .374 wOBA in each of 2008 and 2009 and a .430 wOBA in 2007. 6.2, 4 and 2.8 WAR each of the past three seasons prior to 2010 is quite good as well. It just depends on whether last year's awful numbers (influenced heavily by a .222 BABIP, 57 points below his career average) is the norm from here on out or not.
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Cubs after Laroche
dew1679666265 replied to Keener98's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I think that is the bare minimum of acceptable for a supposed power hitter. It's pretty much average overall and substandard for a first baseman. Ok, thanks. I couldn't remember, though I had always considered LaRoche a fairly patient player. -
Cubs after Laroche
dew1679666265 replied to Keener98's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I know he has the reputation of a good defender. -
Cubs after Laroche
dew1679666265 replied to Keener98's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Isn't an IsoD of .060 to .070 pretty good? I think his main OBP problem is the max .270 average he has. The IsoD seems pretty good, though I could be wrong. -
Cubs after Laroche
dew1679666265 replied to Keener98's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I'd rather see us go for Carlos Pena, but LaRoche isn't terrible as long as it's a one-year deal. Like PCP said, a mid-.800s OPS isn't out of the question and he's a pretty good bet to be a 2 WAR guy or so. Bill James is predicting a .350 wOBA for 2011. I don't want any more than a 1 year deal, though. And still go get Chris Davis or a young guy to develop behind LaRoche. -
Salty went to the Red Sox at last year's deadline for minor leaguers. I think Ramirez is still there, but for some reason I'm thinking he'll need to be moved from catcher for defensive reasons. Am I wrong there? Even if he doesn't, Chirinos or Castillo would provide depth for them.
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Wow, that's a mangling of his name. Maybe it's a different guy! :D Wonder if he's better or worse than Robinson Chirinos?
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Wow, that's a mangling of his name.