dew1679666265
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Everything posted by dew1679666265
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The Reds were 79-83, the Cubs were 71-91 last season. And the Reds didn't have the injury problems the Cubs did. The Reds can certainly be contenders in the division next year, but I wouldn't say they're "much closer" to contention than the Cubs, nor were they quite a bit better than the Cubs last season.
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This was the thought that came to me. The division was already looking very weakened with Pujols and Prince both leaving it. Now with Braun out for 50 games, the Brewers (who I consider the only actual good team in the division) may well not be able to reach that 90 win mark. This makes it that much more possible for the Cubs to contend in 2012 and that much more important that we don't engage in a 3-5 year unnecessary rebuilding process.
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My hope at this point with the first base situation is that either the Cubs or Mariners sign Prince. If we get Prince, that's the ideal scenario. However, if somebody's going to beat us out then I hope it's Seattle - the reason being that might make Justin Smoak available and I'd hope Theo/Hoyer would jump all over that option. In all honesty, I haven't seen another option that's even mildly appealing. From the names I've seen tossed around outside of Prince and Smoak - LaHair, Trumbo, Kotchman, Pena, Loney - there's a whole lot of really bad options. Moreland I guess could be a moderately decent option, but in his only full ML season he wasn't good. Morales would probably be third best option (behind Prince and Smoak) if he can play anymore - but there's a lot of doubt there apparently.
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He definitely is an elite hitter, however. His worst wOBA of his career was .354, which came in his rookie season at age 22. He's been between .370 and .420 since then. I'm not discounting defense with this post, but with the stress Theo/Hoyer are putting on defense and with incumbents Starlin and Barney already in the infield, the rest of the defense should be good enough to keep Prince's defense from hurting as much as it would if we had all around poor infield defense. Stewart helps as well, though not as much as Headley would have. Pujols being more of a complete player is the biggest reason I preferred him to Prince (even with the contract Pujols received, I still wanted him), but this team needs an elite bat and Prince is definitely that.
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Misc. Free Agent News
dew1679666265 replied to Clem Fandango's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
It's my first stop when I need minor league numbers. Do you use a different resource? Baseball Reference or Fangraphs. I haven't been to The baseball Cube in years. Baseball-Reference is my favorite minor league stat source. Fangraphs is better for major league stats, but B-R seems a bit easier to use when dealing with minor league stats. -
It's not that anyone flat out didn't want Jurrjens, it's that we didn't want to give up the type of package you give up for an elite or borderline elite pitcher - because he isn't that.
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Misc. Free Agent News
dew1679666265 replied to Clem Fandango's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Numbers: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Jeff-Bianchi A LeMahieu by any other name. A 2 year older LeMahieu with a career OBP 20 points lower. -
Yeah, he went to Baltimore. They have enough needs at the positions Flaherty plays that he's pretty likely to stick simply to be a utility player - even more likely if they feel he can be a cost-effective starter.
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Sounds extremely unlikely.
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The positive about Stewart is that he's going to be 27 next year - the "prime years" according to Theo, Hoyer, and others. If he's going to break out, it'd likely be next year.
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I see two ways of looking at it, depending on your bias: Either 1) it's a sign that his numbers were artificially depressed last year and he'll rebound now that he's healthy, or 2) it was a pretty significant injury to his wrist and could have permanent effects on his ability to drive the ball consistently. Myself, I'm not sure what to think. I'll just trust Theo that 1 is closer to reality than 2.
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Woops, didn't realize that. That makes it a bit of a steeper decline, but still nothing to indicate he's on the verge of a cliff dive.
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He put up some really nice AAA numbers before moving into the extreme pitchers' park, is only 27, is a better OBP guy than Stewart, UZR/150 has him as a better defender than Stewart, his numbers have quite possibly been hurt by his park and Stewart's quite possibly have been helped, and he showed clear improvement in 2011 while Stewart fell apart. There's also the report that Headley may have adjusted his swing to make him a better hitter in PetCo, but hurting his power overall. If he readjusted his swing in Chicago, it could result in a power increase.
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There was a very slight drop from 2008 to 2009 (.013 in OPS, .009 in wOBA, .1 in WAR) and then a clear drop from 2009 to 2010. Last year he clearly dropped again, but largely due to a dreadful first two weeks of the year (after which he was back to his old self) and a drop in BABIP with a steady LD%. I'm not arguing that you should ignore the first few days of the season, but if you take the 155 games Tiger isolated there, plus the playoffs, you get an over 1.000 OPS in a full season's worth of games. Or a very similar season to 2010 - meaning he was pretty steady from 2008 to 2009, dropped to 2010 level and then held steady there in 2011.
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His numbers took a dip this year to be sure and that's reason for concern, but I've not seen a steady decline. TT (I believe) pointed out earlier in the offseason that after a rough first couple of weeks to the season, Pujols was back to his old self in 2011. His numbers have dropped from his 2008 peak, but if you'll notice his LD% held steady from 2010 to 2011 and yet his BABIP dropped 20 points. Given the numbers TT posted and the drop in BABIP, I don't think it's all that out of line to think he could sit right around his 2010 numbers for the next 4-5 years and then drop off. A 2-3 WAR player in at most 5 years is falling off a cliff, though, and I don't think he'll do that. I'm thinking he'll be a 3-5 WAR player around that time. Or at least the chances are good enough he'll be that that it's worth the gamble.
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You're probably right that Headley's price tag just remained too high. My thinking was simply that the Padres might value 2-3 good, young non-established players (McNutt, Vitters, maybe Rhee or someone similar) over one good, young established player. I tend to agree with XZero, though, that our best shot at getting Headley disappeared when the Padres got Street and no longer had a need for Marmol.
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Theo and Hoyer are excellent evaluators of talent, so I won't criticize the trade. It simply doesn't excite me.
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It was the mix of him likely being fantastically productive (even if he simply repeated his 5-6 WAR performance of last year) for at least the front half of his contract plus our complete and utter dearth of major league talent at first (save for Vogelbach) that made me willing to commit that much to Pujols. I don't think it's safe to assume a normal aging curve for one of the greatest players ever and with our payroll and desperate need at first, it was a good gamble to take.
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We had no shortage of MI - we just gave three of them away and got a lottery ticket in return. I'm not against this trade, but I don't feel like it was a particularly good move either. Probably my biggest disappointment is that it almost certainly takes us out of the running for Headley, which is fine if the Pads were asking the moon but disappointing if he could have been had for a reasonable price.
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If DJ can play second in the majors, we'll miss him. If Theo/Hoyer determined that he can't, then the trade looks much better.
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I did. I'd have been fine with the Cubs matching, or even slightly exceeding, that offer. That said, I'm not upset over the offseason thus far, just slightly disappointed. We have such a desperate need for impact players and the two primary ones I wanted - Pujols and Wilson - are off the board. I had no interest whatsoever in Bell, Buehrle, or Reyes and I have no problem with Marwin and Colvin being gone, but I feel like we overpaid giving up DJ for Stewart and we gave away Flaherty for nothing to top that off. I trust Theo, though.
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Yes, this would sate me. I'd be fine with that. I could also be sated by adding Darvish/Smoak/Headley/Soler, but obviously that would entail the Mariners signing Prince.
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Prince has almost become a necessity at this point (unless he goes to Seattle and we can grab Smoak) and I think we really need Darvish now as well. I'm really doubtful we can afford both, however, since Darvish will cost the salary plus the up front posting fee.
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I would've been ok but not thrilled with what Pujols got. I realize we wouldn't have gotten Wilson at the price the Angels got him at and if it really would've taken $100+ million I'm ok with missing on him, but it still hurts to miss out on him.
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Re: Darvish
dew1679666265 replied to SouthSideRyan's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I thought it was 4 days? Wouldn't that make it 5 p.m. eastern on Dec. 12? Business days, I guess. Good point, didn't think about that.