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dew1679666265

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Everything posted by dew1679666265

  1. dew1679666265
    Chen career stats: 4.52 ERA/5.03 FIP/4.71 xFIP - 882:446 K:BB - 5.9 total WAR in 13 years. One year deal, maybe. More than that, I'd hate it.
  2. dew1679666265
    Signing pitching depth is pretty expected, but targeting Chen specifically surprises me quite a bit. There's nothing in Chen's resume that makes me think he'll be any better than a mediocre pitcher going forward and certainly not worth a multiyear deal. Not a fan of this if the rumor is true.
  3. dew1679666265
    We really don't need to be wasting money on Varitek or Hill. Keep Soto and make Castillo the backup on the cheap.
  4. dew1679666265
    If Jason Varitek is anywhere near the Cubs this year, I'm punching someone. That guy has suuuuucked the last few years and has 0 business in the Cubs dugout unless he's a base coach. Varitek will be 40 years old next year and has averaged a .85 WAR the past 6 years. Honestly, I'd rather bring Koyie back than sign Varitek. And I have no interest whatsoever in even considering bringing Koyie back. EDIT: Upon looking at Koyie's stats again, I may have been exaggerating that I'd take him over Varitek. I still stand by my agreement that neither should be on the team next year.
  5. dew1679666265
    If I'm trading Marmol and Soto, I want players with some upside not a guy who's been on the decline for the past 3 seasons and that UZR says is a really bad defender. Wright could bounce back once out of Citi Field, but I'm not willing to bet Marmol and Soto on that.
  6. dew1679666265
    That's what I've been suspecting. That would explain chatting with Sveum again and interviewing Hale - trying to draw out the process a bit so that it doesn't look like they're just sitting around doing nothing.
  7. dew1679666265
    Interesting to note: Wright WAR past 3 years: 3.6/4.0/1.9 - 3.2 average Soto WAR past 3 years: 1.2/3.1/2.1 - 2.1 average Wright will make $15 million in 2012, Soto made $3 million in 2011 and will be in his arb-3 season in 2012. I'm not sure I'd give Soto alone for Wright, much less throw Marmol in as well.
  8. dew1679666265
    The internal replacability at catcher in the Cubs' system is pretty weak, honestly. Soto's inconsistent, but most catchers are and overall Geo's a top 10 catcher offensively in the majors. Castillo has posted a career .753 OPS in the minors. He did post good OPS' the past two years at AAA, but the PCL is notorious for bloating offensive numbers pretty dramatically. It's hard to point to those two years as evidence that he's figured something out. The Cubs have some really good bullpen arms ready or nearly ready to replace Marmol, they don't have anything similar at catcher.
  9. dew1679666265
    I've been one of the biggest opponents of trading Geo on this board the entire season and offseason and as long as Welington Castillo is the replacement plan, I'll continue to do so. However, if the scenario is a duo of trades that centers a Marmol deal around receiving Arencibia and a Soto trade that nets us Danks, I'd have to really consider it. Arencibia isn't an OBP guy, but he's cheap and slugs really well - .507 career minor league SLG and .438 majors SLG last year despite a .219 BA. He'll be 26 next year, but he's cheap for a long time (won't be a FA until 2017). He's a downgrade in the short term from Geo, but a much better long term solution. Add in that we'd get a potential Garza-type breakout potential in Danks for Geo and that's a tempting scenario. Now whether it's realistic, I doubt it.
  10. dew1679666265
    My biggest concern about going with Darvish is how the posting fee will affect pursuing Pujols/Fielder. We should have enough money under the budget to get, for instance, Pujols and Wilson (though it'd be tight). If you substitute Darvish for Wilson, you have to add whatever the posting fee is up front - meaning Ricketts will have to dole out something like $30-50 million extra this offseason just to negotiate with Darvish, an amount he wouldn't with Wilson. Would Ricketts commit $25-28 million for Pujols this year, $10+ million for Darvish this year, and pay a $40 million posting fee? Ricketts is awesome, but that's a whole lot of money to be paying this year. I wouldn't want Darvish if it cost us Pujols/Prince.
  11. dew1679666265
    Any possibility they've settled on Maddux, but are waiting for him to make a decision? Since they aren't doing a second round of interviews, it would seem they have a good idea of who they like more than who and it would seem they'd make a decision pretty quickly - unless they were waiting for one of the candidates to actually accept the job.
  12. dew1679666265
    Any interest in Manny Parra? He's 29 years old (had no idea he was that old, was thinking he was 26 or 27) and hasn't been good in the majors, but he had pretty stellar minor league numbers. If he could quit walking people in the majors, he could be an interesting back of the rotation guy if non-tendered. Stewart, Volstad, Kuo, Pelfrey interest me as well.
  13. dew1679666265
    This is where "best interests of the team" conflicts with my irrational fan side. It's not in the best interest of the Cubs to bring back Aramis, but it makes me sad that we won't.
  14. dew1679666265
    That's what I was wondering. Hoyer stated that Headley should be one of the guys the Padres build around for the future, but Hoyer is now in Chicago. While not likely, it's possible Byrnes isn't as sold on Headley. The article didn't indicate whether what I bolded was Byrnes or Hoyer's thinking, though.
  15. dew1679666265
    No idea why this is. It has to do with visa issues. That makes sense.
  16. dew1679666265
    No idea why this is.
  17. dew1679666265
    I guess this is the default what to do about third base thread, so I'll put this here: They may not remain uninterested if a good offer comes along, but this is disappointing (though unsurprising) news.
  18. dew1679666265
    I'm with TT on Prado and Jurrjens - Prado will be 29 next year and isn't a sure thing to continue to be highly productive and Jurrjens has a ton of question marks, including a mysterious, consistent drop in velocity the past few years. I wouldn't oppose acquiring either, but I wouldn't give the type of package they'll command or you suggested. I'd much rather overpay for Headley (even with McNutt+, which I've been reluctant to do) than overpay for a Prado/Jurrjens package.
  19. dew1679666265
    DeRosa is awful now too. You're right on Encarnacion, though - the Jays picked up his option. Cot's hasn't updated that list yet, apparently.
  20. dew1679666265
  21. dew1679666265
    Very, very minor news but still may be of some interest on here:
  22. dew1679666265
    Thanks! I think I'd have a lot of interest in Ryu in the little bit I read there. If there are multiple players being posted all in the same offseason, it seems it would drop the overall bidding on those posting fees. Maybe making Darvish or Ryu a little cheaper to win the rights to negotiate with them.
  23. dew1679666265
    FanGraphs disagrees on the baserunning: Teix: -8.5 Gonzalez: -18.8 And as Bob Sanders said, the defense and baserunning are accounted for in the WAR, they're what makes Teix a little better than Prince overall and isn't enough to make Gonzalez better than Prince overall. I guess B-R has Teix at average-ish, but Gonzalez well into the negative. Teix: -0 (what's with the negative?) Gonzalez: -15
  24. dew1679666265
    How is Teix's bat elite and Prince's is not? Teix career wOBA: .384 Prince career wOBA: .391 Prior to their respective age 28 seasons, Teix had 3 seasons of .400+ wOBA (.405, .406, .410) and Prince has had 3 (.417, .420, .408). Career OPS: Teix - .904; Prince - .929 Teix was more valuable prior to his huge contract than Prince (4.5 average WAR to 3.3) but it's because of defense rather than offense. Prince is the better offensive player. And Adrian Gonzalez was never a free agent, if I'm right in that he's who you were referring to. He was traded to the Red Sox before he hit the market. But if you want to include him anyway, prior to heading to the Sox, here's their respective numbers: Gonzalez average WAR: 3.0 Gonzalez wOBAs over .400: 1; career wOBA: .375 Prince average WAR: 3.3 WAR Prince wOBAs over .400: 3; career wOBA: .391 My guess would be that Petco held down Gonzalez' numbers, but Prince was statistically the better player through each player's age 28 season. Is it just that Prince is fat and Teix/Gonzalez are not that make you comfortable with them?
  25. dew1679666265
    Soriano was a bad contract from day one, and just about everyone here thought so. Ditto Werth, Zito, Howard, Wells, etc. Because none of those players would give you the exceptional production on the front end to make the hit on the back end acceptable. Pujols and Fielder are not comparable players to those guys.
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