UK1679666180

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=450948 2008 BP Adjusted Runs Prevented: Bell is around 50th overall and Gregg is around 110th. For me, I believe ARP is probably the most effective stat at analyzing how well a reliever has done. ARP= .

I haven't followed the Bears transactions minus Cutler and the draft, but is Adams coming back? I think he gets quickly forgotten by Bears fans and has been pretty good for the Bears.

There's no real position he stands out at, he's kinda a tweener everywhere on the diamond.

Second base would definitely be the position to upgrade. If Sanchez is available I'd look into him. I'm just not a proponent of overpaying unless the piece you're overpaying for is a true difference maker. I don't see that with Bell when Gregg is pitching fine overall. At this rate Gregg is likely to repeat last year's performance, which will be fine if the offense can improve a bit and we get some actual leads. Gregg has been avg. at best though throughout his career, he's been nothing better than a 3rd or 4th option out of the pen in critical situations. Bell has been a #1 option out of the pen 2 of the last 3 years with him being a #2 option last year. Bell would be a difference maker, IMO. Right now, Bell has prevented almost 13 more runs from scoring than Gregg over an avg. reliever. That's significant and definitely a difference maker. Bell has been pretty awesome this year. Any idea why his numbers were down last year? It definitely looks like an anomaly as it's right between two awesome years, but it kinda sticks out. Also, how much is he affected by PetCo? I wouldn't think enough to make a radical difference in his numbers, but it'd be nice to know. I don't know why his numbers were down last year, he did pitch poorly on the road last year, he was still a solid #2 reliever last year. In '07, he pitched better on the roadthan at Petco. In '08, as I mentioned he pitched better at home. In '09, he has been amazing on the road and better away from Petco. There's nothing to indicate he's been inflated by pitching at Petco. ARP factors park factors and it's been the primary state behind my argument towards Bell. This year on the road, he's faced 45 hitters and given up 9 hits (1 XBH-DB) and only 1 BB to 12Ks. He's given up more home HRs than road HRs over the last 3 years (5 at home and 3 on the road).

I believe it's middle of the pack. They had several poor drafts in a row, but the recent ones have given some new life to the farm. Also, the progress in the Pacific Rim has been outstanding. It looks to be improving. I'd like to see them be more aggressive with early picks in the draft, although I don't know if they have the green light b/c of budgeting handed down from the top.

Second base would definitely be the position to upgrade. If Sanchez is available I'd look into him. I'm just not a proponent of overpaying unless the piece you're overpaying for is a true difference maker. I don't see that with Bell when Gregg is pitching fine overall. At this rate Gregg is likely to repeat last year's performance, which will be fine if the offense can improve a bit and we get some actual leads. Gregg has been avg. at best though throughout his career, he's been nothing better than a 3rd or 4th option out of the pen in critical situations. Bell has been a #1 option out of the pen 2 of the last 3 years with him being a #2 option last year. Bell would be a difference maker, IMO. Right now, Bell has prevented almost 13 more runs from scoring than Gregg over an avg. reliever. That's significant and definitely a difference maker.

This is reminding me of last year's "Kerry Wood is a sham closer" nonsense. Let's not repeat that crap again. It's valid as far as Gregg is concerned. Wood was a solid #2 reliever.

It'd be worth a call, for sure, but I suspect they'd ask for well more than we should pay for that kind of upgrade. I wasn't aware of the shoulder injury last year. That makes me feel better about him. I wouldn't be against Sanchez at the right price. That'd be a very good pen, but what minor leaguers have we given up to get that pen? And if we can only upgrade one time, is the upgrade in the pen really that much more important? I tend to agree with Mojo here - improve the offense and the pen isn't in one run games every time they have a lead. That leads to fewer blown saves. What position are they going to improve the offense? 2B is the only logical choice as they have too much money riding on too little of production in the expensive OF and other spots have more productive players and one spot that was great last year and bad this year but more likely to turn it around. If the Cubs aren't going to be sellers and they don't have the ability to take on larger payrolls, then they have maximize who they get for as little of salary as possible. While Sanchez at 3 mil or so prorated might be too much, especially with that 8 mil option for '10, someone like Bell would not be too much this year as far as salary. The Cubs at this stage need to decide a direction, whether to try as they have recently by making the moves to try and get them to the WS or sell parts. I don't think they're good enough right now to compete for a WS, but I think they're good enough to where the two parts I mentioned would get them much closer. Going from Gregg to Bell would be a huge upgrade, IMO. Probably just as important as Fontenot to Sanchez as far as the two moves I wish they would pursue, but who knows what limitations they have. At this stage, I don't think protecting the farm is wise if they plan on winning it all this year.

That UK was an idiot.

Like Gregg, he's given up too many HRs and he's been below avg. as far as not allowing inherited runners to score (worse than Gregg in this case).

SD's incentive would be to maximize their younger talent for Bell on a team that has no chance of winning anytime soon, I expect him to get around 4 mil next year. As far as Sanchez, he was bothered by a shoulder injury for most of the year but played thru it. He's been the 3rd best 2B in MLB this year, he was terrible in '08, 10th best in '07, and the 4th best in '06. It looks to me that '08 was the fluke. Also, it pushes Fontenot into the role now occupied by Miles. A bench of Fontenot, Fox, Hoffpauir, Hill, Johnson, and Miles becomes much better. Bell, Marmol, Guzman, Gregg, Marshall, & Ascanio becomes a very good pen and puts Gregg where he should be as the team's 4th or 5th best reliever, which is expected from a solid pen. Have him as the 3rd best and utilize as a closer and it hurts the club, especially compared to someone like Bell.

Street hasn't been that effective this year, whether that's because of a new team, new league, and/or Coors is up for debate. Neither him nor Jenks have been very productive this year, same for Rivera.

I think it has a good chance to be above average now. If Marmol can get his control back, the he, Gregg, Ascanio and Guzman are pretty good - especially considering the low cost across the board. Would we have the prospects - and would the upgrade be worth the cost - to acquire a young, cheap pitcher like Soriano or Bell? Gregg hasn't been that good though, he's pitched better of late, but he's still too flaky to consistently use in close and late roles. Trying to rely on him and Marmol in late roles is asking too much from them on a team that has struggled to score runs and has been constantly been in low scoring close games. You definitely can't count on Guzman either given his injury history. Right now, the pen projects to slightly below avg. They have the prospects & if they feel they have a chance to win it all, then I think they have to look at upgrading what I mentioned. You have to consider the availability of good, young closers though. What's the incentive for the Padres to deal Bell? If we offer them a deal they can't refuse, maybe they'd have incentive, but is the upgrade worth it then? Can we afford what's left of Soriano's $6 million salary? If you look at the closers more likely to be available, they'll either be too expensive to take their salary or would cost more in prospects than they'd be worth. I just don't know who we could realistically target. You're not going to win with this pen, it's not good enough. I would look at Bell 1st, he's probably been one of the top 3 relievers in MLB over the last 3 years. Depending on what Toronto does, Downs would also be on my list as far as closers as well. My #1 target right now would be Freddy Sanchez as far as the one player that would help this team immed., but you'd still need to upgrade the pen.

I think it has a good chance to be above average now. If Marmol can get his control back, the he, Gregg, Ascanio and Guzman are pretty good - especially considering the low cost across the board. Would we have the prospects - and would the upgrade be worth the cost - to acquire a young, cheap pitcher like Soriano or Bell? Gregg hasn't been that good though, he's pitched better of late, but he's still too flaky to consistently use in close and late roles. Trying to rely on him and Marmol in late roles is asking too much from them on a team that has struggled to score runs and has been constantly been in low scoring close games. You definitely can't count on Guzman either given his injury history. Right now, the pen projects to slightly below avg. They have the prospects & if they feel they have a chance to win it all, then I think they have to look at upgrading what I mentioned.

While they have bigger holes to fill (2B and a productive utility guy), I would not object to someone like Bell or Soriano as a bullpen guy. Get a top guy like that with Guzman back and Marshall becoming the LOOGY and that pen becomes above avg. IMO. Don't forget that Marmol has been as productive as Julian Tavarez this year.

Soooo, JH is assuming he'll still be here to draft him 3 or 4 years hence..... He's walking on to a mid-major program, I think it's fair assume that he's not someone the Cubs are interested in signing, this was a courtesy pick as there have been others as well. Miami has a great baseball program They typically have mid-major recruiting classes and have been around .500 for the last 4 years in the MAC. They should be helped out by a strong 2010 Ohio HS recruiting class, but despite my bias towards Simonds (sp?), they've been mediocre. They could've been a stronger program like Kent St, Michigan, or Indiana and the fact that he is walking on gives an indicator about his talents.

I think you're being too critical of B. Jackson. While he's not Scheppers as far as what I would've liked in the 1st, he probably has the ceiling to be 7th on that list. Although he's not hitting yet, Junior Lake is a top 15 prospect IMO.

No complaints there except for the low amount of IP. I figured he would start out with a similar low K ratio like Samardzija, but that's acceptable given the low BBs.

Even though it's hypocritical for me to say this, drafting guys that struggle to make contact at the amatuer level usually doesn't get better given the vast improvement of pitching as they progress.

His delivery was very stressful on the shoulder to begin with, especially with that hard slider. After he got hit, he started to short-arm his follow-thru because of fear getting hit. Not too long after he came back from getting hit in the head, he got hit again on a comebacker. During that time of when he was at his best, him and Dotel were the toughest pitchers to pick up for RH'ed batters, they were obviously extremely deceptive.

I've stayed right next to that hotel many times.

Soooo, JH is assuming he'll still be here to draft him 3 or 4 years hence..... He's walking on to a mid-major program, I think it's fair assume that he's not someone the Cubs are interested in signing, this was a courtesy pick as there have been others as well.

I can bench a starting pitcher with a scheduled start today and replace him with a pitcher that's not throwing today, correct? Somewhat of a prevent defense.

It finally feels good to have a decent week. The brutal part of my Interleague schedule is mainly over.

To the guy who flew in from Scottsdale to go to the game and left in the top of the 8th when the score was 5-1. :wave: