It's a skill that some are better than others. true, but to say that most it is more than a guessing game would probably be wrong. You're not bobbing for apples here. Everything I've ever read on scouting is that is surrounded by doing a bunch of research, the more work gone into research, more effort they are putting into it, the more they'll get out of it. There are certain things a scout can't forecast, but he'll use his previous knowledge which might be greater than other and calculate the slotted position of a kid that'll be different than other scouts. Then, the scout that gets to know a family better will have a better idea on the intentions of the draftee and the potential signing bonus. There's enough there to separate the good scouts from the poor ones to say that scouting isn't a guessing game. That's why they evaluate players differently and why some are shocked by those who make moves that surprise many and work out (hopefully Colvin) and those who don't. It's not luck at all.