Jason Ross

I think the Shota hate is a little ridiculous at this stage and I think a lot of it deals with his last start before the playoffs. So let's have a little fun with arbitrary endpoints: Shota Imanaga from July 30th - September 19th: 3.69 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 25.8 K%, 3.5% BB% That's really good! That's over 61 innings and 10 starts. When you add in his very bad, no good day on the 25th, his numbers get much worse. His ERA jumps almost a full point to 4.49! But it was really one bad day. Fun fact, he faced Milwaukee twice in that span. He had the following numbers: 12 IP, 13 K, 2 BB, 5 ER That's...just fine. On the year he's running a 3.57 ERA and a .249 wOBA against the Brewers. The amount of hand wringing over Shota starting game 2 is real silly. He's on regular rest. He's the best option. No one on the Cubs is so good they need to dedicate more than four innings to them. Any day is going be in large part a bullpen day. Shota, Rea, Taillon, it doesn't matter...it won't change that math.

Colin Rea has horrible splits against LHP - over .100 points of wOBA. The Brewers have plenty of LHH. Colin Rea is probably a bad choice. The Brewers can roll out a lineup including Isaac Collins (130 wRC+), Yelich (138 wRC+), Turang (127 wRC+), Frelick (119 wRC+). These hitters have done well against Rea on the year, as he's given up six runs in nine innings, and has walked as many as he's struck out. You could roll out an opener, but if you're rolling out an opener for Colin Rea, who sucks against LHP, then what's the benefit of Rea over Shota? I don't believe Colin Rea is a better pitcher than Shota Imanaga. So I don't think you gain anything. Shota is a better pitcher. He's on full rest. Just give me the better pitcher, even if he's flawed. Pull him sometime in the fourth if you need to; it's playoff baseball, the bullpen horses haven't been used since Thursday and have tomorrow off. You'd have the same plan with Rea. Rea is just as flawed if not a bit more, and I don't think you want to look back on Game 2 and say "Man, I really wish I'd have rather just pitched the better guy".

Taillon would be on short rest like Matthew Boyd. Isn't that why everyone is so convinced Boyd shouldn't have gone Saturday? Javier Assad has a 15% K%. This would literally be the lowest of any qualified starter if he had enough innings. While his ERA does tend to outpace his xFIP, we cannot really expect a pitcher who had a 15% K% to do that well. He also displays little velocity. Against a team who struggles more with the fastball, I'm not sure that's an ace plan. He's just not a playoff starter. The Cubs didn't even deem him one of their 12 best pitchers. Colin Rea has been solid lately. He's also been bad against Milwaukee on the year. He's a pitcher most people didn't want signed, I don't hate the idea of Rea pitching innings but there feels like a lot of recency bias here, He has extreme R/L splits - a 4.57 xFIP against LHH. The Brewers can throw out Yelich, Collins, Frelick, Turang.... I get that Shota hasn't been as dominant as he had been last year. But he's still probably the best option the Cubs have right now. He's on regular rest, the Cubs bullpen can be used, essentially, without impunity behind him; it's well rested and Shota can be pulled the moment they want to give him some rest. I once again don't think there is some clear-cut better option. You can make equally poor arguments for every option. For every HR Shota gives up, Assad doesn't strike someone out, Colini Rea is just Colin Rea and Jamo is on 3 days rest.

I struggle to see how anyone could have strong opinions about this pre-game. I know people did, but again, it feels like people more or less setting up a scapegoat versus looking at the logic of the situation faced by the Cubs and Counsell. Door number 1 was your best starting pitcher available, both on talent and numbers who is on short rest and who hadn't had success this year against Milwaukee. Door number 2 was your fifth best SP, someone you didn't have in your original rotation to start the year, who pitched more recently than Door 1 and had bad numbers against Milwaukee in his own right. Door number 3 was a pitcher with a 15% K%, a 4.69 xFIP, hadn't pitched in a while and was deemed so good he wasn't rostered on either playoff roster. They're all bad choices. There's nothing to think here was a clear away good one. It's like passionately arguing you'd rather get a stomach virus over food poisoning because maybe you'll throw up less this way. There is nothing good about either one. Similarly, there is no obviously or statistical reason to feel strongly about anyone of the Cubs options headed into Game 1. You're gambling on bad choices. If Colin Rea on 2-days rest (not a full start) is one of your options? That says everything in an of itself. It feels silly to have any strong feelings any direction here. Then. Or now. It's very possible that alternative universe Colin Rea who gave up 5+ runs in 20% of his starts got bombed out today too. I'm not saying that people can't have opinions, but this one is just a toss-up between three bad choices. It's nothing, where I sit, to have a *strong*opinion on, before the game, after the game or whatever.

He looked good in a truncated, 5 out sample size against a worse offensive team, in a 3-0 game. He was able to use better stuff and in a far lower stakes environment. He recorded just one strikeout, however and was shielded from the left handed hitters for the most part. The pulled him right before he faced the parade of lefties at the bottom of the lineup. He is Colin Rea. A player this forum wanted nothing to do with 7 months ago. The reaction to Boyd getting a short rest start over him is almost entirely tied to hindsight than it is truly logic. Rea had pitched more recently than Boyd, has not been a pitcher who has owned Milwaukee on the year and just isn't a great pitcher on paper. He's Colin Rea. So Boyd was on short rest, all of the true remains true of the other option. This idea he was a clearly better option feels very much looking for the scapegoat of the game and pinning it on Counsel. I fully believe had Rea gotten blown up the same discourse would be over why Assad was a better option.

Colin Rea has given up 5 or more runs 6 times this year. He has made 32 appearances but 27 were proper starts; hard to give up 5 in a relief outing very often. Roughly one of every 5 starts had him giving up 5 runs. Him getting rocked against a team he hasn't faired well against is super in the cards. In the playoffs teams have incredibly quick hooks. Maybe he doesn't give up 5, but Rea getting bombed enough against Milwaukee and being pulled early is much more likely than people are wanting to accept. And the outcome of that is almost assuredly the same Soroka to Civale bridge and a game 1 comfortable win for Milwaukee in that scenario. Hindsight let us know Boyd definitely did. We have no idea what happened to Rea in the same situation. But Counsell doesn't have hindsight as a luxury. The reality is there were no good options.

An important thing to take into account is that we don't know what the Cubs plan with Boyd was. There is a lot of discourse over "guys who start on three days rest" but it's a good reminder that Boyd wasn't overly used three days prior. If the Cubs were only looking for a few innings (let's call it 3) from Boyd, we have plenty of data on "guys who were used 3 days ago in a few innings role" and it's far less bleak. Sure he was the "starter" but it may not have been a "go get me 5" thing via the plan. Regardless the Brewers torched up Soroka, have hit Rea really well this year and Javier Assad is just not a playoff starter. It was a lot of bad choices with no clearly identifiable better one. It's easy to believe Colin Rea would have gone 3 or 4 and been just fine, but it's probably almost as likely he got torched and everyone is whining they didn't start Assad, or the inverse of Assad getting lit up and bemoaning not starting Rea. When teams lose, people always want to boil down a pair of feet to lie their frustrations at. The easy answer here is Counsell, but I don't think it's so easy. It's only easy because we can't peer through the looking glass to see the alternate universe in which Colin Rea started and see how it went.

When you're at the point of being so mad that an athlete can hit the ball 415 feet and you're still mad at them, it's rarely the athlete doing something wrong in that moment.

Just four or five more runs and they'll really be cooking with gasoline.

When PCA throws his helmet when they're losing, people claim he's too emotional. Ian Happ hits a home run and feels good (regardless of the score) of hitting the baseball very far and he's a bad guy for being happy. For a sport where people want to ensure real life umpires stay for the "human element" some people want the entire thing to be played by a bunch of robots.

Catchers get hurt often. Kelly or Amaya will go down next year. Between now and then, he will likely continue to work on his catching. He's one of only three catchers 22-and-under to play innings behind the plate in 2025. He's very, very young for his position. Him getting some innings and practice yet before he's an MLB catcher is the right choice.

We're going to go live in the 8th. Come vent with us. I took a few innings off. Now I'm just sad.

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images Whenever the 2025 Chicago Cubs season comes to an end, be it to the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers this upcoming week, or someone else further down the road (or perhaps lifting the Commissioner's Trophy), one of the high-water-marks will undoubtedly be their Wild Card Round victory over the San Diego Padres. In those memories will likely be Dansby Swanson's sterling defense, the back-to-back home runs hit by Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly, Daniel Palencia lighting up the radar gun, and that controversial call in the ninth against Xander Bogaerts. What likely won't conjure warm memories was much of Game 2; instead, memories will be filled with frustrating plate appearances and a long home run hit by the other team, I also highly doubt many, if any, will think of the innings provided by Colin Rea, Mike Soroka, and Taylor Rogers. However, those innings mattered and showed the importance of what I'll dub the "Art of the Loss". Let's set the stage: The Chicago Cubs are down 3-0 on the scoreboard as the game sits in the fifth inning. The Padres have already pulled Dylan Cease, the Cubs have pulled Shota Imanaga, and it's now an attrition of the bullpen. The day before, the Padres used three of their four "top-end" bullpen arms in a loss, with Adrian Morejon, Mason Miller and Jeremiah Estrada all seeing action, and these arms will be relied upon today if the game remains close. In other words, it's an uphill battle for the Cubs. Conversely, the Cubs will show today that they want to avoid doing what the Padres' did yesterday—they want to preserve their pitching for tomorrow. Baseball Savant's win probability has the game 83/17 in favor of the Padres, so while the Cubs would never say this publicly, they know they're going to more than likely lose this game. But, while they're likely to lose the battle, with one win in hand, they can help themselves win the war by keeping the score within three from here on out. By keeping the game within three, the Padres will have to continue to exhaust their bullpen as they head toward Game 3. This job will fall to the Cubs' bullpen's underbelly; "designated losers". This name may feel like I'm mocking them. but I'm not. I think the "designated loser" is one of the more underrated and least understood roles in a bullpen. A "designated loser" has an important job; hold the opposition and keep the score close. By keeping the score close, you give your offense a chance to drag yourself back into the game. Every big comeback in major league history has had some form a "designated loser" holding the opposition close. You also force the other team to continue to use their best relievers if the game is close enough. This is their job today more than anything. With 10 outs to go, the Cubs make the transition: they remove Caleb Thielbar, one of their most trusted arms, and insert fifth-starter Colin Rea. Rea was not on the Wild Card Roster to make a start; in a short three-game set, he's here to eat outs if called upon. As the righty enters in the bottom of the sixth with two out already, he's greeted to Freddy Fermin, a light-hitting catcher who sports a 77 wRC+. The Padres' catcher puts forth little resistance and is put down without much worry. This was a soft landing, but life will get much more difficult in the the game as the inning ticks over to the seventh and the Padres get to roll their lineup over to the top. A bad seventh inning and the Padres could break the game open, tack on two or three insurance runs, and put the game well out of reach. Mike Schildt has been aggressive all series, but I don't think he'd be so aggressive as to use Miller and Suarez in a six-run lead. Instead, he'd look to rest their bullpen a bit, a pure luxury in the postseason. A close game will force the assertive manager to use these players in a second straight game. How the Cubs' pitchers react will play a roll tomorrow. First to the plate comes Fernando Tatis Jr, who, despite a poor series, is a great hitter. The eccentric outfielder has a career wRC+ of 137, is having another fantastic year at the plate, and is always a threat to hit a home run or cause chaos on the bases. And yet, Rea takes just two pitches and ends any fear of what a leadoff runner would do, getting Tatis out to start. Next, Luis Arraez was up. Not much to this one: as in classic Luis Arraez fashion, the professional hitter muscled an inside pitch to his pull side and successfully dropped the ball in front of Sieya Suzuki. The hit wasn't so much the issue, but who was next: fifth-inning hero Manny Machado. Machado has already terrorized Cubs pitching today, as he previously homered off of Shota Imanaga to open the game up from 1-0 to 3-0 with a single swing of the bat. Now, with a runner on again, he can really begin to put this game to bed. Rea gets ahead of the third baseman using a combination of fastballs and cutters, leading to a 1-2 count. If he hangs his pitch, it could be ugly. Instead, the Cubs' pitcher executes a great slider off the plate, and gets out number two. Rea isn't entirely out of the woods, as Padres' outfielder Jackson Merrill strides to the plate. Merrill crushes right-handed pitching, carrying a 135 wRC+ and 14 of his 16 home runs against them. The hitter is also feeling it, as he had a 160 wRC+ in September. This may be more dangerous than Manny Machado on paper. Rea is still just one pitch away from turning a three-run deficit into a five-run deficit, even after he got the last out. This wouldn't really change the Cubs' chances to win, as Savant now had the game with an 89% San Diego win probability, but would force the Padres to keep the A-team in on their end. In that regard, this is a huge plate appearance. Danger is averted again, as Rea uses his cutter effectively, jamming Merrill a bit, forcing him to harmlessly fly out to Seiya Suzuki. A job well done, indeed. In a perfect world, the Cubs' offense would have added a run in the prior inning. While it would still be unlikely for the Cubs to pull out a win, it would give the Cubs' bullpen a little wiggle room. Sadly, in the real world, the Padres brought in all-world reliever Mason Miller, and Miller quickly struck out all three batters he faced. The Cubs remain perceptibly close to falling further behind. The top of the next frame starts with right-handed-hitting Xander Bogaerts leading off, whom the Cubs leave Rea into deal with. On an 0-1 pitch, the Cubs' hurler gets a harmless flyout from the Padres' shortstop. What seems like an entire parade's worth of left-handed hitters await the Cubs, who quickly decide that Rea's day was over, and outside of a single given to Arraez, the pitcher has done his job. Next up? Trade deadline acquisition and, importantly, left-handed reliever, Taylor Rogers. Another pitcher in the "designated loser" portion of the Cubs' playoff pecking order. With left-handed hitters Ryan O'Hearn, Gavin Sheets and Jake Cronenworth due up, the Cubs decide to play the numbers and go with Rogers. The Cubs' lefty has been much better against LHH, with a 3.81 xFIP and far better strikeout numbers than against righties. The deadline acquisition gets O'Hearn to ground out, at which point Mike Schildt throws a wrench into the equation, pinch-hitting Bryce Johnson (who has a 105 wRC+ in roughly 30 PA's against LHP in 2025) for Gavin Sheets (89 wRC+ against LHP). Rogers has surrendered seven home runs on the year, four of them to right-handed hitters. That 3.81 xFIP against LHH jumps to 4.54 against the opposite platoon. As has been the state since Colin Rea entered the game, one bad pitch and the the lead will grow to a near-insurmountable margin. New hitter? No sweat, apparently, as the Cubs' pitcher navigates the switch well, getting Johnson to fly out to Pete Crow-Armstrong. The score remains 3-0. The eighth inning is much like the seventh in that the Cubs still cannot push across any offense, but an important development occurs: Robert Suarez entered the game to record the final out. Suarez is a heck of an arm, and was unused in Game 1. The Padres are now fairly committed to Suarez pitching the ninth; as long as the Cubs' bullpen doesn't implode, it's likely now that even in a four-run game, Suarez is handling the final frame. Rogers comes back out to face left-handed hitter Jake Cronenworth, whom he deals with quickly, and then Michael Soroka finishes he top of the ninth, getting both of the aforementioned Padres' hitters, Fermin and Tatis, to ground out to finish the job. Ten outs, one hit, one strikeout, and most importantly, no runs. As the Cubs' last out on offense was recorded, the scoreboard still read Padres: 3, Cubs: 0. Fans walked out of Wrigley watching a loss. People were miffed that the Cubs couldn't get to Dylan Cease, or in awe of how good Mason Miller was. There were nerves about the winner-takes-all Game 3 on deck. What they may not have realized, though, is that the Cubs' "designated losers" had just laid groundwork for later. Game 3 would end in a win for the Cubs. One of the most important moments was when Cubs' first baseman Michael Busch hit a rocket off of Padres' closer Robert Suarez in the bottom of the seventh inning. The pitch Busch hit is notable for a few reasons. First, it was the 47th pitch Suarez had thrown in around a 24-hour period. Next, it was only 97.6mph, This is notable because the slowest fastball Suarez threw the night before was 98.1mph, a pitch he averaged 98.6mph on the full year. Lastly, the location: center cut. On the night, Suarez has only thrown 42% of his pitches in the zone, down from 56% the day before. This was as "get-me-over" of a fastball as you'd get from Suarez, and Busch hit it 400 feet. This is what the Art of Losing looks like. It's not really very pretty; I outlined a single strikeout over 10 outs. It came in a three-run loss in which the offense did next-to-nothing. Colin Rea, Taylor Rogers and Michael Soroka didn't wow anyone with overwhelming stuff, and they didn't will the team back to a win; they just did their job. They did yeoman's work. There was no standing ovation as Michael Soroka induced a second ground ball in the ninth, but instead a crowd full of nervous energy and a bit of feeling "here we go again", despite the job that they had done. They didn't steal the show, but they lost with purpose and forced the Padres' hand. I can't promise that the exact reason Suarez's fastball got smashed by Busch was because of our unsung heroes, the "designated losers", but I can't believe that it didn't in some way play into it. And while it wasn't a game-winner, getting the lead up to three just felt good. It's the kind of moment that changed the energy at 1600 W. Addison and around the team as they head into Milwaukee. So, ultimately, while the "designated losers" may not be the obvious heroes who win games (in fact, it's in this nature that they will almost never be capable of that), it's these little moments they handle with aplomb that can pay dividends for others. They're the glue that allows for a historic comeback, and can sometimes effects games in the future for simply losing well. They're easily forgotten, but today, we should probably all say a big "thank you" to our misunderstood, and often overlooked, "designated losers". What do you think caused Robert Saurez's fastball to land 400 feet away? Do you think the "designated loser" is an important role? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article

I do wonder if at the end of the game Civale, after throwing 100 pitches, will have a "forearm tightness" and get replaced with Assad.

That feels like a contract that in two years everyone hates. He's a fun bat, but 33-year old DH with contact issues feels like a bad 5 year investment

Tucker went 3-8 last series. Ballesteros went 0-1 with a K. I get that Ballesteros represents a mystery box, but c'mon.

You don't assess value after the deadline, you assess it on the deadline. Whatever happens afterwards is irrelevant for any baseball team who doesn't employ a full-time psychic on staff. There is no going back in time. You can only guess what will come next. It's all opportunity cost. The opportunity cost at the deadline was incredibly steep based on all reporting and the fact none of the big arms went. The prices for even the Merril Kelly's were pretty hefty.

I mean, in 2026! Neither was the answer for 2025, as one was hurt and the other one was already in the lineup. Sure! But two things even for next year: 1. Steele is coming off an injury to his elbow, how long it takes for him not only to make his debut (it doesn't appear to be in April) but for him to get to speed 2. Injuries will occur between OD and the end of the year. This year the Cubs had to IL Shota, Steele, Horton, Taillon, and Assad. Expect most of the rotation to see the IL next year. They need more than those two.

MacKenzie Gore, Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara were all available in some fashion. Two of the three of them have been very good since the ASB.

...did you not see the prices this deadline? Shane Bieber who hadn't throw above High-A, coming off a TJS went for a borderline top-100 prospect. The SP asks were reportedly very high and the trades that did go down all went for more than SP's had been recently. We can call a spade a spade. That isn't me necessarily saying they shouldn't have overpaid. In fact, I wrote a whole article talking about it here, so I bring receipts.

I think it's a little column A and a little column B. They outpitched their peripherals, likely in part, to their excellent defense. In the playoffs, you really only need four starters (though teams have proven recently you can do with less, sometimes two or three). They also got more from Cade Horton than anyone expected, and had he not fractured a rib a week before the seasons end, I think the Cubs SP's numbers would be generally fine for now. They could have also overpaid and gotten one more guy, or had bought one more impact reliever.

Listen, no matter what ya'll have going on today just know this: you aren't sitting here with the realization that whenever this is over, you are scheduled to go live an react about this debacle. That'll be real fun.

Someone has to pitch game-4. I'd rather not get swept...so let's hope we see Boyd again.

Yeah, he's been really bad. Have to wonder if he rushed back from injury and his mechanics are off some. He was really good in Washigon and hurt by a bad defense! And the stuff is there. I don't know. I barely have anything optimistic to say today and ya'll know how rare that is. It's game 1, though. And it doesn't matter if you lose by 1 or 50, it only counts once.