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Jason Ross

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Everything posted by Jason Ross

  1. Jason Ross
    I'd have signed Correa, but also I didn't have any of his medicals at the time, so I'll give myself a break. I wrongly focused too much on arm-strength when it came to SS defense - should have learned a lesson from the plus-plus defensive season Hoerner posted at short with a weak arm. My fear was that his best years would be with mediocre Cubs teams and by the time the team was winning 90-games he'd have been looking at a shift to second. We're 3-years in and he's once again on a 4-win pace with no signs of needing to move off short yet. He's been incredibly consistent in value (even if streaky at the bat). And he's been absolutely excellent value. He' have to entirely faceplant the rest of his contract post-2026 for him not to be a break-even player. Considering he's being paid just south of $200m, that's really impressive. It's hard to get surplus out of a contract that big.
  2. Jason Ross
    I fully admit to being wary of his contract when signed and I didn't know what to expect from it, but Swanson has been a banger of a contract. He's streaky at the plate, but he has done nothing but add positive value at the end of the day.
  3. Jason Ross
    Yeah. Peterson is a good Taillon type upgrade. When everyone is healthy, he'd be a good 4 or 5. He can stabilize the rotation for a few weeks while the Cubs can figure out the upper end SP.
  4. Jason Ross
    Has he been one? His underlying FIP is 3.85 and his xFIP is 4.05. his LOB% is 60%: unsustainably high. He's an extreme ground ball pitcher. Did you see the Mets defense today? They entered today with a -8 OAA. He goes to the Cubs who have arguably the best infield defense in baseball. I don't want to make him out to be a star, but I'd expect the elite ground ball pitcher to be closer to his xFIP with the elite defense of the Cubs. And getting a 4.05 xFIP pitcher for three months for Mathis? Think that's fair value.
  5. Jason Ross
    Just not sure Mathis has a ton of value right now. Limited defensively and hasn't hit for a ton of HR power. He has a pathway to the MLB but it's pretty narrow and narrowing as we move forward. As a possible 3b? Far more interesting. But he has 2 starts there in South Bend and it seems like a pretty long shot. At 1b, a 116 wRC+ is just less exciting. Mathis is a prospect, but I think value wise his 2nd round pedigree is doing some od the heavy lifting. And less-so Mathis' on field production.
  6. Jason Ross
    I'm fine with Mathis going. He just hasn't wow'd me offensively yet. He's good, and his approach is pretty solid, but a 116 wRC+ from a DH/1b at A+ isn't a home run prospect. Mathis isnt bad and the Cubs did give up a real prospect but I think he's pretty expendable all considered.
  7. Jason Ross
    Cole Mathis goes the other way.
  8. Jason Ross
    Yeah I don't super hate Peterson. He's not "good" but he does a pretty okay job on getting whiffs and Ks, and gets a ton of ground balls. His xFIP is 2 points higher than his ERA. He won't win the Cubs the division, but he probably stabilizes the rotation for a little bit and I'm going to assume he's cheap. A lot of ground balls with the Cubs sounds like a good idea.
  9. Jason Ross
    The (former) Mets starter will presumably have an easy time joining the Cubs considering they're in New York. Return is Cole Mathis:
  10. Jason Ross
    The Mets suck haha.
  11. Jason Ross
    It isn't about predicting one anecdotal story about one player's month. The premise was always "the Cubs offense is good, bordering on very good". No team gets a month of data exactly the way you predict it. Yes, the Cubs got a historic month from PCA. They got really bad months from good hitters too. It balances out. I've got the same belief in the offense in July. And chances are someone else will carry a lot of the load. Maybe Busch. Or Maybe Suzuki. And someone will struggle.
  12. Jason Ross
    Negativity gets views.
  13. Jason Ross
    There was a study I can find in 2022 looking at consistent hitters and inconsistent ones. Funnily enough, the most consistent hitter of 2022 (by one metric) was...Patrick Wisdom and the least consistent hitter was Mike Trout. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/measuring-this-seasons-most-and-least-consistent-hitters/ It's old data but it goes to speak to the topic at hand at least. Basically, while consistency is a good thing, it also takes a pretty impressive amount of talent to put up those monster weeks, as well.
  14. Jason Ross
    I think "Tyson Miller" feels a potential outcome for him. I don't see starter, but I do see the potential for "RHH who really can use chase to get righties out".
  15. Jason Ross
    I'm always interested in new ideas. I'm about to be real bored in the next 48 hours; wife is away, and summer break is on. I'm headed out of town end of next week, but about 3pm tomorrow and then I've got plenty of researching time. And then after mini-vacation too.
  16. Jason Ross
    Thats a really good one! And one I will *probably* have to look into more than just the 9th inning. If you're patient, I'll make sure to address it next week because unlike some of the others one (and no shade to them they're good too!) they're more opinionated and this feels like it has some sort of an answer. And I want to give it the attention and research it deserves!
  17. Jason Ross
    For all of the complaints on Swanson, he's up to an 89 wRC+ and entered the game with a 1.7 fWAR on the year. He doesn't always do it the most pretty, but he has been a consistent value provider.
  18. Jason Ross
    "Dansby Swanson after his two home run performance today: is he the greatest hitter of all time?"
  19. Jason Ross
  20. Jason Ross
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  22. Jason Ross
    Dansby is heating up, so I suspect Ian Happ will go in a prolonged slump for the next 30 days. For whatever will fans on X and Reddit have if both are decent/good at the same time?
  23. Jason Ross
    Dansby hot streak initiated.
  24. Jason Ross
    1-4 line-out isn't a typical addition to a scorecard
  25. Jason Ross
    The offense is fun again.
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