Jason Ross

Strength and stability up the middle are the Cubs' greatest points of pride entering 2024. For at least another few years, they want Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner working the double-play pivot, and they expect big value from each. The Starter: Nico Hoerner 2023 Stats: 7.1% BB%, 12.1% K%, .283/.346/.383, 102 wRC+, 4.7 fWAR 2024 Projections: ZiPS: 6.6 BB%, 12.0% K%, .276/.335/.393, 99 wRC+, 4.0 fWAR Scouting Report: On the surface, Hoerner can feel almost ho-hum at times. He’s a great defender, he makes a ton of contact, but he doesn't do it all that loudly, on the stat page. For example, I know he had a great 2023 season, and yet I forgot he finished just shy of the 5-win mark, according to WAR. That put Hoerner just outside of the top-20 most valuable position players in baseball. The good news for the Cubs is that there is very little in Hoerner’s profile that suggests this won’t continue for the 2024 campaign. ZiPS thinks that Hoerner should continue on his 4+ win path, and I have to agree. While Hoerner isn’t going to wow us with his power, he should make a lot of contact and play great defense. He's a terror on the bases, too, which only drives his value higher. There's even hope for more sustained, well-rounded offense from him in 2024, as our own Matthew Trueblood wrote about in January. If there is any real concern over Hoerner, it's that he’s had some injury issues in the past, spending time on the IL in every season prior to 2023. With that being the only concern, the Cubs should rest easy for the time in which Hoerner is going to be in the lineup. Other Options: Nico is the unquestioned starting option at second base for the Cubs. Coming off back-to-back 4+ fWAR seasons, the slick-fielding Horner will start most of the games at the position. Despite that, the Cubs have built up a pretty impressive group of players behind Hoerner who could fill in for a rest day, or a dreaded trip to the IL. For most off days, the Cubs could turn to one of three players projected to make the Opening Day roster; Christopher Morel, Nick Madrigal and Miles Mastrobuoni. All three of these players are likely in line for starts at third, but will also be available to shift to second. Each offers a slightly different skill set, so who gets the start could rely on what the team needs; Morel provides power, Madrigal brings bat-to-ball skills, and Mastrobuoni has a good plate approach. All three, as well, could fill in for a short-term IL stint. While not an option at the start of the 2024 campaign, Matt Shaw could also factor into the position. Shaw has been focusing on learning and honing his abilities at third, but much like the other three players mentioned, he may be more of a natural option at second, if needed. It would take a few things for the Cubs to end up needing Shaw at the keystone (a long-term injury to Hoerner in the second half of the season, coupled with a strong first half of the season for Shaw in Iowa, for starters), but it’s on the table. The Big Question: What do the Cubs do if Nico needs an extended IL stint? Despite playing in 150 games last season, Hoerner has had a penchant for ending up on the IL throughout his professional career. He’s had broken bones, as well as soft-tissue injuries, so it’s likely that Hoerner will land on the IL at some point during the season. It’s never easy to replace a player who’s put up back-to-back four-win seasons, but the Cubs would be in a unique position to replace him with quantity or quality, depending on the length of the absence. The Cubs are in great shape at second base. They have a young, energetic, balanced star at the position, and a number of alternatives on whom to call if that star goes down. In a spring filled with uncertainty, this is one area of comfortable clarity.

On Fri., Mar. 15, the Chicago Cubs' Breakout Team will take on the future stars from their crosstown rivals, the Chicago White Sox. The game will be broadcast through ESPN+ and the Marquee Broadcast Network, next Friday at 4 PM Central. This will be a great chance for everyone to get to see the best prospects from each team. First, let's talk quickly about who might stand out for the South Siders. Chicago White Sox Preview: Entering the Breakout games, the White Sox farm system has not received many plaudits, generally being ranked among the bottom five in baseball. Recently, Keith Law of The Athletic ranked them as low as 28th. Despite their low rankings as a system, the White Sox Breakout roster does have a few interesting players expected to play, headlined by 2021 first-round selection and current top prospect, shortstop Colson Montomery. Sox 2023 first-rounder Jacob Gonzalez and switch-hitting catcher Edgar Quero (the jewel of last summer's Lucas Giolito-and-Reynaldo López trade) will also highlight the roster. Chicago Cubs Preview: The Cubs' system, unlike that of the Sox, has been on the rise in recent years, being ranked as high as number one by FanGraphs's Eric Logenhagen. The Cubs have drafted and traded well in recent years, and their Breakout roster will showcase many of their top prospects, featuring 11 of NSBB's top-20 prospects from this spring. Included on the roster are the top four prospects in the system: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cade Horton, Owen Caissie and Matt Shaw. The game will be a fun way to view the Cubs' prospects all in one game. Predicting the Cubs' Breakout Lineup: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF James Triantos, 2b Matt Shaw, 3b Owen Caissie, RF Haydn McGeary, DH BJ Murray, 1b Moises Ballesteros, C Jefferson Rojas, SS Kevin Alcantara, LF Starting Pitcher: Cade Horton While the game is ultimately a mere exhibition, creating an "all-star" lineup of Cubs prospects was a fun project. A few of these players feel like locks in the above slots, as Pete Crow-Armstrong, Owen Caissie, Jefferson Rojas and Matt Shaw are all in camp as non-roster-invitees, and are among the best in the entire system. I did consider starting Shaw at second, but with how much he's been working at third base, figured the team would want to keep him working there. I could see a situation wherein Murray gets the nod at third and Shaw at second, or even shortstop, but think the Cubs will give Triantos a start and this was the best way to make that happen. When and where possible, as well, I also tried to defer to players expected to start at higher levels of the system. On the mound, Horton is the logical start. He's the best prospect in the system (and arguably the best, period), and deserves the honor to lead the Breakout team onto the field. Horton won't pitch long, however, and I expect the Cubs to give as many players as possible a chance to play in the game. That goes for the offensive players, too, so even though prospects like Pablo Aliendo and Christian Franklin may not start, they should all get appearances. What to watch for: This section could really just be all about the top prospects, but instead, I'm going to try to focus on some of the second- and third-tier players. I'm really interested to see Porter Hodge, whom I wrote about earlier this offseason, on the mound. His breaking stuff is some of the best in the system, and hopefully he shows some improved control. In the same vein, former third-round pick Drew Gray, who could be in line for a real breakout season, should get into the game. The lefty has mid-rotation stuff, but still is working through control and command issues after his professional career essentially started with Tommy John surgery. We're getting to a point where it's "sink or swim" time for Kohl Franklin; who absolutely looks the part but just hasn't found enough strikes. With a strong spring and start to his 2024, perhaps Franklin can finally cash in on the promise he flashes. Moving away from the mound, someone like Pablo Aliendo, who like Gray has "2024 Breakout" written all over him, will be fun to see in the game. Likely catching the second half, watch for Aliendo's impressive raw power to show itself. Speaking of power, I'm thrilled to see a late-round selection like Haydn McGeary get into this game. From a personal standpoint, McGeary had committed to my alma mater (Kentucky) out of Colorado Mesa University. His story of being a D-2 prospect-cum-draft success story has been really fun to watch--almost as fun as when McGeary sends baseballs into orbit. Lastly, Christian Franklin has apparently been putting in a lot of work and time in the weight room. There's always been fourth-outfielder upside in his game, and he has the makeup to stick in that kind of role even if it's all he can be, but this could be the year he really busts onto the scene. He might not have the upside of Crow-Armstrong, but could be a sneaky useful option for the Cubs in 2025 and beyond, off the bench. With the Cubs Breakout Team set to take the field in around a week's time, who are you excited to see take the field? Did I forget to talk about someone? And what do you think the lineup will be? Let us know in the comment section below!